The COVID-19 pandemic

[tomh009]

Waterloo Region reported 12 new cases yesterday, a 1.2% increase on the total and 3.9% of active cases. There are now 308 active cases, given 578 recoveries and 111 deaths.

Ontario new-case count up 391 today, a 1.8% increase on the total and 11.4% of active cases. 379 recovered and 33 dead for a net decrease of 21 active cases. There are now 3,435 active cases, given 17,020 recoveries and 1,858 deaths.

528,609 tests to date with 17,768 for the day. 2.2% of the daily tests were positive. 975 cases currently hospitalized (-11) and 180 in the ICU (+1).

Quebec reported 763 new cases for a total of 42,183 to date> This was from 8,684 tests for a 8.8% positivity rate. ICU occupancy down to 179.

[KevinL]

Shocking to think that, in a Region this size, simple medical tests need to be sent to out of town labs to be processed.  One hopes lessons will be learned ....

It's not really that simple a test, compared to most medical testing as it's checking for the viral RNA. Until now, there has been no need to have this level of RNA testing capacity.

Then why do other regions have the capacity for such testing when we don't?

[tomh009]

It's not really that simple a test, compared to most medical testing as it's checking for the viral RNA. Until now, there has been no need to have this level of RNA testing capacity.

Then why do other regions have the capacity for such testing when we don't?

I didn't say it wasn't possible, or that we shouldn't have more capacity. I don't know what the current challenges are for those.

My point was merely that this is not a "simple" test on the level of, say, a hemoglobin test, which is why almost every country has struggled to get their testing capacity up.

[danbrotherston]

It's not really that simple a test, compared to most medical testing as it's checking for the viral RNA. Until now, there has been no need to have this level of RNA testing capacity.

Then why do other regions have the capacity for such testing when we don't?

Why does any region have highly specialized equipment and skillsets....

We have an advanced tech and manufacturing industry here, other cities will probably ask why they don't have the skills to build what we can build.

Specialization is the heart of our society, even on the level of regions and countries.

Not to say that we shouldn't necessarily be building out this ability locally, but it's not unreasonable that we didn't have it before.

[tomh009]

Waterloo Region reported 14 new cases yesterday, another uptick over the seven-day average of 11.3. It's a 1.4% increase on the total and 4.6% of active cases. There are now 304 active cases, given 595 recoveries and 112 deaths.

Ontario new-case count up 340 today, a 1.5% increase on the total and 10.0% of active cases. 340 recovered and 23 dead for a net decrease of 23 active cases. There are now 3,412 active cases, given 17,360 recoveries and 1,881 deaths.

544,826 tests to date with 16,217 for the day. 2.1% of the daily tests were positive. 934 cases currently hospitalized (-41) and 171 in the ICU (-9).

Quebec reported 737 new cases for a total of 42,920 to date. This was from 8,378 tests for another 8.8% positivity rate. ICU occupancy up to 183 (+4).

   

(Horizontal scale is in days, starting from April 1. Sorry for the lack of proper labels.)

[tomh009]

Waterloo Region reported 22 new cases yesterday, the most in two weeks. The number of new cases has been creeping up over the last week, and this is now 2.2% increase on the total and 7.2% of active cases. There are now 306 active cases (+2), given 615 recoveries and 112 deaths.

Ontario new-case count up 304 today, a 1.3% increase on the total and 8.9% of active cases. 304 recovered and 23 dead for a net increase of three active cases. There are now 3,415 active cases, given 17,638 recoveries and 1,904 deaths.

553,981 tests to date with 9,155 for the day; it's a long weekend, but that's still the lowest number of tests since mid-April. Given the small number of tests, 3.3% of the daily tests were positive. 972 cases currently hospitalized (+38) and 174 in the ICU (+3).

Quebec reported 707 new cases for a total of 43,627 to date. This was from 7,506 people tested for a 9.4% positivity rate. ICU occupancy back down to 179.

Bafflingly, the total number of people tested in Quebec is up by 7,506 but 13,435 new tests were processed. I can't think of an explanation of how the number of tests was higher by almost 6,000. Frequently positive tests are repeated for confirmation, but that would only account for approximately 700 of the "surplus" 6,000 tests.

[danbrotherston]

Moderna's COVID-19 vaccine seems to be doing well in it's phase 1 trial and sounds to be moving to phase 2.

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-ne...r-n1209161

[tomh009]

Moderna's COVID-19 vaccine seems to be doing well in it's phase 1 trial and sounds to be moving to phase 2.

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-ne...r-n1209161

It's still pretty early in the process, though.

University of Melbourne's vaccine project is the furthest along as it is recruiting volunteers for phase 3. The speed advantage it has derives from being based on the BCG vaccine.

