The COVID-19 pandemic

[jeffster]

That might be true, but the government could easily restrict sales of N95's, which was needed by the medical community. In the early stages, they said anything less than N95's were useless. There wasn't much thought given to the idea that masks could limit spread. Dr. Tam was quite vocal initially that simple masks were ineffective.

N95 is what a doctor or nurse absolutely needs when dealing with an infectious patient. But every healthcare worker, whether in a hospital or in LTC, should have been wearing a surgical mask to limit the spread. Unfortunately there was a serious shortage of those, too.

So, I think what happened was that they tried to deemphasize the importance of masks to the public to avoid a panic. And the message was muddled, causing no end of confusion.

It's actually surprising how unprepared we were. You can't say were weren't warned. Obama was talking about it a couple years before he left. With Hollywood movies also depicting it (and Contagion being eerily accurate), we should have been prepared. Even the Bible talks about it.

That said, I don't agree with the so-called experts in the early goings. As I said, I have hard arguments with people over PPE in the early going. Many would site Dr. Tam, or Dr. Fauci, the experts, on why masks were no good. And while I have a lot of respect for both doctors, they really did let the public down. And I am still surprised that mandatory masks still isn't a thing nation wide. The feds have the ability to mandate it, they haven't.

[KevinL]

I think there was too much early focus on masks blocking the virus completely, as opposed to mitigation. It later became clear how well they worked even if imperfectly.

[ac3r]

Almost 100 people gathered Sunday at a “Hugs Over Masks” rally in Victoria Park.

Organizer Vlad Sobolev said he wants the Region of Waterloo to end the mandatory mask-wearing bylaw in indoor public spaces.

He questions the effectiveness of masks to help stop the spread of COVID-19, along with other safety measures.

However, the vast majority of medical authorities are in agreement that wearing even non-medical cloth masks does limit the spread of the disease.

The Hugs Over Masks group insists these measures are about controlling the public rather than providing safety, and that mask-wearing can cause physiological and psychological damage, especially to children.

Looks like the circus came to the city after all. It was a pretty small turnout given that there are over 600'000 people here.

Kitchener rally opposes mandator masks

[tomh009]

I guess we should expect a spike next week. Evolution in action ...

[tomh009]

Waterloo Region reported six new cases over the past three days, or a daily average of 0.1% of the total and 8.5% of the active cases. Active cases have popped back up to 24 from the low of 20.

Testing data is due to be reported tomorrow.

Ontario reported 115 new cases today, back up over 100 for the first time in over a week, with a seven-day average of 89. 102 recoveries and no deaths translated to an increase of 13 cases, but still below 1,000, with a total of 994 active cases. A weekly total change of -280. 22,275 tests for a 0.52% positivity rate. The positivity rate is averaging 0.39% for the past seven days.

The new cases are 0.3% of the total and 11.6% of the number of active cases. New cases averaging 8.2% of actives over the past seven days.

The ICU population is down to 25 (-1).

• 16 cases in Toronto: 0.5 per 100K population
  
• 20 cases in Ottawa: 2.0 per 100K population
  
• 19 cases in Peel: 1.9 per 100K population
  
• 12 cases in Windsor-Essex: 6.7 per 100K population
  
• 2 cases in Waterloo: 0.3 per 100K population
  

The list is back to the recent normal with Toronto, Peel, Ottawa and Windsor still struggling to get the caseload down.

(The Waterloo number is from the regional report rather than the Ontario one.)

[ijmorlan]

I guess we should expect a spike next week. Evolution in action ...

Not necessarily. There are at this point under 1000 cases in Ontario, and under 100 people were at the rally. So it’s entirely possible no transmission at all took place there.

Of course, this in no way means that those people aren’t idiots; but it’s possible they will get away with it, just as people who run red lights or race the train usually get away with it.

Correction: according to the article people came and went, so it’s hard to say what the total was. I don’t think that much affects my conclusion however. Let’s hope they get away with it, for all of us.

[panamaniac]

Almost 100 people gathered Sunday at a “Hugs Over Masks” rally in Victoria Park.

Organizer Vlad Sobolev said he wants the Region of Waterloo to end the mandatory mask-wearing bylaw in indoor public spaces.

He questions the effectiveness of masks to help stop the spread of COVID-19, along with other safety measures.

However, the vast majority of medical authorities are in agreement that wearing even non-medical cloth masks does limit the spread of the disease.

The Hugs Over Masks group insists these measures are about controlling the public rather than providing safety, and that mask-wearing can cause physiological and psychological damage, especially to children.

Looks like the circus came to the city after all. It was a pretty small turnout given that there are over 600'000 people here.

