Welcome Guest!
In order to take advantage of all the great features that Waterloo Region Connected has to offer, including participating in the lively discussions below, you're going to have to register. The good news is that it'll take less than a minute and you can get started enjoying Waterloo Region's best online community right away.
or Create an Account




Thread Rating:
  • 0 Vote(s) - 0 Average
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
General Politics Discussion
#31
(05-24-2018, 12:02 PM)panamaniac Wrote: Well, that would imply that things were not awful under a DoFo minority government, so I could live with that.  What it could do is change the dynamic if things WERE dreadful under a DoFo minority.

My point is more though that minority governments are pretty good at keeping their "worst" policies to themselves until they get the majority. The actions of a minority government are generally much more moderate/popular than the actions of a majority government, but voters see the actions of the minority government and believe its an accurate representation of what will happen with a majority.

Hopefully that made sense. Smile

(05-24-2018, 12:02 PM)panamaniac Wrote: Personally, I don't see any satisfactory outcomes, just possibilities that might be less bad than others.   I'm still seriously considering whether to decline my ballot on election day (my riding, Ottawa-Vanier, will go Liberal).

I'm with you. I didn't vote Liberal last time and I'm not going to this time either. Will probably vote Green again, not that I agree with them on everything but they at least have a number of policies that I strongly support (one school board!) and probably best reflect my opinion of the existing parties.
Reply


#32
Declining ballots is partially how we wound up with Donald Trump and Stephen Harper. Trump had some of the worst turnouts, and didn't boost Republican numbers, just that independents got more votes, and overall voters stayed home.

Closer to that home, in 2008, the Liberals lost to the Conservatives in Waterloo. By 17 votes. This was primarily due to people feeling "safe" in not voting, or casting protest votes; the Liberals lost *25%* of the total votes cast for them from the previous election. If they had only lost 24%, or any other non-insane number, the Conservatives wouldn't have won. Vote for what you want the government to be.
Reply
#33
(05-24-2018, 12:02 PM)panamaniac Wrote:
(05-24-2018, 11:30 AM)SammyOES Wrote: I think the likely outcome of a minority PC government though will be a PC majority in a year.  Liberals aren't getting elected for at least a couple of years.  There's a lot of people mad at them (many for legitimate reasons).

Well, that would imply that things were not awful under a DoFo minority government, so I could live with that.  What it could do is change the dynamic if things WERE dreadful under a DoFo minority.

Personally, I don't see any satisfactory outcomes, just possibilities that might be less bad than others.   I'm still seriously considering whether to decline my ballot on election day (my riding, Ottawa-Vanier, will go Liberal).

While I can understand the reasons, I will point out, that if the liberals truly are in collapse, there really are no safe seats.
Reply
#34
You have to balance short and long term outcomes though.

In this election I really don't want a Liberal or PC government. And I don't particularly support the NDP. And so... I'd rather use my vote to indicate to the parties that I'm a voter that actually votes that doesn't support their policies. If they change their policies they can attract my vote in the future.

Edit: This applies to the US election as well. While there is tremendous short-term harm (imo) I think there is potential for a lot of long term benefit to the US electorate and the people that were fed up with both candidates and parties. Now, imo, I'm not sure that trade off was worth it in this case and I definitely would have been voting anything-but-Trump.
Reply
#35
I appreciate the intent for a protest vote, but this has knock-on consequences in our first-past-the-post system. A failure to vote for the party that stands against the party you dislike is nearly the same as a vote for the party you dislike.
My Twitter: @KevinLMaps
Reply
#36
Like I said, there are also consequences for just looking at only the immediate results.

Edit: And I think the view of many of us in Ontario is that there are multiple parties we dislike.
Reply
#37
(05-24-2018, 02:24 PM)KevinL Wrote: I appreciate the intent for a protest vote, but this has knock-on consequences in our first-past-the-post system. A failure to vote for the party that stands against the party you dislike is nearly the same as a vote for the party you dislike.

And while they probably should, I rather doubt the major parties really think much about spoiled or declined ballots.
Reply
#38
As someone who works Elections, although spoiled/refused/etc are accounted for, and that information provided to the returning office, you will likely never see those numbers posted on the TV reporting, nor does any party really care.... The candidate with the checkmark beside their name on the TV screen is all anyone cares about.

I can't vote Liberal, and I've always been a Ont PC supporter (Still technically a card carrying member), but I can't in good conscience vote for DoFo.... so I will be supporting NDP, as that is the best chance of ensuring that neither gets in. If I protest vote, I will let the DoFo supporters speak for me.

coke
Reply
#39
Green party votes are reported on TV! Smile

And using the US election as an example, when it gets bad enough parties start to pay attention. But, I understand the point that there can be short term costs.
Reply
#40
(05-24-2018, 12:53 PM)Viewfromthe42 Wrote: Declining ballots is partially how we wound up with Donald Trump and Stephen Harper. Trump had some of the worst turnouts, and didn't boost Republican numbers, just that independents got more votes, and overall voters stayed home.

