Population and Housing

[tomh009]

No.


Statscan uses the municipalities as fixed by the province and then decides the metropolitan areas on commuter traffic. So if Brampton is included in the Hamilton CMA, that means a large number of people commute from Brampton to Hamilton for work.

"To be included in the CMA or CA, other adjacent municipalities must have a high degree of integration with the core, as measured by commuting flows derived from previous census place of work data."

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/92-1...ef-eng.htm

Really???  they can do what they want:

"[b]4. Spatial contiguity rule:[/b] 
CSDs that do not meet a commuting flow threshold may be included in a CMA or CA, and CSDs that do meet a commuting flow threshold may be excluded from a CMA or CA"

Get out of StatsCan Jail card 

That's to prevent the creation of CMAs that consist of multiple disconnected islands. It really isn't politics.

[MacBerry]

Really???  they can do what they want:

"[b]4. Spatial contiguity rule:[/b] 
CSDs that do not meet a commuting flow threshold may be included in a CMA or CA, and CSDs that do meet a commuting flow threshold may be excluded from a CMA or CA"

Get out of StatsCan Jail card 

That's to prevent the creation of CMAs that consist of multiple disconnected islands. It really isn't politics.

The truth is that Hamilton as the "CMA center" has been on the decline for 20 years.

The point is that politicians (local, provincial and federal) would go ballistic, if Hamilton was assigned a smaller status than it currently has. Hence include Burligton to make it look all nice, clean and growing. Hamilton is the Buffalo of Southern Ontario and now it looks all squeeky clean in the Census.

To not change this CMA is wrong and politically motivated as no person would dare propose change for fear of lossing a promotion or a job.

[jamincan]

You're obviously completely fixed in your view, so I don't really see much point in arguing with you further. Nevertheless, this isn't a matter of opinion. You can research exactly why Burlington is included in the Hamilton CMA and I've already done the grunt work and explained in detail why it belongs in the CMA quite some time ago, with references you can review yourself. I'd encourage you to research this yourself and contact an actual statistician at Statistics Canada about why Burlington is part of Hamilton - they will respond. Do with that what you will, but you are categorically wrong in this matter.

[Bytor]

No.


Statscan uses the municipalities as fixed by the province and then decides the metropolitan areas on commuter traffic. So if Brampton is included in the Hamilton CMA, that means a large number of people commute from Brampton to Hamilton for work.

"To be included in the CMA or CA, other adjacent municipalities must have a high degree of integration with the core, as measured by commuting flows derived from previous census place of work data."

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/92-1...ef-eng.htm

Really???  they can do what they want:

"[b]4. Spatial contiguity rule:[/b] 
CSDs that do not meet a commuting flow threshold may be included in a CMA or CA, and CSDs that do meet a commuting flow threshold may be excluded from a CMA or CA"

Get out of StatsCan Jail card 

And Burlington touches Hamilton so that rule (which is made to keep a CMS contiguous and prevent holes) doesn't apply here. If you look up the census data on statcan.ca you can see that almost as many people commute to a different census division as stay inside Burlington.

[westwardloo]

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-qu...01-eng.htm

KWC grew by 2.8% between 2018-2019 highest CMA in canada during that period. Next closest was London with 2.3%. Good numbers hopefully it keeps up over the next decade!

[jeffster]

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-qu...01-eng.htm

KWC grew by 2.8% between 2018-2019 highest CMA in canada during that period. Next closest was London with 2.3%. Good numbers hopefully it keeps up over the next decade!

Was London tied with Ottawa? I read a reports the Ottawa was 2nd only behind Kitchener-Waterloo. Perhaps the report was only looking at cities beyond 1/2 million or the top 10 in terms of size. Ottawa was, btw, 2.3% as well.

Last I heard for Kitchener we were inching towards 270,000.

[panamaniac]

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-qu...01-eng.htm

KWC grew by 2.8% between 2018-2019 highest CMA in canada during that period. Next closest was London with 2.3%. Good numbers hopefully it keeps up over the next decade!

Was London tied with Ottawa? I read a reports the Ottawa was 2nd only behind Kitchener-Waterloo. Perhaps the report was only looking at cities beyond 1/2 million or the top 10 in terms of size. Ottawa was, btw, 2.3% as well.

Last I heard for Kitchener we were inching towards 270,000.

