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+--- Thread: The COVID-19 pandemic (/showthread.php?tid=1463)
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RE: Covid-19 -- Pandemic - tomh009 - 04-12-2020
401 new cases in Ontario today for a 6% increase -- the same number as 10 days earlier when the infection was still ramping up. 263 recovered and 21 dead for a net addition of 117 active cases.
103,165 people tested to date, 6844 more than yesterday -- the highest testing number to date. In spite of this, the number of new cases was lower than yesterday. Am looking forward to the coming week's reports as the testing ramps up.
738 cases currently hospitalized (+47) and 261 in the ICU (+4). Infections now reported at 86 long-term care homes (+7).
Quebec added 554 cases today, about 5% again. 126,771 tests done to date (3400 for the past day). 824 currently hospitalized (+46) and 217 in ICU (+6).
March
2020-03-23 778 (+258%) 2020-03-24 1040 (+34%) 2020-03-25 1339 (+29%) 2020-03-26 1629 (+22%) 2020-03-27 2021 (+24%)
2020-03-28 2498 (+24%) 2020-03-29 2840 (+13%) 2020-03-30 3430 (+21%) 2020-03-31 4162 (+21%)
April
2020-04-01 4611 (+11%) 2020-04-02 5518 (+20%) 2020-04-03 6101 (+8%) 2020-04-04 6997 (+15%) 2020-04-05 7944 (+14%)
2020-04-06 8580 (+8%) 2020-04-07 9340 (+9%) 2020-04-08 10031 (+7%) 2020-04-09 10912 (+9%) 2020-04-10 11677 (+7%)
2020-04-11 12292 (+5%) 2020-04-12 12846 (+5%)
RE: Covid-19 -- Pandemic - tomh009 - 04-12-2020
10 days of data after the government's April 1 ICU forecast, and tentatively it looks like the social distancing and staying at home is working, as the ICU caseload is pretty stable and well below the "best-case" projections. (My apologies for the approximate placing of the "actual" markers.)
RE: Covid-19 -- Pandemic - jamincan - 04-12-2020
I wonder how much impact the shutdown has had on non-covid-19 cases. Fewer people driving means fewer car accidents, for example. My sister is an emergency room nurse in Orillia, and the other night she said they only had two visits, basically an unprecedentedly low number. Based on funding, it would be similar in size to Cambridge Memorial, as a point of comparison.
RE: Covid-19 -- Pandemic - panamaniac - 04-12-2020
(04-12-2020, 01:07 PM)jamincan Wrote: I wonder how much impact the shutdown has had on non-covid-19 cases. Fewer people driving means fewer car accidents, for example. My sister is an emergency room nurse in Orillia, and the other night she said they only had two visits, basically an unprecedentedly low number. Based on funding, it would be similar in size to Cambridge Memorial, as a point of comparison.
Fewer traffic and industrial accidents, fewer cases of the flu, and, I suspect, fewer incidents of violent crime. Although I know there is concern about an increase in domestic violence, I don't know that we are in fact seeing it.
Bonus - I suspect that there are also far fewer unnecessary visits to emergency departments, due to fear of covid-19. The other side of that is that people who in fact do need to go to emerg may be more reluctant.
RE: Covid-19 -- Pandemic - tomh009 - 04-12-2020
Listening to the "doctor channel" on satellite radio (which is now effectively dedicated to COVID-19), they were saying that there is a huge drop in ER cases (in the US), and they expect that the drop in activity, whether resulting in fewer falls or car accidents or cardiac issues, is a big factor, as people stay at home.
And possibly for the same reasons, the ICUs have fewer non-COVID-19 cases than usual as well.
RE: Covid-19 -- Pandemic - jamincan - 04-12-2020
Which I guess is kind of the whole point of this exercise.
RE: Covid-19 -- Pandemic - plam - 04-12-2020
(04-12-2020, 01:14 PM)panamaniac Wrote: Bonus - I suspect that there are also far fewer unnecessary visits to emergency departments, due to fear of covid-19. The other side of that is that people who in fact do need to go to emerg may be more reluctant.
They've been talking about that here in NZ and the District Health Boards are saying "hey look if you actually have a health issue please come to the ER sooner rather than when it's too late, we have capacity!"
RE: Covid-19 -- Pandemic - jeffster - 04-13-2020
(04-12-2020, 01:07 PM)jamincan Wrote: I wonder how much impact the shutdown has had on non-covid-19 cases. Fewer people driving means fewer car accidents, for example. My sister is an emergency room nurse in Orillia, and the other night she said they only had two visits, basically an unprecedentedly low number. Based on funding, it would be similar in size to Cambridge Memorial, as a point of comparison.
I heard that emergency room visits have dropped 75%.
I am sure you sister could verify that. And also she could verify that the majority visits to ER are not "if we had any common sense" emergencies. I say that because people MIGHT go for bad chest pains (heart attack) and bad cramps (appendix), but it turned out OK but should be classified as an emergency even if in the end it wasn't.
RE: Covid-19 -- Pandemic - jgsz - 04-13-2020
A huge jump from yesterday. There were 53 new cases for a total of 327.
RE: Covid-19 -- Pandemic - tomh009 - 04-13-2020
(deleted)
RE: Covid-19 -- Pandemic - tomh009 - 04-13-2020
(04-13-2020, 10:52 AM)jgsz Wrote: A huge jump from yesterday. There were 53 new cases for a total of 327.
This is Waterloo Region data, I presume?
Their dashboard shows 15 new cases on Friday, 32 on Saturday and 12 yesterday.
https://www.regionofwaterloo.ca/en/health-and-wellness/positive-cases-in-waterloo-region.aspx
Are you looking somewhere else?
(Forest Heights Revera alone accounts for 50 of the 327 cases, the other long-term care homes add another 23.)
RE: Covid-19 -- Pandemic - jgsz - 04-13-2020
Yes, the numbers are for the Region of Waterloo. As for sources, I use the Region’s health department, the Record and the local CBC.
RE: Covid-19 -- Pandemic - tomh009 - 04-13-2020
(04-13-2020, 12:17 PM)jgsz Wrote: Yes, the numbers are for the Region of Waterloo. As for sources, I use the Region’s health department, the Record and the local CBC.
OK, I see the "53" in Record's story. But it doesn't match the region's dashboards in the same story. I do think it's mistake.
RE: Covid-19 -- Pandemic - panamaniac - 04-13-2020
But 53 or 57 over the three days?
RE: Covid-19 -- Pandemic - MidTowner - 04-13-2020
(04-11-2020, 03:22 PM)danbrotherston Wrote:(04-11-2020, 02:09 PM)MidTowner Wrote: Our population is three-and-a-half times that of Alberta, but we're not even completing double the tests. 70,000 tested there, compared with less than 100,000 in Ontario. Not too impressive.
This doesn't matter when looking at trends, as long as the testing methodology remains constant, we can still see whether cases are going up, down, or flat.
You're right about this: we can see that the rate of growth is slowing, at least. And the hospitalization and death numbers don't lie, anyway.
But if we can't conduct more than a few thousand tests a day, I don't understand how we can ever hope to reopen society. My understanding from everything I read is that, once things are reopened (and they have to be), only aggressive contact tracing gives us a hope of managing the resulting surge in infections. We can't even test to find out who is infected, forget about tracing the contacts of those who are.