The COVID-19 pandemic

[jgsz]

43 new positive cases and a total 55 deaths in the Region of Waterloo.

https://www.regionofwaterloo.ca/en/healt...egion.aspx

[tomh009]

Only 437 new cases in Ontario today for a 3.1% increase. 491 recovered and 24 dead for a net reduction of just 86 active cases, the first drop in the number of active cases since the start of the pandemic. There are now 5,597 active cases given 8,000 recoveries and 835 deaths.  2520 confirmed positives to date among LTC facility residents, so 65 of today's 437 new cases are LTC residents. 

229,638 people tested to date, just over 11,000 tests for the day and over73,000 for the past seven days. 938 cases currently hospitalized (+13) and 252 in the ICU (+7).

Quebec added 840 cases today, with the rate of increase at 3.6%. 195,577 tests done to date, about 4,800 in the last 24h. 1518 currently hospitalized (+18) and 215 in ICU (-2).

March
2020-03-23 778 (+258%) 2020-03-24 1040 (+34%) 2020-03-25 1339 (+29%) 2020-03-26 1629 (+22%) 2020-03-27 2021 (+24%)
2020-03-28 2498 (+24%) 2020-03-29 2840 (+13%) 2020-03-30 3430 (+21%) 2020-03-31 4162 (+21%)
April
2020-04-01 4611 (+11%) 2020-04-02 5518 (+20%) 2020-04-03 6101 (+8%) 2020-04-04 6997 (+15%) 2020-04-05 7944 (+14%)
2020-04-06 8580 (+8%) 2020-04-07 9340 (+9%) 2020-04-08 10031 (+7%) 2020-04-09 10912 (+9%) 2020-04-10 11677 (+7%)
2020-04-11 12292 (+5%) 2020-04-12 12846 (+5%) 2020-04-13 13557 (+6%) 2020-04-14 14248 (+5%) 2020-04-15 14860 (+5%)
2020-04-16 15857 (+7%) 2020-04-17 16798 (+6%) 2020-04-18 17521 (+4%) 2020-04-19 18357 (+5%) 2020-04-20 19319 (+5%)
2020-04-21 20126 (+4%) 2020-04-22 20965 (+4%) 2020-04-23 21838 (+4%) 2020-04-24 22616 (+4%) 2020-04-25 23267  (+3%)
2020-04-26 24107 (+4%)

[tomh009]

43 new positive cases and a total 55 deaths in the Region of Waterloo.

https://www.regionofwaterloo.ca/en/healt...egion.aspx

27 of the 43 new cases were in LTC facilities or retirement homes. 44 of the 55 total deaths (and nine of the 10 latest deaths) are in the same.

Clearly this is the main COVID-19 challenge in the region (and in most of Canada) right now.

[jgsz]

43 new positive cases and a total 55 deaths in the Region of Waterloo.

https://www.regionofwaterloo.ca/en/healt...egion.aspx

27 of the 43 new cases were in LTC facilities or retirement homes. 44 of the 55 total deaths (and nine of the 10 latest deaths) are in the same.

Clearly this is the main COVID-19 challenge in the region (and in most of Canada) right now.

Unlike some places, women account for 68% of positive cases.  I imagine that many are the underpaid and overworked nursing staff at LTC facilities.  A horrifying situation that needs to be fixed immediately.

[embe]

Unlike some places, women account for 68% of positive cases.  I imagine that many are the underpaid and overworked nursing staff at LTC facilities.  A horrifying situation that needs to be fixed immediately.

This can be interpreted in a couple ways, and surely you don't mean male nursing staff would be more resilient?

Or what is the immediate fix?

[jgsz]

Unlike some places, women account for 68% of positive cases.  I imagine that many are the underpaid and overworked nursing staff at LTC facilities.  A horrifying situation that needs to be fixed immediately.

This can be interpreted in a couple ways, and surely you don't mean male nursing staff would be more resilient?

Or what is the immediate fix?

If anything, I would think that female staff would be more resilient.  

As for an immediate fix, that could be easy or difficult.  Obviously, more money, much more money, would go a long way to remedy the problem.   But the provincial government is not eager to spend money on subsidized LTC facilities.  They'll say there is no money and we shouldn't go into debt and have deficits etc.  But look at the money the federal and provincial governments can come up with when pressed on some issues.  Sure, there will be deficits but that's not the end of the world.  Just look at what is happening in the United States.  They say they don't have money for universal health-care but they are willing spend trillions trying to contain covid-19.  Where does all that money come from?  And why is it okay to run up a deficit on some issues and not others?

[tomh009]

Unlike some places, women account for 68% of positive cases.  I imagine that many are the underpaid and overworked nursing staff at LTC facilities.  A horrifying situation that needs to be fixed immediately.

Today's data shows it at 63% female cases. Lower, but still significantly over the population share. But the total number of LTC staff cases adds up to only 115, so I don't think that's sufficient to explain the difference (some LTC workers are male, too).

