+- Waterloo Region Connected (https://www.waterlooregionconnected.com)
+-- Forum: Connected Café (https://www.waterlooregionconnected.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=15)
+--- Forum: General and Off-Topic Discussion (https://www.waterlooregionconnected.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=19)
+--- Thread: The COVID-19 pandemic (/showthread.php?tid=1463)
Pages:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150
151
152
153
154
155
156
157
158
159
160
161
162
163
164
165
166
167
168
169
170
171
172
173
174
175
176
177
178
179
180
181
182
183
184
185
186
187
188
189
190
191
192
193
194
195
196
197
198
199
200
201
202
203
204
205
206
207
208
209
210
211
212
213
214
215
216
217
218
219
220
221
222
223
224
225
226
227
228
229
230
231
232
233
234
235
236
237
238
239
240
241
242
243
244
245
246
247
248
249
250
251
252
253
254
255
256
257
258
259
260
261
262
263
264
265
266
267
268
269
270
271
272
273
274
275
276
277
278
279
280
281
282
283
284
285
286
287
288
289
290
291
292
RE: Covid-19 -- Pandemic - danbrotherston - 03-20-2020
This is a rather interesting article about the progress of the disease and what we can do about it:
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56
RE: Covid-19 -- Pandemic - rickhd - 03-20-2020
(03-20-2020, 05:48 PM)danbrotherston Wrote: This is a rather interesting article about the progress of the disease and what we can do about it:Excellent article.
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56
RE: Covid-19 -- Pandemic - MidTowner - 03-20-2020
(03-20-2020, 05:48 PM)danbrotherston Wrote: This is a rather interesting article about the progress of the disease and what we can do about it:
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56
Well, that's encouraging that the author posits that what he calls "the hammer" (our current social distancing and isolation) is needed for a matter of weeks, not months.
It's a good point too that, even if the most ambitious estimates put a vaccine at a year or more away, one or more effective treatments could be identified any day now.
RE: Covid-19 -- Pandemic - jeffster - 03-20-2020
(03-20-2020, 05:48 PM)danbrotherston Wrote: This is a rather interesting article about the progress of the disease and what we can do about it:
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56
Good article:
Key point:
Quote:China’s measures were stronger. For example, people were limited to one person per household allowed to leave home every three days to buy food. Also, their enforcement was severe. It is likely that this severity stopped the epidemic faster.
Could that work here? It could, but we need to get it started and do it now. We'll be in the clear within 6 or 7 weeks, before the May 24 weekend.
RE: Covid-19 -- Pandemic - jordan2423 - 03-20-2020
(03-19-2020, 06:39 PM)Rainrider22 Wrote: Your not going to die from this......
Armchair doctor ^ ?
RE: Covid-19 -- Pandemic - MidTowner - 03-20-2020
(03-20-2020, 08:04 PM)jeffster Wrote: China’s measures were stronger. For example, people were limited to one person per household allowed to leave home every three days to buy food. Also, their enforcement was severe. It is likely that this severity stopped the epidemic faster.
Could that work here? It could, but we need to get it started and do it now. We'll be in the clear within 6 or 7 weeks, before the May 24 weekend.
No, that could not work here. It is not possible to restrict people to our homes.
He does go on to say:
Quote:South Korea had at some point the worst epidemic outside of China. Now, it’s largely under control. And they did it without asking people to stay home. They achieved it mostly with very aggressive testing, contact tracing, quarantines and isolations.
Even that would be tricky. From what I've read, much of what South Korea and Singapore are doing would rightly offend most Canadians' sensibilities when it comes to privacy, for instance. But it at least seems possible here, unlike what the Communist Party of China did to millions of its subjects, which is simply not.
RE: Covid-19 -- Pandemic - ijmorlan - 03-20-2020
(03-20-2020, 08:22 PM)jordan2423 Wrote:(03-19-2020, 06:39 PM)Rainrider22 Wrote: Your not going to die from this......
Armchair doctor ^ ?
Worse. I consider that on a level with encouraging sedition or inciting criminal activity. Nobody has any business contradicting the medical authorities under these circumstances without providing detailed reasoning, evidence, and citations in the same message as their contradiction.
Generally speaking, if I were running a message board, I would want to mostly let people say what they want to say and keep the banhammer stored safely in a closet, but this is the sort of case where if it were me I might bring it out.
