The COVID-19 pandemic

[ac3r]

I think the issue is mostly that Karen Redman is a public leader for this city and should be projecting a better message than "it's Oktoberfest, hit the beer tents everyone!" in the middle of a pandemic. Sure, the festival venues are doing their best to adhere to the public health rules, but they can't be expected to protect us from others - especially drunk people at a party. I think we all have a hard enough time walking through Zehrs without people getting too close at times, but we're supposed to accept that it's okay to sit around indoors without masks with a couple dozen people while everyone shouts really loudly, eats and drinks.

It just comes off as being irresponsible for a politician to pull a political photo stunt to generate business when case numbers are rising incredibly fast throughout the province and within our own city. We are really struggling to send a coherent message to the residents of this province on what we're supposed to be doing about these rising case numbers. We're being told to reconsider Thanksgiving dinner with our own families, but that it's fine to get drunk indoors with complete strangers.

You raise the issue about social bubbles, but it's important to note that health officials in Toronto and elsewhere are now saying that it's time we annul that idea for now because the level of transmission is growing so rapidly. This is definitely not the time to be holding an Oktoberfest...we've been watching things get worse and worse for weeks.

1 - People are not drunk.
2 - There was no shouting / singing.
3 - There are not a "couple of dozen" sitting around without masks.  Table max was 6.  Tables were more than 2m apart.  Only those from the same household were allowed to sit at the same table.
4 - If anyone was standing away from the table, they were quickly moved back.  There was no inter-table mingling.

I get @danbrotherston is against restaurants in general during this time, and I respect his right to feel that way.  Not sure your thoughts on them, but these events are the same as every other restaurant, and in fact, are much safer than the nightclubs that opened for a short period.

Coke

Reckless beyond belief.

[tomh009]

SATURDAY 2020-10-10

Waterloo Region reported 20 new cases for today (16.3% of the active cases) -- but with two additional cases for yesterday (now 12 cases total, 10.1% of actives).  107 new cases for the week (+0), averaging 11.6% of active cases. 123 active cases (-38 in the last seven days).

Next testing report on Tuesday.

Ontario reported 809 new cases today with a seven-day average of 694 (+22), another new high. 700 recoveries and seven deaths translated to an increase of 102 active cases, and a current total of 5,754. A weekly total change of +379 active cases (net). The rise in active cases has abated somewhat but the daily number of new cases is still high. 44,298 tests for a 1.83% positivity rate. The positivity rate is averaging 1.61% for the past seven days.

ICU patient count was up to 48 (+1).

• 358 cases in Toronto: 5.9 per 100K population
  
• 123 cases in Peel: 12.5 per 100K
  
• 94 cases in Ottawa: 9.4 per 100K
  
• 76 cases in York: 6.8 per 100K
  
• 32 cases in Halton: 5.3 per 100K
  
• 24 cases in Hamilton: 4.2 per 100K
  
• 25 cases in Durham: 4.0 per 100K
  
• 18 cases in Waterloo: 2.0 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  

[tomh009]

SUNDAY 2020-10-11

Waterloo Region reported only five new cases for today (7.0% of the active cases) -- and adjusted yesterday's cases down by three (now 17 cases total, 14.2% of actives).  97 new cases for the week (-10), averaging 10.8% of active cases. 115 active cases (-22 in the last seven days).

Next testing report on Tuesday.

Ontario reported 649 new cases today with a seven-day average of 706 (+12), yet another new high. 705 recoveries and one death translated to an decrease of 57 active cases, and a current total of 5,697. A weekly total change of +292 active cases). 44,138 tests for a 1.47% positivity rate. The positivity rate is averaging 1.61% for the past seven days.

ICU patient count was up to 51 (+3).

• 140 cases in Toronto: 4.1 per 100K population
  
• 157 cases in Peel: 15.7 per 100K
  
• 87 cases in York: 7.8 per 100K
  
• 54 cases in Ottawa: 5.4 per 100K
  
• 49 cases in Halton: 8.0 per 100K
  
• 35 cases in Hamilton: 6.2 per 100K
  
• 29 cases in Durham: 4.6 per 100K
  
• 15 cases in Waterloo: 2.3 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  

[tomh009]

MONDAY 2020-10-12

Waterloo Region reported nine new cases for today (8.2% of the active cases) -- and no additional cases for yesterday (now eight cases total, 7.0% of actives).  91 new cases for the week (-4), averaging 10.3% of active cases. 110 active cases (-25 in the last seven days).

