The COVID-19 pandemic

[danbrotherston]

Speaking of second wave, it's arrived alright.

I'd prefer number of hospitalisations or deaths as a better public metric. Too many people under 40 think this wave is overblown because it is "only" bad for older people.

Not really sure of your point.

The reason it is important to look at all metrics is that they tell us different things. New cases as a metric appear weeks earlier than hospitalizations and close to a month earlier than deaths.

If we wait for deaths, we're going to have a bad time because we'll be reacting way too late.

And yes, if I never hear another person trivialize the death of my high risk loved ones, it will be too fucking soon.

[tomh009]

Speaking of second wave, it's arrived alright.

I'd prefer number of hospitalisations or deaths as a better public metric. Too many people under 40 think this wave is overblown because it is "only" bad for older people.

The hospitalizations are available on the Ontario government site. I don't include them in my summaries any more since too often the hospitals' reporting is inconsistent.

The death rates will be lower now because we'll (hopefully) avoid the LTC outbreaks, the average patients are younger and the doctors have experience treating COVID-19. But they will not be zero, either, even for younger people (you can also see the deaths by age range on the Ontario government site.

And "not dead" doesn't mean "healthy". An extended family member spent over three months in ICU (including a long stint on a kidney dialysis machine) and was recently released from hospital. He's over 50 but not by much, and was healthy otherwise. But he faces a long rehab before he can get back to work, and he may never fully recover.

[ac3r]

An unnamed gym in the city now has an outbreak of Covid-19: https://kitchener.ctvnews.ca/covid-19-ou...-1.5110515

[panamaniac]

An unnamed gym in the city now has an outbreak of Covid-19: https://kitchener.ctvnews.ca/covid-19-ou...-1.5110515

Doesn’t the CTV piece identify it as F45?  Is there more than one in K-W?

[ac3r]

It seems they updated it around 4PM to say it was F45, but for most of the day there was no location named.

[danbrotherston]

It seems they updated it around 4PM to say it was F45, but for most of the day there was no location named.

Which F45....it wouldn't be the one at the testing centre would it? That would just be too perfect.

[plam]

I'd prefer number of hospitalisations or deaths as a better public metric. Too many people under 40 think this wave is overblown because it is "only" bad for older people.

The hospitalizations are available on the Ontario government site. I don't include them in my summaries any more since too often the hospitals' reporting is inconsistent.

The death rates will be lower now because we'll (hopefully) avoid the LTC outbreaks, the average patients are younger and the doctors have experience treating COVID-19. But they will not be zero, either, even for younger people (you can also see the deaths by age range on the Ontario government site.

And "not dead" doesn't mean "healthy". An extended family member spent over three months in ICU (including a long stint on a kidney dialysis machine) and was recently released from hospital. He's over 50 but not by much, and was healthy otherwise. But he faces a long rehab before he can get back to work, and he may never fully recover.

I think classifying infections as "mild" was a terrible PR move. Lots of "mild" cases aren't actually mild and way worse than a flu (which is already quite bad).

Apart from that, yes, hospitalizations are too late.

[danbrotherston]

The hospitalizations are available on the Ontario government site. I don't include them in my summaries any more since too often the hospitals' reporting is inconsistent.

The death rates will be lower now because we'll (hopefully) avoid the LTC outbreaks, the average patients are younger and the doctors have experience treating COVID-19. But they will not be zero, either, even for younger people (you can also see the deaths by age range on the Ontario government site.

And "not dead" doesn't mean "healthy". An extended family member spent over three months in ICU (including a long stint on a kidney dialysis machine) and was recently released from hospital. He's over 50 but not by much, and was healthy otherwise. But he faces a long rehab before he can get back to work, and he may never fully recover.

I think classifying infections as "mild" was a terrible PR move. Lots of "mild" cases aren't actually mild and way worse than a flu (which is already quite bad).

Apart from that, yes, hospitalizations are too late.

Yeah, that was a bit of a misnomer...I mean the progression more or less goes dead, ventilated, hospitalized, mild...so like, if you aren't in the hospital, it's "mild"...that being said, "mild" is a huge range, some people are not affected that strongly...so some are definitely not finding it as bad as the "flu" (although I'm sure there are flus that are also mild).

[tomh009]

FRIDAY 2020-09-18

Waterloo Region reported eight new cases today (0.5% of the total and 8.4% of the active cases) -- plus five more for yesterday. 55 new cases for the week, averaging 11.0% of active cases. 87 active cases (+35 in the last seven days).

Weekly testing is averaging 993 per day, better than for the past month, with a 0.79% positivity rate.

Ontario reported 401 new cases today -- first time over 400 since 01 June -- with a seven-day average of 287, still going up fast. 176 recoveries and zero deaths translated to an increase of 225 active cases and a current total of 2,652. A weekly total change of +995 active cases. 35,826 tests for a 1.12% positivity rate. The positivity rate is averaging 0.90% for the past seven days.

