(05-11-2020, 07:38 PM)tomh009 Wrote:

(05-11-2020, 06:38 PM)plam Wrote: Thinking again about Quebec's test positivity rate, if it is the same proportion as the previous numbers I would think that the new cases are 12% of the number of tests but 30% of those cases might be by epidemiological link (household contacts + symptoms), so 9%. Still higher than it should be.

I also wonder about % of active cases and whether it's useful to look at particular regions and their rates.

The difference in the number of positive tests as compared to Ontario really is huge. There were three days in early April, a few weeks after Ontario started detailed reporting, when there were over 12% positives. Even in the first two weeks from when Ontario started reporting the number of daily tests, the positives averaged only 10.2%. And to me that means that today there is still significantly more COVID-19 in the wild in La Belle Provence.

I would really like to know the number of active cases for Quebec but I have not seen that published anywhere. Please let us know if you see that somewhere!

(05-11-2020, 08:11 PM)plam Wrote:

(05-11-2020, 07:38 PM)tomh009 Wrote: The difference in the number of positive tests as compared to Ontario really is huge. There were three days in early April, a few weeks after Ontario started detailed reporting, when there were over 12% positives. Even in the first two weeks from when Ontario started reporting the number of daily tests, the positives averaged only 10.2%. And to me that means that today there is still significantly more COVID-19 in the wild in La Belle Provence.

I would really like to know the number of active cases for Quebec but I have not seen that published anywhere. Please let us know if you see that somewhere!

It's odd, because I would have thought that Ontario was under-testing (and maybe it is), but Quebec is testing more and finding more positive cases as a percentage. I think it is plausible to say that the cases are in Greater Montreal though.

This seems to have all the stats. Cases by report date. May 10, 38469 cases total, 25753 active.

https://www.inspq.qc.ca/covid-19/donnees

Quebec hospital usage looks quite flat, but I've also heard that staffing is an issue even at the current levels.

• Positive tests, last 10 days: ON 2.6%, QC 18.7%
  A huge, huge difference as discussed
  
  
• % of total cases recovered: ON 74%, QC 25%
  How can this be? Is QC not tracking (or retesting) recovered patients?
  
  
• % of total cases deceased: ON 8.1%, QC 7.8%
  This makes sense, both have suffered from LTC outbreaks
  
  
• % of hospitalized cases in ICU: ON 19%, QC 10%
  Is QC ICU maxed out? Or why are there so many fewer ICU cases?
  

(05-11-2020, 08:34 PM)tomh009 Wrote: Thanks! I had looked at that page before but I had looked for some numbers and had not noticed that they are available by hovering over the chart. Discoverable, not so much.

(05-11-2020, 09:03 PM)tomh009 Wrote: Having now extracted a bunch of data from the QC web site (should have practised my French more!) there are significant differences in the data:

• Positive tests, last 10 days: ON 2.6%, QC 18.7%
  A huge, huge difference as discussed
  
  
• % of total cases recovered: ON 74%, QC 25%
  How can this be? Is QC not tracking (or retesting) recovered patients?
  
  
• % of total cases deceased: ON 8.1%, QC 7.8%
  This makes sense, both have suffered from LTC outbreaks
  
  
• % of hospitalized cases in ICU: ON 19%, QC 10%
  Is QC ICU maxed out? Or why are there so many fewer ICU cases?
  

(05-11-2020, 09:03 PM)tomh009 Wrote: Having now extracted a bunch of data from the QC web site (should have practised my French more!) there are significant differences in the data:

• Positive tests, last 10 days: ON 2.6%, QC 18.7%
  A huge, huge difference as discussed

(05-11-2020, 09:03 PM)tomh009 Wrote:

% of total cases recovered: ON 74%, QC 25%
How can this be? Is QC not tracking (or retesting) recovered patients?

(05-11-2020, 09:03 PM)tomh009 Wrote:

% of hospitalized cases in ICU: ON 19%, QC 10%
Is QC ICU maxed out? Or why are there so many fewer ICU cases?

(05-11-2020, 10:11 PM)taylortbb Wrote:

(05-11-2020, 09:03 PM)tomh009 Wrote: Having now extracted a bunch of data from the QC web site (should have practised my French more!) there are significant differences in the data:

• Positive tests, last 10 days: ON 2.6%, QC 18.7%
  A huge, huge difference as discussed
  

Might be a product of different criteria. In Ontario it's very difficult to get tested as a member of the general public, you have to be in a LTC facility, hospitalized, or a healthcare worker. Anyone else is just told to isolate and self monitor. If Quebec is testing the general public, or generally targeting their testing more towards groups likely to be positive, that could explain the difference.

Ontario, for example, I believe tested everyone in a LTC facility over the past week. Regardless of being symptomatic or there being an outbreak there. That's naturally going to result in a lot of negatives, and a much lower percentage positive, unless Quebec did a similar mass testing project.

I don't know what Quebec's criteria for testing are, but unless they're the same it's not a comparable number.

(05-11-2020, 09:03 PM)tomh009 Wrote: Having now extracted a bunch of data from the QC web site (should have practised my French more!) there are significant differences in the data:

• Positive tests, last 10 days: ON 2.6%, QC 18.7%
  A huge, huge difference as discussed
  
  
• % of total cases recovered: ON 74%, QC 25%
  How can this be? Is QC not tracking (or retesting) recovered patients?
  
  
• % of total cases deceased: ON 8.1%, QC 7.8%
  This makes sense, both have suffered from LTC outbreaks
  
  
• % of hospitalized cases in ICU: ON 19%, QC 10%
  Is QC ICU maxed out? Or why are there so many fewer ICU cases?
  

(05-12-2020, 10:51 AM)tomh009 Wrote:

(05-11-2020, 10:11 PM)taylortbb Wrote: Might be a product of different criteria. In Ontario it's very difficult to get tested as a member of the general public, you have to be in a LTC facility, hospitalized, or a healthcare worker. Anyone else is just told to isolate and self monitor. If Quebec is testing the general public, or generally targeting their testing more towards groups likely to be positive, that could explain the difference.

Ontario, for example, I believe tested everyone in a LTC facility over the past week. Regardless of being symptomatic or there being an outbreak there. That's naturally going to result in a lot of negatives, and a much lower percentage positive, unless Quebec did a similar mass testing project.

I don't know what Quebec's criteria for testing are, but unless they're the same it's not a comparable number.

Everybody's testing criteria (provinces, countries etc) are different but everyone is basically trying to test the highest-risk groups first, so to some extent they are somewhat comparable. The more you test (per capita) the lower your positive rate should go as you will be testing more of the low-risk groups. So, if you are testing more per capita (ie more low-risk groups in the mix) your rate should not be 8x that of the province that is testing less.

(05-13-2020, 10:17 PM)KevinL Wrote: Very interesting flight path! Obviously they made big loops over GRH and St. Mary's, but they did one over Stanley Park too?