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+--- Thread: The COVID-19 pandemic (/showthread.php?tid=1463)
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RE: Covid-19 -- Pandemic - jeffster - 04-03-2020
(04-02-2020, 11:36 PM)jordan2423 Wrote: Ontario will announce full police lockdown tomorrow is what my friend told me. He works in the government.
This is getting serious. Have to wonder what all that means...
RE: Covid-19 -- Pandemic - Rainrider22 - 04-03-2020
I would be very surprised to here that....
RE: Covid-19 -- Pandemic - panamaniac - 04-03-2020
CBC is just reporting now that stricter measures will be required, but is not giving details. Ford's models, however, also reportedly show that the measures implemented by Ontarians so far have prevented hundreds of thousands of infections and saved thousands of lives.
RE: Covid-19 -- Pandemic - tomh009 - 04-03-2020
(04-02-2020, 05:46 PM)plam Wrote:(04-02-2020, 02:12 PM)jamincan Wrote: Any idea why the situation in Quebec seems worse than in Ontario right now? It seems they've taken far more strict measures than Ontario, but that doesn't seem to be reflected in the numbers.
Hard to say, but people are looking at hospitalization numbers as more likely to be accurate. My dad pointed out that Quebec businesses have been closed for 3 weeks now.
Things got out of hand with the large number of people returning from travel just as the virus was starting to spread -- and then Quebec really didn't move quickly enough.
RE: Covid-19 -- Pandemic - bpoland - 04-03-2020
Sounds like a bunch of work still to be done but a widely available drug, Invermectin, may be a possible treatment.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0166354220302011
RE: Covid-19 -- Pandemic - taylortbb - 04-03-2020
(04-03-2020, 12:29 PM)bpoland Wrote: Sounds like a bunch of work still to be done but a widely available drug, Invermectin, may be a possible treatment.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0166354220302011
Unfortunately it's only in vitro. Apparently lots of medications are effective in a petri dish, but throw in the complexities of a human body, and the need for the dose to not be toxic to the human, and 95+% don't work for real. It's certainly still worth investigating further, but it's not a huge breakthrough.
RE: Covid-19 -- Pandemic - panamaniac - 04-03-2020
Even hydrocloroquine, alone or in combination with other existing medications, is at least a couple of months away from being treatment that is proven to be effective, although trials are now underway.
RE: Covid-19 -- Pandemic - tomh009 - 04-03-2020
(04-02-2020, 01:58 PM)tomh009 Wrote: 401 new cases in Ontario today for a 17% increase.
GTAA accounts for 54% of the total cases to date. 320 cases hospitalized to date (not necessarily any more as of today) and 101 have been to ICU.
Quebec reported 907 new cases, almost 20%. Back to the earlier trendline.
2020-03-23 778 (+258%)
2020-03-24 1040 (+34%)
2020-03-25 1339 (+29%)
2020-03-26 1629 (+22%)
2020-03-27 2021 (+24%)
2020-03-28 2498 (+24%)
2020-03-29 2840 (+13%)
2020-03-30 3430 (+17%)
2020-03-31 4162 (+21%)
2020-04-01 4611 (+11%)
2020-04-02 5518 (+20%)
462 new cases in Ontario today for a 16% increase. 66,753 tests done to date, and the testing backlog is now down to 1245.
462 cases hospitalized to date (coincidence?) and 192 have been to ICU. Numbers are much higher than yesterday (which was the first day for this data) so it's possible that yesterday's data was incomplete.
Quebec reported 583 new cases, down to an impressive 8%, at least for one day.
2020-03-23 778 (+258%)
2020-03-24 1040 (+34%)
2020-03-25 1339 (+29%)
2020-03-26 1629 (+22%)
2020-03-27 2021 (+24%)
2020-03-28 2498 (+24%)
2020-03-29 2840 (+13%)
2020-03-30 3430 (+17%)
2020-03-31 4162 (+21%)
2020-04-01 4611 (+11%)
2020-04-02 5518 (+20%)
2020-04-03 6101 (+8%)
RE: Covid-19 -- Pandemic - tomh009 - 04-03-2020
(04-03-2020, 12:41 PM)taylortbb Wrote:(04-03-2020, 12:29 PM)bpoland Wrote: Sounds like a bunch of work still to be done but a widely available drug, Invermectin, may be a possible treatment.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0166354220302011
Unfortunately it's only in vivo. Apparently lots of medications are effective in a petri dish, but throw in the complexities of a human body, and the need for the dose to not be toxic to the human, and 95+% don't work for real. It's certainly still worth investigating further, but it's not a huge breakthrough.