The new cases are 0.9% of the total and 15.1% of the number of active cases. New cases averaging 13.1% of actives over the past seven days.

ICU patient count is at 20 (-1).

• 130 cases in Toronto: 4.0 per 100K population
  
• 82 cases in Peel: 5.3 per 100K
  
• 61 cases in Ottawa: 6.1 per 100K
  
• 40 cases in York: 3,6 per 100K
  
• 19 cases in Halton: 3.1 per 100K
  
• 9 cases in Waterloo: 1.5 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  

GTA + Ottawa accounting for 332 of 401 cases, or 83%.

[tomh009]

SATURDAY 2020-09-19

Waterloo Region reported eight new cases today (8.5% of the active cases) -- plus four more for yesterday. 61 new cases for the week, averaging 11.2% of active cases. 94 active cases (+43 in the last seven days).

Next testing update on Tuesday.

Ontario reported 407 new cases today with a seven-day average of 312, still going up fast. 177 recoveries and one death translated to an increase of 229 active cases and a current total of 2,881. A weekly total change of +1,112 active cases. 38,940 tests -- a new high -- for a 1.05% positivity rate. The positivity rate is averaging 0.96% for the past seven days.

The new cases are 14.1% of the number of active cases, averaging 13.3% over the past seven days.

ICU patient count is at 20 (+0).

• 129 cases in Toronto: 4.0 per 100K population
  
• 94 cases in Peel: 6.5 per 100K
  
• 55 cases in Ottawa: 5.5 per 100K
  
• 28 cases in York: 2.5 per 100K
  
• 18 cases in Halton: 3.0 per 100K
  
• 14 cases in Waterloo: 2.3 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 14 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 5.6 per 100K
  
• 11 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 3.0 per 100K
  

GTA + Ottawa accounting for 324 of 407 cases, or 80%.

[tomh009]

SUNDAY 2020-09-20

Waterloo Region reported 26 (!) new cases today (21.5% of the active cases), including the correction reported on Monday. I believe this is the second-highest daily total ever. It appears that a "hospitality outbreak" (restaurant? bar? hotel?) accounts for most of this cases.  84 new cases for the week, averaging 13.2% of active cases. 121 active cases (+65 in the last seven days).

Next testing update on Tuesday.

Ontario reported 365 new cases today with a seven-day average of 335, still going up fast. 191 recoveries and no deaths translated to an increase of 174 active cases and a current total of 3,055. A weekly total change of +1,207 active cases. 40,127 tests -- another new high -- for a 0.91% positivity rate. The positivity rate is averaging 1.00% for the past seven days.

The new cases are 11.9% of the number of active cases, averaging 13.4% over the past seven days.

ICU patient count is at 20 (+0).

• 113 cases in Toronto: 3.5 per 100K population
  
• 108 cases in Peel: 10.8 per 100K
  
• 38 cases in York: 3.4 per 100K
  
• 24 cases in Halton: 4.0 per 100K
  
• 20 cases in Waterloo: 3.3 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 19 cases in Durham: 3.0 per 100K
  
• 14 cases in Ottawa: 1.4 per 100K
  

GTA + Ottawa accounting for 302 of 365 cases, or 83%.

[tomh009]

MONDAY 2020-09-21

Waterloo Region reported seven new cases today (5.6% of the active cases).  80 new cases for the week, averaging 11.6% of active cases. 126 active cases (+59 in the last seven days).

Next testing update on Tuesday.

Ontario reported 425 new cases today with a seven-day average of 351, still going up fast. 178 recoveries and three deaths translated to an increase of 244 active cases and a current total of 3,299. A weekly total change of +1,272 active cases. 31,753 tests for a 1.34% positivity rate. The positivity rate is averaging 1.04% for the past seven days.

The new cases are 12.9% of the number of active cases, averaging 13.1% over the past seven days.

ICU patient count is at 22 (+2).

• 175 cases in Toronto: 5.5 per 100K population
  
• 84 cases in Peel: 8.4 per 100K
  
• 60 cases in Ottawa: 6.0 per 100K
  
• 20 cases in York: 1.8 per 100K
  
• 14 cases in Durham: 2.1 per 100K
  
• 13 cases in Waterloo: 2.0 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 12 cases in Halton: 2.0 per 100K
  

GTA + Ottawa accounting for 365 of 425 cases, or 86%.

[ZEBuilder]

Ontario reported 3425 new cases today

Isn't this supposed to be 425 new cases?

[jeffster]

MONDAY 2020-09-21


Ontario reported 3425 new cases.

Damn, that escalated quickly.

[tomh009]

Ontario reported 3425 new cases today

Isn't this supposed to be 425 new cases?

Yes! I will fix.