On the other hand, I note there have already been several messages pointing out the insanity of the statement, so maybe this is a case of “more speech is better speech”.
RE: Covid-19 -- Pandemic - ijmorlan - 03-20-2020
(03-20-2020, 08:26 PM)MidTowner Wrote:(03-20-2020, 08:04 PM)jeffster Wrote: China’s measures were stronger. For example, people were limited to one person per household allowed to leave home every three days to buy food. Also, their enforcement was severe. It is likely that this severity stopped the epidemic faster.
Could that work here? It could, but we need to get it started and do it now. We'll be in the clear within 6 or 7 weeks, before the May 24 weekend.
No, that could not work here. It is not possible to restrict people to our homes.
If it becomes necessary, it will probably be possible.
Note that the Ezra Ave. party wasn’t just small this year — as far as I can tell from reports, it didn’t happen. My impression is the police didn’t even turn away that many people. Why? Because enough people got a clue to make a difference. Similarly, if we really got to the point where the only safe option would be for everybody to stay home unless they are specifically authorized, it would be because people were dying from the disease and almost everybody would understand that it was necessary and would trust the recommendation from the medical officer.
I don’t know what is going to happen, but if it turns out that the current state will continue for many months then I would prefer to have a short period of time during which we would ensure that everybody is stocked up, then a 3-4 week period of time during which literally nobody leaves the house except as specifically authorized by the emergency authorities (so roughly speaking emergency services, utilities, and patients going to the hospital). Theoretically, this should be a foolproof method of stopping the disease: current cases would go through whatever is going to happen, and there would be essentially no new cases. After 3-4 weeks anybody who was infected would be over it, one way or the other.
RE: Covid-19 -- Pandemic - tomh009 - 03-20-2020
(03-20-2020, 05:48 PM)danbrotherston Wrote: This is a rather interesting article about the progress of the disease and what we can do about it:
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56
It's quite good indeed. Some of the charts have made-up data and he has a lot of assumptions in order to get to things like the seven weeks to get to the easing of restrictions. But he does admit that he made those up, because the data doesn't exist -- or if it does exist, it's not accessible to the public.
I'll buy into his general concept. His numbers might be off by a factor of two, but even so, 14 weeks of clampdown would be something I could live with. And then the question is what the "new normal" will look like.
But, but, but. If we have uncontrolled, rampant spread of the virus in other countries (cough, cough, south of the border, cough) are we going to need to more or less eliminate travel as part of the "dance"?
RE: Covid-19 -- Pandemic - jeffster - 03-20-2020
(03-20-2020, 08:26 PM)MidTowner Wrote:(03-20-2020, 08:04 PM)jeffster Wrote: China’s measures were stronger. For example, people were limited to one person per household allowed to leave home every three days to buy food. Also, their enforcement was severe. It is likely that this severity stopped the epidemic faster.
Could that work here? It could, but we need to get it started and do it now. We'll be in the clear within 6 or 7 weeks, before the May 24 weekend.
No, that could not work here. It is not possible to restrict people to our homes.
He does go on to say:
Quote:South Korea had at some point the worst epidemic outside of China. Now, it’s largely under control. And they did it without asking people to stay home. They achieved it mostly with very aggressive testing, contact tracing, quarantines and isolations.
Even that would be tricky. From what I've read, much of what South Korea and Singapore are doing would rightly offend most Canadians' sensibilities when it comes to privacy, for instance. But it at least seems possible here, unlike what the Communist Party of China did to millions of its subjects, which is simply not.
Looks like Saskatchewan is taking steps to ensure isolation:
https://globalnews.ca/news/6710474/saskatchewan-order-enforcing-measures-protecting-against-covid-19/
Granted, this is only for those that have to self-isolate for 14 days, but it could be extended for sure.
RE: Covid-19 -- Pandemic - tomh009 - 03-20-2020
(03-19-2020, 11:31 AM)tomh009 Wrote: Average case growth from yesterday, over the past seven days:But US, Canada and Portugal are already up around 80% from yesterday ... and Australia is more than double yesterday.