However, there are 228 confirmed cases in LTC and RH residents. And women are a significant majority of those, given their longer life expectancy.

I assume you are talking about addressing the LTC issues in general, rather than the percentage of women working there.

[robdrimmie]

According to https://www.statista.com/statistics/4448...age-group/ There are around 3.03 million Canadians 65 and over who identify as male, and 3.57 million Canadians 65 and over who identify as female.

According to https://www.statista.com/statistics/4969...by-gender/ the nursing workforce in Canada as of 2018 has 25,108 male-identified and 278,024 female-identified.

As such, it only stands to reason that there would be more covid19 cases amongst female-identified people in this population because this population skews very heavily female.

[tomh009]

Only 424 new cases in Ontario today for a 2.9% increase. 525 recovered and 57 dead for a net reduction of 158 active cases, a second drop in the number of active cases. There are now 5,439 active cases given 8,525 recoveries and 892 deaths.  2523 confirmed positives to date among LTC facility residents, so three of today's 424 new cases are LTC residents. 

242,188 people tested to date, 12,550 tests for the day and an average of over 11,000 for the past seven days. 945 cases currently hospitalized (+7) and 241 in the ICU (-11).

Quebec added 875 cases today, with the rate of increase steady at 3.6%. 200,172 tests done to date, about 4,600 in the last 24h. 1541 currently hospitalized (+23) and 210 in ICU (-5).

March
2020-03-23 778 (+258%) 2020-03-24 1040 (+34%) 2020-03-25 1339 (+29%) 2020-03-26 1629 (+22%) 2020-03-27 2021 (+24%)
2020-03-28 2498 (+24%) 2020-03-29 2840 (+13%) 2020-03-30 3430 (+21%) 2020-03-31 4162 (+21%)
April
2020-04-01 4611 (+11%) 2020-04-02 5518 (+20%) 2020-04-03 6101 (+8%) 2020-04-04 6997 (+15%) 2020-04-05 7944 (+14%)
2020-04-06 8580 (+8%) 2020-04-07 9340 (+9%) 2020-04-08 10031 (+7%) 2020-04-09 10912 (+9%) 2020-04-10 11677 (+7%)
2020-04-11 12292 (+5%) 2020-04-12 12846 (+5%) 2020-04-13 13557 (+6%) 2020-04-14 14248 (+5%) 2020-04-15 14860 (+5%)
2020-04-16 15857 (+7%) 2020-04-17 16798 (+6%) 2020-04-18 17521 (+4%) 2020-04-19 18357 (+5%) 2020-04-20 19319 (+5%)
2020-04-21 20126 (+4%) 2020-04-22 20965 (+4%) 2020-04-23 21838 (+4%) 2020-04-24 22616 (+4%) 2020-04-25 23267  (+3%)
2020-04-26 24107 (+4%) 2020-04-27 24982 (+4%)

[tomh009]

242,188 people tested to date, 12,550 tests for the day and an average of over 11,000 for the past seven days. 945 cases currently hospitalized (+7) and 241 in the ICU (-11).

From today's article in the Record:

Ontario's intensive care and ventilator capacity is in a good position, (Health Minister Christine) Elliott said, though hospitalization numbers have been rising, partly due to long-term care residents being moved to hospital.

That explains things. The ICU number has been pretty stable for the last three weeks, but during that same time the total number of hospital beds has gone up from 614 to 910.

[ac3r]

The Covid-19 unit at GRH Freeport Hospital is starting to become operational. By tomorrow, they should have upwards of 30 patients there (all non ICU I would assume). It's being housed on a floor that is generally disused, but they have spent a few weeks bringing in beds and equipment to get it up and running. It will of course be entirely off limits to everyone but the staff trained to work in those units. I wonder how they'll manage housekeeping there? I know Freeport uses contract staff for their housekeepers (the downtown location has their own who work for GRH) so I wonder if GRH will bring in their own staff to work this unit, in order to minimize any chances of spreading the virus to the rest of the hospital. Considering this is a chronic care and psychiatric facility, I would sure hope they are able to contain SARS-CoV-2 to this unit only, because if it spread it could take out a lot of elderly patients.

[ac3r]

Do you know anyone who can sew? Sunnyside Long Term Care Home has an urgent call for volunteers to help sew isolation gowns. They will provide you with the material and sewing pattern which you can pick up Monday to Friday from 1-4PM at a storage box at the main entrance. It seems like they also need face masks and scrub caps - I don't know if they provide the material needed for the masks, but they do have someone you can e-mail to get more information and the pattern they would like to use. I would guess they need to be made of cotton, as that has been shown to be the best material for homemade masks.

[tomh009]

A step backwards today with 525 new cases in Ontario for a 3.5% increase. 439 recovered and 59 dead for a net gain of 27 active cases: the average daily increase for the past week is now only 23 active cases. There are now 5,466 active cases given 8,964 recoveries and 951 deaths.  2491 confirmed positives to date among LTC facility residents, a small downward adjustment from yesterday. 

