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Once again View, the design doesn't have to be foolproof. Just better than the current system. And given that there are millions of fools out there driving right now its not very hard to do better. The existing control systems for driving are easily better than the average driver. That's right now.
(10-14-2015, 10:54 AM)SammyOES Wrote: [ -> ]Once again View, the design doesn't have to be foolproof. Just better than the current system. And given that there are millions of fools out there driving right now its not very hard to do better. The existing control systems for driving are easily better than the average driver. That's right now.

He makes a really good point, even if it's a big depressing. You're arguing logically, and I agree with you utterly. But people often prefer situations which demonstrably result in less safe and less desirable outcomes in which they feel "in control." His examples are good ones, particularly the preference for the suburbs- not everyone can be convinced by mere facts that the safer situation really is.

I'm curious how long people will insist it is their right to continue to endanger themselves and others driving, in the face of data proving that computers do it much better. It might be quite a while.
Sure, and that's a fair point.  Although I think Google is clearly showing that an enormous reduction in accidents IS the outcome.  

But I was more responding to his previous post that was talking about making automation systems foolproof.
(10-14-2015, 07:37 AM)Viewfromthe42 Wrote: [ -> ]The bar may not be zero accidents, but it will have to be an enormous reduction (i.e. 50-99% reduction, regardless of uptake).

The (misguided) sense of control is far more valuable than actual safety. Just ask parents who move out of cities and into less dense places: they often cite safety, even as less dense neighbourhoods and rural areas are noticeably *less* safe for their children, even
as the mistaken perception is the reverse.

The 50% bar has already been met by present technology. As for the second, I agree, and the way this will happen (and indeed is already happening) is that people will cede control gradually. Radar warning, auto parking, rear alarm, automatic transmission, automatic on-and-off lights, anti-lock breaks, governed SUVs that slow down when taking tight turns, you name it. One by one the computer takes control over an aspect of the drive (including route planning using GPS) and one day before you know it, you simply say: drive.
I've always wondered if insurance companies will offer discounts for drivers that let the car do all the driving when they are safer, or if people that don't have self-driving cars will see increasing premiums.
This video always gets me right in the feels.

I think insurance companies will offer discounts for self driving cars. But depending on how liability ends up playing out it could be a totally different industry.

Right now insurance companies pay for mistakes their drivers make. But who pays for mistakes the self driving cars make? Is that on the insurer or on the manufacturer or on the maker of the software. If I don't have to worry about my liability in case I make a mistake and end up seriously injuring someone - my insurance costs would go way down.
It would all depend on the investigation and specific circumstances, I think. I don't think it's black and white. Sort of like how some accidents are caused by mistakes by the human drivers, but a few are caused by hardware deficiencies which are the vehicle manufacturer's fault.
My guess is that within the next 30 years a person will need special permission to be allowed to drive in a non-automated mode. Very few people will have or need drivers licenses.

As a person who will greatly benefit from automated vehicles because I can't drive, I look forward to the day I can get in my own vehicle and tell it where to drive me. It can't come soon enough.
I feel like 30 years is probably too soon. I think it'll take many of the current generation of drivers dying off before driving privileges will be significantly restricted.

But I have no idea - and I think it'll be really cool to see how things develop. I never would have predicted the progress made over the last 5 years - particularly in the political arenas in getting these cars on real roads and doing real driving.
The Tesla software update opened up autopilot...
(10-16-2015, 05:21 PM)notmyfriends Wrote: [ -> ]The Tesla software update opened up autopilot...

Yes indeedy!



Very much a "Cruise Control +".
I expect that we'll see a significant increase in development and uptake in driver-assist devices and full on automation as the baby boomers run the risk of not being able to drive anymore in 10-15 years. It will probably be more cost effective for seniors to continue to own their own car and be able to remain in their current living conditions (be it a house, apartment, condo, or retirement community) than for most of them to ultimately lose their licenses and end up needing other services or suffer isolation. For instance, I'm not sure that services like MobilityPlus would be able to offer an adequate public transit option for seniors unable to walk to their nearest transit stop, or from the transit stop that is closest to their destination. Might a group of neighbours go splits on a self-driving car?

As an example, I currently have a friend who lives alone in Waterloo but her family lives in three different locations more than 90 minutes away in three different directions that are not currently served by other transportation modes (and aren't likely to be any time soon). She remains in Waterloo because her friends and community is here. If she had the option of a self-driving car, she could maintain a degree of independence and the ability to visit family without having to rely on friends or family to make the three-hour round trip to pick her up for a family gathering.

Since it was the baby boomer generation that brought us the need for a minivan, why not the self-driving car too?
A little birdy told me that the Fountain St bridge over the 401 is open as of today! Can anyone confirm?
I'd be very surprised by that; while I haven't driven up top, I drive under it every day and there are still loads of construction crews crawling all over it. It was just exposed beams not too many weeks ago.