Closer to that home, in 2008, the Liberals lost to the Conservatives in Waterloo. By 17 votes. This was primarily due to people feeling "safe" in not voting, or casting protest votes; the Liberals lost *25%* of the total votes cast for them from the previous election. If they had only lost 24%, or any other non-insane number, the Conservatives wouldn't have won. Vote for what you want the government to be.

Just to clarify - declining your ballot (i.e. your right to vote) is a formal process that you undertake at the polling station and that results in your ballot being counted (as declined).  It is not the same thing as abstaining or spoiling your ballot, although the impact could arguably be similar in close riding results.  When you decline your ballot, you are indicating that none of the candidates has earned your vote (i.e. you don't believe that any of them deserve to govern).  It would not surprise me if there were as many as 50,000 declined ballots across the Province in this election.
Reply
#41
(05-24-2018, 01:42 PM)danbrotherston Wrote:
(05-24-2018, 12:02 PM)panamaniac Wrote: Well, that would imply that things were not awful under a DoFo minority government, so I could live with that.  What it could do is change the dynamic if things WERE dreadful under a DoFo minority.

Personally, I don't see any satisfactory outcomes, just possibilities that might be less bad than others.   I'm still seriously considering whether to decline my ballot on election day (my riding, Ottawa-Vanier, will go Liberal).

While I can understand the reasons, I will point out, that if the liberals truly are in collapse, there really are no safe seats.

The lowest riding count for the Liberals that I've seen so far is 2, one of which would be Ottawa-Vanier.  If the Liberals fail to win in Ottawa Vanier, I don't think "collapse" would be a strong enough word.
Reply
#42
(05-24-2018, 04:26 PM)Coke6pk Wrote: As someone who works Elections, although spoiled/refused/etc are accounted for, and that information provided to the returning office, you will likely never see those numbers posted on the TV reporting, nor does any party really care.... The candidate with the checkmark beside their name on the TV screen is all anyone cares about.

I can't vote Liberal, and I've always been a Ont PC supporter (Still technically a card carrying member), but I can't in good conscience vote for DoFo.... so I will be supporting NDP, as that is the best chance of ensuring that neither gets in.  If I protest vote, I will let the DoFo supporters speak for me.

coke

It's an interesting point - given the media attention that the matter has received this time, and the fact that the numbers could be considerably higher than the 30,000 ballots declined in the last election, I wonder if we won't see them listed in the final results (although I agree, we likely won't see them on election night) .
Reply
#43
I understand the current desire to change away from the Liberals (how many times will they promise better GO service before we see it -- even the current promise is 2 elections away), but I really don't want Ford to win. The NDP are kind of 'meh' to me, so I think I'd be OK with them winning, but I'll be voting Green.

Pragmatically, I'm hoping that Waterloo sticks with Fife, she seems to be well liked and she isn't Liberal so I'm hoping the protest vote sticks with her instead of going to the PCs.

The thin that scares me is that despite the surge in NDP support, the way votes are concentrated make it likely we'll still get a PC majority... I hope the momentum continues and we get a minority government.

Like other's said, the Green party aligns most with my politics. Also, I like joking that they haven't had a chance to prove themselves corrupt yet  Tongue 

Sure, my one vote may have felt like an impact when Teledgi lost by 17, but it sure didn't matter when he lost by a wider margin in the next election. Plus, with current campaign financing rules the parties get over $2/vote, so it helps them financially -- and I hope that a larger share of the popular vote to the Greens will help their mindshare with the general public. Plus, there seems to be some hope that Mike will win Guelph.

Currently I'm just wondering how many more scandals the PCs have to reveal in order to lose. Did anyone read the Patrick Brown opinion piece in the Toronto Star? Ignoring the initial scandal that brought him down, the other issues involving nominations and memberships are bad enough and then on top of that the way he's handling things make me think he wasn't leadership material -- it's a shame that his downfall led to Ford.
Reply
#44
(05-24-2018, 02:24 PM)KevinL Wrote: I appreciate the intent for a protest vote, but this has knock-on consequences in our first-past-the-post system. A failure to vote for the party that stands against the party you dislike is nearly the same as a vote for the party you dislike.

This is why my personal preference for a balloting method is a slight variation on an instant runoff ranked ballot: I would add the proviso that if nobody gets a majority of ballots cast (after doing the usual re-allocation of votes as low-scoring candidates are knocked out), then the seat remains unfilled. So submitting a blank ballot, or only voting for a small number of candidates who end up getting knocked out of the process, would have a real effect: if enough people did it, none of the candidates would be elected.
Reply
#45
NDP now ahead of the PCs in support level (37.7% to 36.7%) but still 19 seats behind in the seat projections:
https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/onvotes/poll-tracker/
Reply
« Next Oldest | Next Newest »



Forum Jump:


Users browsing this thread: 2 Guest(s)

About Waterloo Region Connected

Launched in August 2014, Waterloo Region Connected is an online community that brings together all the things that make Waterloo Region great. Waterloo Region Connected provides user-driven content fueled by a lively discussion forum covering topics like urban development, transportation projects, heritage issues, businesses and other issues of interest to those in Kitchener, Waterloo, Cambridge and the four Townships - North Dumfries, Wellesley, Wilmot, and Woolwich.

              User Links