253,040 people tested to date, 10,852 tests for the day and seven straight days of 10,000+ tests. 957 cases currently hospitalized (+12) and 239 in the ICU (-2).

Quebec added 775 cases today, with the rate of increase down to 3.1%. 204,472 tests done to date, about 4,400 in the last 24h. 1625 currently hospitalized (+84) and 217 in ICU (+7).

March
2020-03-23 778 (+258%) 2020-03-24 1040 (+34%) 2020-03-25 1339 (+29%) 2020-03-26 1629 (+22%) 2020-03-27 2021 (+24%)
2020-03-28 2498 (+24%) 2020-03-29 2840 (+13%) 2020-03-30 3430 (+21%) 2020-03-31 4162 (+21%)
April
2020-04-01 4611 (+11%) 2020-04-02 5518 (+20%) 2020-04-03 6101 (+8%) 2020-04-04 6997 (+15%) 2020-04-05 7944 (+14%)
2020-04-06 8580 (+8%) 2020-04-07 9340 (+9%) 2020-04-08 10031 (+7%) 2020-04-09 10912 (+9%) 2020-04-10 11677 (+7%)
2020-04-11 12292 (+5%) 2020-04-12 12846 (+5%) 2020-04-13 13557 (+6%) 2020-04-14 14248 (+5%) 2020-04-15 14860 (+5%)
2020-04-16 15857 (+7%) 2020-04-17 16798 (+6%) 2020-04-18 17521 (+4%) 2020-04-19 18357 (+5%) 2020-04-20 19319 (+5%)
2020-04-21 20126 (+4%) 2020-04-22 20965 (+4%) 2020-04-23 21838 (+4%) 2020-04-24 22616 (+4%) 2020-04-25 23267  (+3%)
2020-04-26 24107 (+4%) 2020-04-27 24982 (+4%) 2020-04-28 25757 (+3%)

[tomh009]

A very positive report today, with only 347 new cases in Ontario, the lowest since 05 April, for a 2.3% increase. 648 recovered and 45 dead for a net reduction of 346 (!) active cases, the trend line is now looking very encouraging. There are now 5,120 active cases given 9,612 recoveries and 996 deaths. The ratio of deaths to recoveries has been quite steady at just below 1:10.  2632 confirmed positives to date among LTC facility residents, 140 of the 347 new cases among LTC residents. 

246,952 tests to date (less than yesterday -- a change in methodology?) with 11,554 tests for the day. 977 cases currently hospitalized (+20) and 235 in the ICU (-2). Hospitalization number is still creeping up (due to LTC transfers?) but the ICU population has been stable for the past three weeks.

Quebec added 837 cases today, with the rate of increase of 3.1%. 209,816 tests done to date, about 5,300 in the last 24h. 1648 currently hospitalized (+23) and 222 in ICU (+5).

Quebec is reporting 18,785 which means over 70% of the confirmed cases are still active, with only 6,028 recovered. This compares to about 30% of the confirmed cases being active in Ontario. Are the criteria different? Or are some Quebec regions not reporting recoveries? Not enough detail on the Quebec site!
https://www.inspq.qc.ca/covid-19/donnees

March
2020-03-23 778 (+258%) 2020-03-24 1040 (+34%) 2020-03-25 1339 (+29%) 2020-03-26 1629 (+22%) 2020-03-27 2021 (+24%)
2020-03-28 2498 (+24%) 2020-03-29 2840 (+13%) 2020-03-30 3430 (+21%) 2020-03-31 4162 (+21%)
April
2020-04-01 4611 (+11%) 2020-04-02 5518 (+20%) 2020-04-03 6101 (+8%) 2020-04-04 6997 (+15%) 2020-04-05 7944 (+14%)
2020-04-06 8580 (+8%) 2020-04-07 9340 (+9%) 2020-04-08 10031 (+7%) 2020-04-09 10912 (+9%) 2020-04-10 11677 (+7%)
2020-04-11 12292 (+5%) 2020-04-12 12846 (+5%) 2020-04-13 13557 (+6%) 2020-04-14 14248 (+5%) 2020-04-15 14860 (+5%)
2020-04-16 15857 (+7%) 2020-04-17 16798 (+6%) 2020-04-18 17521 (+4%) 2020-04-19 18357 (+5%) 2020-04-20 19319 (+5%)
2020-04-21 20126 (+4%) 2020-04-22 20965 (+4%) 2020-04-23 21838 (+4%) 2020-04-24 22616 (+4%) 2020-04-25 23267  (+3%)
2020-04-26 24107 (+4%) 2020-04-27 24982 (+4%) 2020-04-28 25757 (+3%) 2020-04-29 26594 (+3%)

[Rainrider22]

Thank you for your continued statistical reporting. I read it each day and appreciate your efforts Tom....