Kitchener rally opposes mandator masks

Good to see them shown for an extreme fringe.

[ac3r]

Looks like the Hugs over Intelligence Masks people are now handing out flyers in the streets. Image taken from Reddit, where a user says they were aggressively handed this card of nonsense while uptown.

[danbrotherston]

Looks like the Hugs over Intelligence Masks people are now handing out flyers in the streets. Image taken from Reddit, where a user says they were aggressively handed this card of nonsense while uptown.

If someone gets close enough to me to hand me something I will be not be polite to them.

[panamaniac]

"Aggressively" handed? Is that like an assault? What happens if you don't say anything and don't put your hand out?

[danbrotherston]

"Aggressively" handed?  Is that like an assault?  What happens if you don't say anything and don't put your hand out?

If you've not experienced someone aggressively handing you something, you might not know, and I suppose it's possible, but if you have experience it, you know exactly what it means.

If you don't put your hand out, you still get something put in your hand.

[jeffster]

Interesting handout. I did have to look up the one citation:

Abstract

Background: During the 2003 severe acute respiratory distress syndrome epidemic, healthcare workers mandatorily wore the protective N95 face-mask.

Methods: We administered a survey to healthcare workers to determine risk factors associated with development of headaches (frequency, headache subtypes and duration of face-mask wear) and the impact of headaches (sick days, headache frequency and use of abortive/preventive headache medications).

Results: In the survey, 212 (47 male, 165 female) healthcare workers of mean age 31 years (range, 21-58) participated. Of the 79 (37.3%) respondents who reported face-mask-associated headaches, 26 (32.9%) reported headache frequency exceeding six times per month. Six (7.6%) had taken sick leave from March 2003 to June 2004 (mean 2 days; range 1-4 days) and 47 (59.5%) required use of abortive analgesics because of headache. Four (2.1%) took preventive medications for headaches during this period. Multivariate logistic regression showed that pre-existing headaches [P = 0.041, OR = 1.97 (95% CI 1.03-3.77)] and continuous use of the N95 face-mask exceeding 4 h [P = 0.053, OR = 1.85 (95% CI 0.99-3.43)] were associated with development of headaches.

Conclusions: Healthcare providers may develop headaches following the use of the N95 face-mask. Shorter duration of face-mask wear may reduce the frequency and severity of these headaches.

My thoughts: 1) We're talking N95's....not standard masks. 2) They were wearing masks 4h+ AND 3) It mentions that pre-existing headaches were associated with development of headaches.

The third part is has me thinking, no shit Sherlock.

On another note, no one needed the use of a hospital.

Now, what would have been the costs of NOT wearing a mask? How many would have come down with SARS? How much more would it have spread? How many more dead people would we have?

[tomh009]

Duh.

This is pretty feeble as far as research goes. But I guess all five (!) authors got a publication credit for it so it was worth doing. They might have spent more than afternoon doing it, even.

[tomh009]

Waterloo Region reported three new cases over the past three days, or 0.2% of the total and 12.0% of the active cases. Active cases have crept back up to 25 (+1).

2,210 tests over the past four days for an average of 552 per day and a positivity rate of 0.41%. The seven-day average positivity rate is 3.0%.

Ontario reported just 33 net new cases today, an amazingly low number, but it includes a reduction of at least 25 previously-reported cases so I expect that the actual number of new cases is 60+. The seven-day average is 81. 75 recoveries and no deaths translated to a drop of 42 cases, taking us down to just 952 active cases. A weekly total change of -293. 21,581 tests for a 0.15% (net) positivity rate (this, too, is understated today). The positivity rate is averaging 0.32% for the past seven days.

The new cases are 0.1% of the total and 3.5% of the number of active cases. New cases averaging 7.7% of actives over the past seven days.

The ICU population is down to a new low of 21 (-4); the total hospital population is now roughly 60 -- it peaked at over 1,000.

• 10 cases in Windsor-Essex: 5.6 per 100K population
  
• 3 cases in Waterloo: 0.5 per 100K population
  

Toronto likely should be on the list, too, except for the corrections to the prior data.

[ac3r]

Here is a more detailed breakdown of today with some graphs/charts illustrating the past and current case numbers here in Ontario. This is great to see. I am just hoping the reopening of schools doesn't cause a very big spike in the numbers. It seems like many people who work in the education system are a bit worried the plans to reopen are not sufficiently safe, and they're looking south of the border to the USA for hints at what could happen if things are not done right. We're also finally seeing proof that children are very susceptible to catching and transmitting the virus, something we didn't really see much of in the world until recently, as schools were shut down and children weren't as exposed.

September will be important, especially with winter just around the corner. Any increase in numbers could get bad as people spend more time indoors in the colder months.