(09-17-2021, 02:59 PM)ac3r Wrote: It's definitely going to fail. Whoever it was at Metrolinx, sitting around a board meeting table, that said "yeah, this could be a great success, let's try it out" needs to be fired. Metrolinx is not always bad, but they sure as hell make a lot of questionable decisions.

(09-17-2021, 03:22 PM)taylortbb Wrote:

(09-17-2021, 02:59 PM)ac3r Wrote: It's definitely going to fail. Whoever it was at Metrolinx, sitting around a board meeting table, that said "yeah, this could be a great success, let's try it out" needs to be fired. Metrolinx is not always bad, but they sure as hell make a lot of questionable decisions.

The rationale I can see for this is that it's a precursor to buying the rest of the CN north mainline. The first service to Kitchener was really painfully slow, awkwardly timed, and only 2 trains/day. Current service isn't great, but it's definitely better than it was.

If Metrolinx bought the tracks from Kitchener to London, and brought them up to the standard they're currently doing for Kitchener to Georgetown, it could be a good service. The north mainline isn't any longer, just slower due to poor track quality, but it hits a number of larger population centres the Via service on the south mainline doesn't.

(09-17-2021, 02:27 PM)danbrotherston Wrote: And now we have a schedule.

As I feared, the schedule is no good for KW commuters, and is targeted at Toronto commuters, none of whom will be seduced to leave hours earlier to save all of 12 dollars (fares are 30 dollars, compared with Via's 42).

So yeah, I really struggle to believe that this isn't intended to fail.

(09-17-2021, 04:37 PM)Bytor Wrote: Timing it for the London→Toronto commuters is ridiculous, though. Instead of making it an extension to the 7:32am trip from Kitchener, make it part of the 8:39am and they'd get more riders, I bet.

(09-17-2021, 03:53 PM)danbrotherston Wrote: The the south line hits more population, North line hits Stratford (50k), KW (500k), Guelph (100k), Georgetown (50k), Brampton (600k), but the south line hits Woodstock (50k), Brantford (100k), Oakville (200k), Mississauga (800k), Hamilton (600k), Burlington (200k).

(09-17-2021, 11:00 PM)ac3r Wrote:

(09-17-2021, 03:53 PM)danbrotherston Wrote: The the south line hits more population, North line hits Stratford (50k), KW (500k), Guelph (100k), Georgetown (50k), Brampton (600k), but the south line hits Woodstock (50k), Brantford (100k), Oakville (200k), Mississauga (800k), Hamilton (600k), Burlington (200k).

FWIW, we're not at 500'000 people. The Region of Waterloo officially records our population as 630'000, which is visible on most Welcome To... signs around our periphery. I wouldn't doubt if it's even higher than that now since those were updated in 2019 if I recall.

(09-18-2021, 03:58 PM)tomh009 Wrote: The key question, though, regardless of the population, is where would London residents want to take a train to, and how often? Are there people in London commuting (near/daily) to Hamilton, Burlington or Oakville? Or would Kitchener be a more popular option?

The population figures will not be the whole story, as I don't expect a London-Brampton trip, for example, to attract a lot of pax in spite of Brampton's large population.

I should hope that GO has done their market research to determine where people would want to get to (from London) but I have no actual data.

(09-18-2021, 04:11 PM)danbrotherston Wrote:

(09-18-2021, 03:58 PM)tomh009 Wrote: The key question, though, regardless of the population, is where would London residents want to take a train to, and how often? Are there people in London commuting (near/daily) to Hamilton, Burlington or Oakville? Or would Kitchener be a more popular option?

The population figures will not be the whole story, as I don't expect a London-Brampton trip, for example, to attract a lot of pax in spite of Brampton's large population.

I should hope that GO has done their market research to determine where people would want to get to (from London) but I have no actual data.

I do not get the sense this decision is based in market research.

(09-17-2021, 04:17 PM)Bytor Wrote: Kitchener→Union Station is finally competitive time-wise after the recent minimal upgrade work (1:41 station to station, vs ~1:50 driving), it's just not convenient in terms of scheduling. However, track work can still be done K→U as the best possible time for an all-stops run with Class 3 tracks and 2 minute dwells is ~1:27. Inwards past Mount Pleasant the stations are too close together for trains to go any faster, but Class 5 tracks would shorten up K→MP times and the complete all-stops run would be ~1:16, making it competitive with cars outside of rush hour as well.

A K→U express (skipping everything between Mount Pleasant and Union), at Class 6 speeds would take roughly 59 minutes.

If there's interest, I could produce similar stats for L→K.

(09-19-2021, 09:47 AM)ijmorlan Wrote:

(09-17-2021, 04:17 PM)Bytor Wrote: Kitchener→Union Station is finally competitive time-wise after the recent minimal upgrade work (1:41 station to station, vs ~1:50 driving), it's just not convenient in terms of scheduling. However, track work can still be done K→U as the best possible time for an all-stops run with Class 3 tracks and 2 minute dwells is ~1:27. Inwards past Mount Pleasant the stations are too close together for trains to go any faster, but Class 5 tracks would shorten up K→MP times and the complete all-stops run would be ~1:16, making it competitive with cars outside of rush hour as well.

A K→U express (skipping everything between Mount Pleasant and Union), at Class 6 speeds would take roughly 59 minutes.

If there's interest, I could produce similar stats for L→K.

Thanks for working this out. It’s really amazing how much improvement would be possible with changes that would be much less expensive than building HSR.