Active cases are back down to the level of three weeks ago, and we have only seen four days of 20+ cases (19, 20, 22 September plus 02 October). Early signs don't show any spike from Oktoberfest. And we are not seeing the GTA infections spreading here, at least not yet. So, kudos to the people of the region for behaving themselves -- but we really need our neighbours to the east to get things under control, too.

Next testing report on Tuesday.

Ontario report will not be available until Tuesday due to the thanksgiving holiday.

[danbrotherston]

MONDAY 2020-10-12

Waterloo Region reported nine new cases for today (8.2% of the active cases) -- and no additional cases for yesterday (now eight cases total, 7.0% of actives).  91 new cases for the week (-4), averaging 10.3% of active cases. 110 active cases (-25 in the last seven days).

Active cases are back down to the level of three weeks ago, and we have only seen four days of 20+ cases (19, 20, 22 September plus 02 October). Early signs don't show any spike from Oktoberfest. And we are not seeing the GTA infections spreading here, at least not yet. So, kudos to the people of the region for behaving themselves -- but we really need our neighbours to the east to get things under control, too.

Next testing report on Tuesday.

Ontario report will not be available until Tuesday due to the thanksgiving holiday.

Given our testing backlog is what, 3-4 days and the delay after infection is like 5-10 days? Seems a bit early to make this determination.  Things only shut down last week in the GTA.

We are definitely looking better than we were a few weeks ago though, but still not to the level we saw in the summer.

[tomh009]

Given our testing backlog is what, 3-4 days and the delay after infection is like 5-10 days? Seems a bit early to make this determination.  Things only shut down last week in the GTA.

We are definitely looking better than we were a few weeks ago though, but still not to the level we saw in the summer.

The provincial backlog for processing the tests is about 1.25 days -- is Waterloo Region worse than that? I thought our tests were being processed in te GTA.

The median delay from infection to symptoms is about five days. A small percentage are much longer than that, but then there are others that are much quicker. If there were a spike from Oktoberfest, we should have seen at least half of that by now.

[danbrotherston]

Given our testing backlog is what, 3-4 days and the delay after infection is like 5-10 days? Seems a bit early to make this determination.  Things only shut down last week in the GTA.

We are definitely looking better than we were a few weeks ago though, but still not to the level we saw in the summer.

The provincial backlog for processing the tests is about 1.25 days -- is Waterloo Region worse than that? I thought our tests were being processed in te GTA.

The median delay from infection to symptoms is about five days. A small percentage are much longer than that, but then there are others that are much quicker. If there were a spike from Oktoberfest, we should have seen at least half of that by now.

I did reply explicitly to the GTA comment, I agree about Octoberfest.

As for backlog, my data could be out of date, was I not seeing 80k tests pending at one point (2-3 days at current testing rates)?

[tomh009]

As for backlog, my data could be out of date, was I not seeing 80k tests pending at one point (2-3 days at current testing rates)?

The last Ontario report said 44,138 tests completed, 45,837 in process so they seem to have caught up. Apparently they are buying some test processing capacity in the US now.

[danbrotherston]

As for backlog, my data could be out of date, was I not seeing 80k tests pending at one point (2-3 days at current testing rates)?

The last Ontario report said 44,138 tests completed, 45,837 in process so they seem to have caught up. Apparently they are buying some test processing capacity in the US now.

Ha!

Well, it's good they're getting the testing done.

Whether it is a good idea for us to be outsourcing our testing...especially to the US...and why in the world the US of all places has excess testing capacity in the first place...is a discussion for another time.

In any case, I stand corrected, the testing backlog is much lower, but I still don't think we've seen the real impact of the GTA's shutdown yet.

[tomh009]

...and why in the world the US of all places has excess testing capacity in the first place...is a discussion for another time.

I think the important thing to distinguish here is the test collection capacity and the test processing capacity. For the latter, we are able to outsource, and apparently at least someone in the US has spare processing capacity.

The collection capacity constraint really is a bigger challenge for us, I think, and it's what drives the long lines and lack of available reservations at the testing centres.

[tomh009]

TUESDAY 2020-10-13

Waterloo Region reported 14 new cases for today (11.0% of the active cases) -- and seven additional cases for yesterday (now 14cases total, 12.2% of actives).  92 new cases for the week (+1), averaging 10.6% of active cases. 127 active cases (-9 in the last seven days).

An average of 1,708 tests per day for the last seven days, with an average positivity rate of 0.79%.

