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General Politics Discussion
#41
(05-24-2018, 01:42 PM)danbrotherston Wrote:
(05-24-2018, 12:02 PM)panamaniac Wrote: Well, that would imply that things were not awful under a DoFo minority government, so I could live with that.  What it could do is change the dynamic if things WERE dreadful under a DoFo minority.

Personally, I don't see any satisfactory outcomes, just possibilities that might be less bad than others.   I'm still seriously considering whether to decline my ballot on election day (my riding, Ottawa-Vanier, will go Liberal).

While I can understand the reasons, I will point out, that if the liberals truly are in collapse, there really are no safe seats.

The lowest riding count for the Liberals that I've seen so far is 2, one of which would be Ottawa-Vanier.  If the Liberals fail to win in Ottawa Vanier, I don't think "collapse" would be a strong enough word.
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#42
(05-24-2018, 04:26 PM)Coke6pk Wrote: As someone who works Elections, although spoiled/refused/etc are accounted for, and that information provided to the returning office, you will likely never see those numbers posted on the TV reporting, nor does any party really care.... The candidate with the checkmark beside their name on the TV screen is all anyone cares about.

I can't vote Liberal, and I've always been a Ont PC supporter (Still technically a card carrying member), but I can't in good conscience vote for DoFo.... so I will be supporting NDP, as that is the best chance of ensuring that neither gets in.  If I protest vote, I will let the DoFo supporters speak for me.

coke

It's an interesting point - given the media attention that the matter has received this time, and the fact that the numbers could be considerably higher than the 30,000 ballots declined in the last election, I wonder if we won't see them listed in the final results (although I agree, we likely won't see them on election night) .
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#43
I understand the current desire to change away from the Liberals (how many times will they promise better GO service before we see it -- even the current promise is 2 elections away), but I really don't want Ford to win. The NDP are kind of 'meh' to me, so I think I'd be OK with them winning, but I'll be voting Green.

Pragmatically, I'm hoping that Waterloo sticks with Fife, she seems to be well liked and she isn't Liberal so I'm hoping the protest vote sticks with her instead of going to the PCs.

The thin that scares me is that despite the surge in NDP support, the way votes are concentrated make it likely we'll still get a PC majority... I hope the momentum continues and we get a minority government.

Like other's said, the Green party aligns most with my politics. Also, I like joking that they haven't had a chance to prove themselves corrupt yet  Tongue 

Sure, my one vote may have felt like an impact when Teledgi lost by 17, but it sure didn't matter when he lost by a wider margin in the next election. Plus, with current campaign financing rules the parties get over $2/vote, so it helps them financially -- and I hope that a larger share of the popular vote to the Greens will help their mindshare with the general public. Plus, there seems to be some hope that Mike will win Guelph.

Currently I'm just wondering how many more scandals the PCs have to reveal in order to lose. Did anyone read the Patrick Brown opinion piece in the Toronto Star? Ignoring the initial scandal that brought him down, the other issues involving nominations and memberships are bad enough and then on top of that the way he's handling things make me think he wasn't leadership material -- it's a shame that his downfall led to Ford.
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#44
(05-24-2018, 02:24 PM)KevinL Wrote: I appreciate the intent for a protest vote, but this has knock-on consequences in our first-past-the-post system. A failure to vote for the party that stands against the party you dislike is nearly the same as a vote for the party you dislike.

This is why my personal preference for a balloting method is a slight variation on an instant runoff ranked ballot: I would add the proviso that if nobody gets a majority of ballots cast (after doing the usual re-allocation of votes as low-scoring candidates are knocked out), then the seat remains unfilled. So submitting a blank ballot, or only voting for a small number of candidates who end up getting knocked out of the process, would have a real effect: if enough people did it, none of the candidates would be elected.
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#45
NDP now ahead of the PCs in support level (37.7% to 36.7%) but still 19 seats behind in the seat projections:
https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/onvotes/poll-tracker/
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#46
(05-25-2018, 10:31 AM)tomh009 Wrote: NDP now ahead of the PCs in support level (37.7% to 36.7%) but still 19 seats behind in the seat projections:
https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/onvotes/poll-tracker/

Isn't our electoral system grand.
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#47
(05-25-2018, 10:54 AM)danbrotherston Wrote:
(05-25-2018, 10:31 AM)tomh009 Wrote: NDP now ahead of the PCs in support level (37.7% to 36.7%) but still 19 seats behind in the seat projections:
https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/onvotes/poll-tracker/

Isn't our electoral system grand.

Sadly the MMP option was resoundingly trounced in the 2007 referendum. And no one is talking about it now.
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#48
Wow, that new poll is not good for PCs:  47-NDP, 33-PC, 14-LIB

If the anti-PC vote consolidates around the NDP I think the PCs are in deep trouble.  And thats more and more likely the more the narrative becomes the NDP surging and the Liberals dropping.  They needed them both to be viable to split the vote more effectively.

Edit: The PC numbers in the averages are still buoyed a bit by better numbers from a week ago. So there's still room for them to drop. That being said, I don't know how reliable Ontario polling has been historically.
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#49
Generally pretty reliable. But this is just one poll, so it could certainly be an outlier. We'll know more as additional polls are published.
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#50
(05-25-2018, 11:23 AM)tomh009 Wrote:
(05-25-2018, 10:54 AM)danbrotherston Wrote: Isn't our electoral system grand.

Sadly the MMP option was resoundingly trounced in the 2007 referendum. And no one is talking about it now.

We should start by switching to ranked ballots for all elections in which voters choose one or more candidates to hold a position. This is not a change in the overall political system, only in the way the ballots are filled out and counted. As far as I’m concerned, this change should be made everywhere, from MP down to Grade 4 class president and everything in between.

Once that is done, eliminating the vote-splitting problem and the excessive difficulty and risk involved in getting rid of a bad* incumbent, then we can have a discussion of whether some sort of proportional system or other revision is desireable.

* Note: by “bad” I don’t mean “I don’t like them”, I mean “the populace at large doesn’t like them”.
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