Yes, London and Ottawa (Ontario side) were tied.

[jamincan]

It seems we're starting to see the effects of people being pushed out of Toronto. From what I've seen elsewhere, when you break down the numbers a huge portion of the growth of basically all the CMAs in Ontario outside of the GTA is due to migration out of the GTA.

[taylortbb]

It seems we're starting to see the effects of people being pushed out of Toronto. From what I've seen elsewhere, when you break down the numbers a huge portion of the growth of basically all the CMAs in Ontario outside of the GTA is due to migration out of the GTA.

I actually feel like they numbers tell the opposite story. If people were being pushed out of Toronto you'd expect to see growth in CMAs like Hamilton, Oshawa, Barrie, Guelph, etc. But all of those CMAs are slower growing than Toronto itself, and much slower than the Kitchener metro. Some of them have lower cost of living than Waterloo Region, while also being closer to Toronto for commuting.

I think the stats make it clear there's something about Waterloo Region specifically that is attracting people. Most likely the incredible job growth currently occurring in the tech sector.

[jeffster]

It seems we're starting to see the effects of people being pushed out of Toronto. From what I've seen elsewhere, when you break down the numbers a huge portion of the growth of basically all the CMAs in Ontario outside of the GTA is due to migration out of the GTA.

I actually feel like they numbers tell the opposite story. If people were being pushed out of Toronto you'd expect to see growth in CMAs like Hamilton, Oshawa, Barrie, Guelph, etc. But all of those CMAs are slower growing than Toronto itself, and much slower than the Kitchener metro. Some of them have lower cost of living than Waterloo Region, while also being closer to Toronto for commuting.

I think the stats make it clear there's something about Waterloo Region specifically that is attracting people. Most likely the incredible job growth currently occurring in the tech sector.

I think KWC is receiving more than their share when it comes to immigration. And with people migrating to Canada from those countries, KWC is a good choice because they have a population here already. Much like how Kitchener grew a lot in the 1800's and early 1900's due to its German heritage, and Cambridge its Portuguese and Newfoundland heritage.

It will be interesting to see the next census when it comes out in 2022. But I do think the next 10 years are going to be huge for the trip-cities. And with the LRT expanding to Cambridge, the how region is going to be buzzing.

[jamincan]

I can't seem to track it down, but I think I saw someone post a table on twitter breaking down intraprovincial migration out of Toronto, and Hamilton and Oshawa were the biggest destinations followed by Kitchener and Simcoe (as I recall). In the case of Toronto, there is massive international migration into Toronto (almost 140k people), but there is also a large migration out of Toronto into other CMAs in Ontario (almost 40k people in 2019). Partly that is just normal movement of people, but it seems that with the massive increase of immigration into Toronto in the last three years, there has been a proportionate increase in migration out of Toronto.

For reference, this tool on the Statcan site is handy: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/71-6...03-eng.htm I can't seem to track down the actual table showing components of intraprovincial migration though.

[taylortbb]

I can't seem to track it down, but I think I saw someone post a table on twitter breaking down intraprovincial migration out of Toronto, and Hamilton and Oshawa were the biggest destinations followed by Kitchener and Simcoe (as I recall). 

I'd definitely expect Hamilton and Oshawa to be top destinations for people moving out of Toronto, but their population growth rates are far lower than the Kitchener metro. Hamilton was actually one of the slowest growing metros in Canada. If we get less migration than Hamilton does from Toronto, but have more than double their growth rate, then our growth must mostly be from sources other than Toronto.

[Rainrider22]

Are you assuming that people are moving with the expectation of commuting back to Toronto to work? Perhaps people are moving to Kitchener not just for housing bit for work.

[taylortbb]

Are you assuming that people are moving with the expectation of commuting back to Toronto to work?  Perhaps people are moving to Kitchener not just for housing bit for work.

I expect few people would commute from KW, and that's good. I'd rather our population growth come from job growth rather than becoming a bedroom community. 

I think my point is, people assume that KW is growing because people get priced out of Toronto, but I don't see any evidence that's the case. If the stats are correct that more people move from Toronto to Hamilton than KW, but we have much faster population growth than Hamilton, then most of KW's population growth must come from other sources.

[jamincan]

My point isn't that our growth is just Toronto growth redirected due to housing prices. My point is simply that demographics are starting to show the effects of high housing prices in the GTA.