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The COVID-19 pandemic
(05-25-2020, 11:39 AM)kps Wrote:
(05-25-2020, 09:17 AM)ijmorlan Wrote: Everybody knows you can’t get it from your friends!  Tongue

Obligatory Lehrer

It’s New Math!
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Waterloo Region reported four new cases today, 0.4% of the total cases to date and 1.9% of the current active caseload. 206 cases now active in the region, down 21, and down 90 in the past seven days. New cases averaging 2.6% of actives over the past seven days.

Ontario reported 287 new cases. 260 recoveries and 21 deaths means an increase of six active cases for the day and 543 more for the week. 9,875 tests on the tail end of the weekend for a 2.9% positivity rate. The new cases are 1.1% of the total but 7.0% of the number of active cases. New cases averaging 10.4% of actives over the past seven days.

The hospital population (848, -11) and the ICU population (143, -5) is still a bright spot.

Toronto reported 75 new cases, down from 140 yesterday, 3.8% of the active caseload.
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Waterloo Region reported six new cases today, 0.6% of the total cases to date and 2.9% of the current active caseload. 207 cases now active in the region, down two (yesterday's numbers were revised up by three cases), and down 85 in the past seven days. New cases averaging 2.6% of actives over the past seven days.

Ontario reported 292 new cases. 414 recoveries and 32 deaths means an decrease of 154 active cases for the day -- the first drop in 10 days -- and 334 more for the week. 15,133 tests on the tail end of the weekend for a 1.9% positivity rate. The new cases are 1.1% of the total but 7.4% of the number of active cases. New cases averaging 9.9% of actives over the past seven days.

The hospital population (847, -1) and the ICU population (150, +7) remain quite low.
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Two consecutive days under 300 new cases renews my hope. Even expecting "ups and downs", the upward trend last week was very disturbing.
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(05-27-2020, 11:22 AM)panamaniac Wrote: Two consecutive days under 300 new cases renews my hope.  Even expecting "ups and downs", the upward trend last week was very disturbing.

Only two so far!

Could it be that the increased cases (an average of 421/day from May 18 to 24) was driven by Mothers' Day visits? Is that the real answer? Do we have tracking data to back that up? And will we see another surge shortly due to Victoria Day?

Enquiring minds really do want to know ...
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(05-27-2020, 11:54 AM)tomh009 Wrote:
(05-27-2020, 11:22 AM)panamaniac Wrote: Two consecutive days under 300 new cases renews my hope.  Even expecting "ups and downs", the upward trend last week was very disturbing.

Only two so far!

Could it be that the increased cases (an average of 421/day from May 18 to 24) was driven by Mothers' Day visits? Is that the real answer? Do we have tracking data to back that up? And will we see another surge shortly due to Victoria Day?

Enquiring minds really do want to know ...

They do indeed.  Unfortunately, a combination of inadequate tracking plus (I suspect) privacy concerns relegates things to the realm of educated guesses.  That said, there were undoubtedly many questionable family get together for Mother’s Day, so it seems as good an explanation as any.
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(05-27-2020, 02:16 PM)panamaniac Wrote: They do indeed.  Unfortunately, a combination of inadequate tracking plus (I suspect) privacy concerns relegates things to the realm of educated guesses.  That said, there were undoubtedly many questionable family get together for Mother’s Day, so it seems as good an explanation as any.

Like the Premier's?
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(05-28-2020, 02:55 AM)plam Wrote:
(05-27-2020, 02:16 PM)panamaniac Wrote: They do indeed.  Unfortunately, a combination of inadequate tracking plus (I suspect) privacy concerns relegates things to the realm of educated guesses.  That said, there were undoubtedly many questionable family get together for Mother’s Day, so it seems as good an explanation as any.

Like the Premier's?

Among many others, yup!
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Waterloo Region reported three new cases today, 0.3% of the total cases to date and 1.5% of the current active caseload. 203 cases now active in the region, down four, and down 82 in the past seven days. New cases averaging 2.4% of actives over the past seven days.

Ontario reported 383 new cases, back up to nearly 400. 301 recoveries and 34 deaths means an increase of 48 active cases for the day, and 319 more for the week. 17,615 tests for a 2.2% positivity rate. The new cases are 1.4% of the total but 9.6% of the number of active cases. New cases averaging 9.7% of actives over the past seven days.

The hospital population (833, -14) and the ICU population (137, -13) are back down again. The ICU count is down 48% from the peak.

Still, the chart does not give me high confidence that Ontario has a good handle on this pandemic.

   
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Waterloo Region reported only one new case today, 0.1% of the total cases to date and 0.5% of the current active caseload. 189 cases now active in the region, down fourteen, and down 91 in the past seven days. New cases averaging 2.0% of actives over the past seven days. Nice work, Waterloo Region!

Ontario reported 344 new cases. 310 recoveries and 41 deaths means a drop of seven active cases for the day, but 157 more for the week. 18,525 tests (a new high) for a 1.9% positivity rate. The new cases are 1.3% of the total but 8.6% of the number of active cases. New cases averaging 9.2% of actives over the past seven days.