Ontario reported 746 new cases today with a seven-day average of 761 (+55 in two days), yet another new high. 624 recoveries and one death translated to an increase of 113 active cases, and a current total of 5,946. A weekly total change of +477 active cases). 31,233 tests for a rather high 2.39% positivity rate. The positivity rate is averaging 1.85% for the past seven days.

ICU patient count was up to 60 (+9 in two days).

• 311 cases in Toronto: 10.7 per 100K population
  
• 135 cases in Peel: 13.5 per 100K
  
• 116 cases in Ottawa: 11.6 per 100K
  
• 42 cases in York: 3.9 per 100K
  
• 29 cases in Halton: 5.5 per 100K
  
• 15 cases in Waterloo: 2.3 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  

[tomh009]

WEDNESDAY 2020-10-14

Waterloo Region reported 11 new cases for today (8.7% of the active cases) -- and 10 additional cases for yesterday (now 24 cases total, 17.6% of actives).  97 new cases for the week (+5), averaging 11.2% of active cases. 126 active cases (-14 in the last seven days).

Next testing report on Friday.

Ontario reported 721 new cases today with a seven-day average of 781 (+20), yet another new high. 783 recoveries and no deaths translated to an drop of 62 active cases, and a current total of 5,884. A weekly total change of +540 active cases). 32,206 tests for a 2.24% positivity rate. The positivity rate is averaging 1.98% for the past seven days.

ICU patient count was up to 64 (+4) while the total hospital population was up to 231, similar to late June.

• 270 cases in Toronto: 9.0 per 100K population
  
• 170 cases in Peel: 17.0 per 100K
  
• 79 cases in York: 7.2 per 100K
  
• 39 cases in Ottawa: 3.9 per 100K
  
• 23 cases in Waterloo: 3.4 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 22 cases in Durham: 3.4 per 100K
  
• 21 cases in Halton: 3.5 per 100K
  

[tomh009]

THURSDAY 2020-10-15

Waterloo Region reported seven new cases for today (7.1% of the active cases) -- and one additional case for yesterday (now 12 cases total, 9.4% of actives).  94 new cases for the week (-3), averaging 11.1% of active cases. 98 active cases (-34 in the last seven days).

Next testing report on Friday.

Ontario reported 783 new cases today with a seven-day average of 779 (-2). 779 recoveries and five deaths translated to an drop of one active case, and a current total of 5,883. A weekly total change of +441 active cases. 39,961 tests for a 1.96% positivity rate. The positivity rate is averaging 2.03% for the past seven days -- the first time this has exceeded 2% in four months.

ICU patient count was down to 62 (+2) but the total hospital population jumped up to 253 (+22).

• 239 cases in Toronto: 8.1 per 100K population
  
• 136 cases in Peel: 13.6 per 100K
  
• 127 cases in York: 11.4 per 100K
  
• 89 cases in Ottawa: 3.9 per 100K
  
• 40 cases in Durham: 6.2 per 100K
  
• 28 cases in Halton: 4.6 per 100K
  
• 23 cases in Eastern Ontario
  
• 13 cases in Waterloo: 2.0 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  

[Bjays93]

I'm sure it's been said already, but thanks for compiling all this info everyday tom. It is greatly appreciated!

[tomh009]

FRIDAY 2020-10-16

Waterloo Region reported 10 new cases for today (9.8% of the active cases) -- and three additional cases for yesterday (now 10 cases total, 10.0% of actives).  94 new cases for the week (+0), averaging 11.3% of active cases. 102 active cases (-17 in the last seven days).

An average of 1,407 tests per day for the last week with an average positivity of 1.15%.

Ontario reported 712 new cases today with a seven-day average of 747 (-32). 713 recoveries and nine deaths translated to an drop of 10 active casea, and a current total of 5,873. A weekly total change of +221 active cases. 38,507 tests for a 1.85% positivity rate. The positivity rate is averaging 1.99% for the past seven days.

ICU patient count was up to 67 (+5) and the total hospital population was up to 261 (+8).

• 213 cases in Toronto: 7.4 per 100K population
  
• 135 cases in Peel: 13.5 per 100K
  
• 108 cases in Ottawa: 10.8 per 100K
  
• 62 cases in York: 5.5 per 100K
  
• 27 cases in Durham: 4.2 per 100K
  
• 46 cases in Halton: 7.5 per 100K
  
• 12 cases in Waterloo: 1.9 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)