Avigan (favilavir) has also shown promise in trials, and is already approved in some countries as an antiviral flu medication.
But none of these are likely to be available for general use anytime in the next few months. Much work remains -- although we'll probably see progress here well before a vaccine becomes available.
RE: Covid-19 -- Pandemic - ijmorlan - 04-03-2020
(04-03-2020, 12:41 PM)taylortbb Wrote: Unfortunately it's only in vivo.
I think you mean in vitro.
RE: Covid-19 -- Pandemic - panamaniac - 04-03-2020
(04-03-2020, 01:11 PM)Itomh009 Wrote:I wouldn’t read too much into a one day drop. Give it at least three or for days to see if there’s a trend.(04-02-2020, 01:58 PM)tomh009 Wrote: 401 new cases in Ontario today for a 17% increase.
GTAA accounts for 54% of the total cases to date. 320 cases hospitalized to date (not necessarily any more as of today) and 101 have been to ICU.
Quebec reported 907 new cases, almost 20%. Back to the earlier trendline.
2020-03-23 778 (+258%)
2020-03-24 1040 (+34%)
2020-03-25 1339 (+29%)
2020-03-26 1629 (+22%)
2020-03-27 2021 (+24%)
2020-03-28 2498 (+24%)
2020-03-29 2840 (+13%)
2020-03-30 3430 (+17%)
2020-03-31 4162 (+21%)
2020-04-01 4611 (+11%)
2020-04-02 5518 (+20%)
462 new cases in Ontario today for a 16% increase. 66,753 tests done to date, and the testing backlog is now down to 1245.
462 cases hospitalized to date (coincidence?) and 192 have been to ICU. Numbers are much higher than yesterday (which was the first day for this data) so it's possible that yesterday's data was incomplete.
Quebec reported 583 new cases, down to an impressive 8%, at least for one day.
2020-03-23 778 (+258%)
2020-03-24 1040 (+34%)
2020-03-25 1339 (+29%)
2020-03-26 1629 (+22%)
2020-03-27 2021 (+24%)
2020-03-28 2498 (+24%)
2020-03-29 2840 (+13%)
2020-03-30 3430 (+17%)
2020-03-31 4162 (+21%)
2020-04-01 4611 (+11%)
2020-04-02 5518 (+20%)
2020-04-03 6101 (+8%)
RE: Covid-19 -- Pandemic - tomh009 - 04-03-2020
(04-03-2020, 01:36 PM)panamaniac Wrote:(04-03-2020, 01:11 PM)tomh009 Wrote: Quebec reported 583 new cases, down to an impressive 8%, at least for one day.I wouldn’t read too much into a one day drop. Give it at least three or for days to see if there’s a trend.
2020-03-23 778 (+258%)
2020-03-24 1040 (+34%)
2020-03-25 1339 (+29%)
2020-03-26 1629 (+22%)
2020-03-27 2021 (+24%)
2020-03-28 2498 (+24%)
2020-03-29 2840 (+13%)
2020-03-30 3430 (+17%)
2020-03-31 4162 (+21%)
2020-04-01 4611 (+11%)
2020-04-02 5518 (+20%)
2020-04-03 6101 (+8%)
Absolutely agree. That's why I'm posting the time series.
RE: Covid-19 -- Pandemic - jgsz - 04-03-2020
“Officials say province could be dealing with the effects of COVID-19 for up to 18 months to 2 years” — CBC
2 years!? Sorry but I’m not ready for that. It will be brutal and the economy will be devastated.
RE: Covid-19 -- Pandemic - danbrotherston - 04-03-2020
(04-03-2020, 03:44 PM)jgsz Wrote: “Officials say province could be dealing with the effects of COVID-19 for up to 18 months to 2 years” — CBC
2 years!? Sorry but I’m not ready for that. It will be brutal and the economy will be devastated.
Best get ready. We all know this is a possibility.
That being said, I think it is quite unlikely, this ends the moment we have a widespread vaccine, of which there are several in trials right now, if one of them is successful 12-18 months is a conservative timeline.
RE: Covid-19 -- Pandemic - panamaniac - 04-03-2020
I'm assuming they mean a two year recovery period and not a two year shutdown. Governments will be under huge pressure to begin restarting the economy in about two to three months time, or as soon as there is some level of assurance that health care will not collapse, whichever comes sooner. I could see senior citizens remaining in self-isolation until the fall, or longer, if the virus persists through the summer. What happens next "season" is anybody's guess at this point.
Edit: I see that they meant up to two years with covid-19 in circulation. One hopes not, but it was already known that that was a possibllity.