The hospital population (826, -7) and the ICU population (129, -8) are back down again. The ICU count is now less than half of the April 12th peak of 263 cases.
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Ford says he is considering regional reopening of Ontario as new testing strategy rolled out

This is a change from what Premier Ford was saying a week ago, saying that the entire province has to reopen together. It's a no-brainer, though, that in a province this size we would have different strategies in different areas. Sudbury has had no new cases for almost two weeks, and no active cases, so why is the list of businesses closed the same as in Toronto? Waterloo Region has a per capita case load less than a quarter of Peel's, so why are playgrounds here still closed, why are fines being issued for private gatherings larger than five?

As for the arguments against, the ones brought up by Ford and Williams are, respectively, that someone would drive from Toronto to Kingston for dinner, or to another jurisdiction for a haircut. But there might not be many regions ready for barber shops to open anyway- what about things like child care and some additional workplaces, that people are unlikely to seek out in different regions?
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(05-29-2020, 02:42 PM)MidTowner Wrote: Ford says he is considering regional reopening of Ontario as new testing strategy rolled out

This is a change from what Premier Ford was saying a week ago, saying that the entire province has to reopen together. It's a no-brainer, though, that in a province this size we would have different strategies in different areas. Sudbury has had no new cases for almost two weeks, and no active cases, so why is the list of businesses closed the same as in Toronto? Waterloo Region has a per capita case load less than a quarter of Peel's, so why are playgrounds here still closed, why are fines being issued for private gatherings larger than five?

As for the arguments against, the ones brought up by Ford and Williams are, respectively, that someone would drive from Toronto to Kingston for dinner, or to another jurisdiction for a haircut. But there might not be many regions ready for barber shops to open anyway- what about things like child care and some additional workplaces, that people are unlikely to seek out in different regions?

It does seem to make sense that different areas would open different.

As for the "fines" they have nothing to do with that, fines should be issued for people breaking the rules (after receiving warning), whether you agree with the rules or not.  There is not a systemic problem here with the rules, and they are changing, if you get ample warning, you have no excuse.

That being said, I do think that private gatherings are probably some of the last things which should be opened up.  I'm no epidemiolist, but from my understanding and my reading, outdoor is better than indoor, farther is better than closer, shorter is better than longer, and less people is better than more people.

Personal visits might meet the less people criteria, but they fail on basically every other count, yes, some people will sit on opposite ends of their back yard, but I suspect most people who have company will spend some time indoors, and in closer proximity as a result.

Same follows for businesses.
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(05-29-2020, 02:52 PM)danbrotherston Wrote: I'm no epidemiolist, but from my understanding and my reading, outdoor is better than indoor, farther is better than closer, shorter is better than longer, and less people is better than more people.

This is really sound advice, really clearly stated, maybe adding "less is better than more". The reality is that as we look at having to deal with Covid-19 for the long term, we have to have a strategy that people will realistically follow for the long term.
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(05-29-2020, 04:04 PM)jamincan Wrote:
(05-29-2020, 02:52 PM)danbrotherston Wrote: I'm no epidemiolist, but from my understanding and my reading, outdoor is better than indoor, farther is better than closer, shorter is better than longer, and less people is better than more people.

This is really sound advice, really clearly stated, maybe adding "less is better than more". The reality is that as we look at having to deal with Covid-19 for the long term, we have to have a strategy that people will realistically follow for the long term.

Indeed, the other thing I think people have trouble with is that they want absolutes, "how can I be safe"...and "if I can go to the grocery stores, why can't I get my hair done"....risk is a spectrum, a numbers game, well, we aren't very good with numbers.

I think the "less is better than more" style of phrasing probably helps with that, but I do think people (myself included) have trouble setting risk tolerance since the danger is very conceptual and very hard to operationalize.

Note, this is so true of other things as well, just look at climate change.
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(05-29-2020, 02:52 PM)danbrotherston Wrote: It does seem to make sense that different areas would open different.

As for the "fines" they have nothing to do with that, fines should be issued for people breaking the rules (after receiving warning), whether you agree with the rules or not.  There is not a systemic problem here with the rules, and they are changing, if you get ample warning, you have no excuse.

That being said, I do think that private gatherings are probably some of the last things which should be opened up.  I'm no epidemiolist, but from my understanding and my reading, outdoor is better than indoor, farther is better than closer, shorter is better than longer, and less people is better than more people.

Personal visits might meet the less people criteria, but they fail on basically every other count, yes, some people will sit on opposite ends of their back yard, but I suspect most people who have company will spend some time indoors, and in closer proximity as a result.

Same follows for businesses.
What I meant is that, even if it's not possible for the emergency order to be varied to such a degree between regions, definitely law enforcement in some regions could use discretion- whether in terms of issuing fines, or enforcing those aspects of the order at all.

Hopefully as we learn more there can be more thorough cost/benefit analyses on each type of restriction. In my opinion, forbidding private gatherings in private homes is extremely intrusive, and it had better make a big impact if it's to be tolerated.

I'm not sure that I buy your logic about personal visits and risk. Most people want to do their part to slow the spread- it's possible to conduct many small personal gatherings mostly outdoors, or mostly not too close.

That's not true of many workplaces that have already been permitted to open. I know what you're going to say, that those businesses are being opened because we need to get the economy going. That's fine, but the ability to get together and enjoy each other's company has value, too, even if it can't easily be measured in dollars and cents.
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