- Brazil: 372 cases 39% average/day
- Poland: 251 cases 35% average/day
- Portugal: 448 cases 34% average/day
Today's data snip, five-day average increase:
- Ecuador: 367 cases, 67%
- Pakistan: 501 cases, 57%
- Luxembourg: 484 cases, 52%
- Chile 434: cases, 42%
- USA: 19101 cases, 40%
- Peru: 234 cases, 40%
- Ireland: 683 cases, 40%
- Armenia: 136 cases, 39%
- Brazil: 793 cases, 37%
- Portugal: 1020 cases, 33%
- ...
- Canada: 943: 30%
On the other hand, NY was at 55% today (8310 cases!), MI was 65% (552) and TX at 52% (394). They are cracking down now but it will take quite some time before that will be reflected in the caseload.
RE: Covid-19 -- Pandemic - jeffster - 03-20-2020
(03-20-2020, 09:19 PM)tomh009 Wrote:(03-20-2020, 05:48 PM)danbrotherston Wrote: This is a rather interesting article about the progress of the disease and what we can do about it:
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56
It's quite good indeed. Some of the charts have made-up data and he has a lot of assumptions in order to get to things like the seven weeks to get to the easing of restrictions. But he does admit that he made those up, because the data doesn't exist -- or if it does exist, it's not accessible to the public.
I'll buy into his general concept. His numbers might be off by a factor of two, but even so, 14 weeks of clampdown would be something I could live with. And then the question is what the "new normal" will look like.
But, but, but. If we have uncontrolled, rampant spread of the virus in other countries (cough, cough, south of the border, cough) are we going to need to more or less eliminate travel as part of the "dance"?
I think travel restrictions would exist for a long time. And the governments would need to enforce richlings from using their private jets to go elsewhere without permission, because people with a lot of money generally don't give a f***. That could mean an escort to the nearest airport by the RCAF and if warranted, shot 'em down.
However, restrictions could end abruptly when a successful (or successful enough) vaccine is created - so we could be talking 4 months at the very least or 18 months at the most probably.
RE: Covid-19 -- Pandemic - tomh009 - 03-21-2020
(03-20-2020, 10:28 PM)jeffster Wrote: However, restrictions could end abruptly when a successful (or successful enough) vaccine is created - so we could be talking 4 months at the very least or 18 months at the most probably.
No way to get a vaccine in four months. If they get lucky and super-accelerate the approval process, maybe the end of the year at best, more likely next year.
What could be possible is that an existing medicine (hydroxychloroquine, for example) is confirmed as effective (and side effects as acceptable) in the near term, maybe 3-6 months. This could help the treatments and reduce the healthcare system overload. But this, too, is still uncertain.
RE: Covid-19 -- Pandemic - tomh009 - 03-21-2020
(03-20-2020, 11:17 AM)tomh009 Wrote:(03-19-2020, 01:14 PM)tomh009 Wrote: Locally we are now up to 12 confirmed cases, including the first two community transmissions (two females in their 20s).
https://www.regionofwaterloo.ca/en/health-and-wellness/confirmed-positive-cases-in-waterloo-region.aspx
Two more local cases today, for a total of 14. One of the two is a community transmission, and is the first hospitalized case in the region (a male in his 70s); the other patient caught the virus on a cruise.
One more today, a total of 15 now. The new case (male, 20s) was from close contact with a previously-infected person. Still only one person hospitalized.
RE: Covid-19 -- Pandemic - panamaniac - 03-21-2020
(03-21-2020, 11:46 AM)tomh009 Wrote:(03-20-2020, 10:28 PM)jeffster Wrote: However, restrictions could end abruptly when a successful (or successful enough) vaccine is created - so we could be talking 4 months at the very least or 18 months at the most probably.
No way to get a vaccine in four months. If they get lucky and super-accelerate the approval process, maybe the end of the year at best, more likely next year.
What could be possible is that an existing medicine (hydroxychloroquine, for example) is confirmed as effective (and side effects as acceptable) in the near term, maybe 3-6 months. This could help the treatments and reduce the healthcare system overload. But this, too, is still uncertain.
The talk of chloroquine has me remembering the time, almost 40 years ago now, when I was living abroad and required to take it for malaria prevention. I managed to stay on it for a number of months, but the side effects were bad enough that I eventually stopped taking it an just took my chances. I gather that the possible use against covid-19, if there turns out to be any validity to it, would be for much shorter periods so maybe not an issue.