Vaccine tracker here:
https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/n...ne-tracker

[danbrotherston]

Moderna's COVID-19 vaccine seems to be doing well in it's phase 1 trial and sounds to be moving to phase 2.

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-ne...r-n1209161

It's still pretty early in the process, though.

University of Melbourne's vaccine project is the furthest along as it is recruiting volunteers for phase 3. The speed advantage it has derives from being based on the BCG vaccine.

Vaccine tracker here:
https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/n...ne-tracker

I'm not suggesting there isn't a lot of work to do, but it is still great progress.

The BCG vaccine is an interesting prospect, but the reason it is already in Phase 3 is it isn't a vaccine for COVID, merely a vaccine that seems to correlated with, by some currently unknown mechanism (the BCG vaccine doesn't induce COVID antibodies in the recipients), protection against COVID-19. While the fact that it's already a known safe vaccine is a huge benefit and makes it absolutely worth testing, it is far far less likely to prove out as a useful vaccine.

On the other hand, the moderna vaccine entering phase 2 means it has been shown to be safe in a small test group, and also has been shown to induce COVID-19 antibodies in the recipients. While it may be farther off, it is far better understood as to how and why it would confer protection.

[tomh009]

Moderna's vaccine is promising, but before phase II, the probability that it will pass all the hurdles is still pretty low, and that's why there are over 60 vaccine developments ongoing in parallel.

The BCG vaccine is indeed no COVID-specific. However, like the other vaccine initiatives, it may yet prove to be effective, and since its safety is already well understood, it can move through the process more quickly. We'll likely know its effectiveness well before any of the other vaccine candidates make it to phase III (Moderna is saying "early summer" for phase III but that really seems extremely unlikely unless your last name rhymes with "rump").

[tomh009]

Waterloo Region reported only four new cases yesterday, the least in a long time and balancing out the 22 cases from the day before. This is a 0.4% increase on the total and 1.6% of active cases. There are now only 253 active cases (-53) in the region, given 673 recoveries and 111 deaths.

Ontario new-case count up 427 today, the biggest number of new cases in the last 12 days in spite of limited testing on the long weekend. It's a 1.9% increase on the total and 12.0% of active cases. 260 recovered and 15 dead for a net increase of 152 active cases. There are now 3,567 active cases, given 17,898 recoveries and 1,919 deaths.

559,794 tests to date with only 5,813 for the day, the lowest since mid-April. Given the small number of tests, a whopping 7.3% of the daily tests were positive. 87 cases currently hospitalized (+15) and 167 in the ICU (-7). The ICU numbers continue to be good, and this is the lowest level since the beginning of April -- but ICU patients are a lagging indicator. Hopefully the high number of new cases is just a one-day aberration.

Quebec reported only 570 new cases for a total of 44,197 to date. This was from 5,937 tests, though, for a 9.6% positivity rate. ICU occupancy stable at 180 (+1).

[tomh009]

Bafflingly, the total number of people tested in Quebec is up by 7,506 but 13,435 new tests were processed. I can't think of an explanation of how the number of tests was higher by almost 6,000. Frequently positive tests are repeated for confirmation, but that would only account for approximately 700 of the "surplus" 6,000 tests.

I figured this out ... the number of positive and negative cases is for the previous day (currently 18 May) but the number of tests run (in the same report!) is for the preceding day, in this case 17 May. A very confusing way to present this data.

[danbrotherston]

There is another study going on about COVID and the effect on people's lives:

https://edinburgh.onlinesurveys.ac.uk/covid-19_study

[tomh009]

Waterloo Region reported 12 new cases yesterday, for a 1.2% increase on the total and 4.6% of active cases. There are now only 262 active cases (+9) in the region, given only two new recoveries (675 total) and 112 deaths.

Ontario new-case count up 390 today, with a 1.7% increase on the total and 10.8% of active cases. 292 recovered and 43 dead for a net increase of 55 active cases. That's three straight days of active-case increases, which is not a good sign: we have gone from 3,415 active cases to 3,622, given 18,190 recoveries and 1,962 deaths.

567,176 tests to date with only 7,382 for the day, with the tail end of the long weekend being reported. With the small number of tests, 5.3% of the daily tests were positive. 991 cases currently hospitalized (+4) and the ICU count is now down to 160 (-7), from the peak of 264 in early April.

Quebec (now using INSPQ data which is more complete) saw 503 new cases, 1.3% of total. That's from 9,582 people tested for a 5.2% positivity rate, lower than Ontario.

[embe]

Curious if there is a stat to show correlation between cases vs. population.  For example: if there are 262 active cases in the region, and assuming a 262K population, that's like one out of every 1000 people.  (using rough numbers for the sake of simplicity).