The COVID-19 pandemic

[jeffster]

I’m thinking that a toilet paper run this week might not be a bad idea ...

Yeah, that's not a bad idea. I'm going after work tomorrow.

[Acitta]

I bought a bidet attachement in February and use very little TP. I recommend it.

[tomh009]

On the heels of Pfizer's vaccine announcement last week (developed jointly with BioNTeh), this week Moderna announced that the preliminary results for their vaccine show 94.5% efficacy, somewhat higher than Pfizer's 90%. However, both are fairly small sample sizes, each with fewer than 100 infections, so the difference may well be within the margin of error.

The positive, though, is the consistency of the results from two independent tests for two different vaccines. This is significant because both are mRNA vaccines, made with synthetic messenger RNA (which directs the body's protein production) so they really should have fairly consistent efficacy. The biggest practical difference between the two is the storage requirement: Pfizer's vaccine must be stored at -70C or colder, whereas Moderna's can handle six months at the more common -20C temperature, and one week in a refrigerator.

We will need more than one company, so the two should complement each other. But, realistically, both of these, as well as any of the other candidates, are not going to be available for mass vaccinations until 4-6 months from now, so we need to manage the current situation until then.

[dtkmelissa]

On the heels of Pfizer's vaccine announcement last week (developed jointly with BioNTeh), this week Moderna announced that the preliminary results for their vaccine show 94.5% efficacy, somewhat higher than Pfizer's 90%. However, both are fairly small sample sizes, each with fewer than 100 infections, so the difference may well be within the margin of error.

The positive, though, is the consistency of the results from two independent tests for two different vaccines. This is significant because both are mRNA vaccines, made with synthetic messenger RNA (which directs the body's protein production) so they really should have fairly consistent efficacy. The biggest practical difference between the two is the storage requirement: Pfizer's vaccine must be stored at -70C or colder, whereas Moderna's can handle six months at the more common -20C temperature, and one week in a refrigerator.

We will need more than one company, so the two should complement each other. But, realistically, both of these, as well as any of the other candidates, are not going to be available for mass vaccinations until 4-6 months from now, so we need to manage the current situation until then.

On that topic of mRNA vaccines, and not being anything close to an expert on the topic, I found this (11 minute) video quite informative on the topic. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aILLJOa1...e=youtu.be

[ac3r]

But maybe I need to do another LCBO run this week?

Ugh, I forgot about the Friday afternoon LCBO lines in particular. Not looking forward to standing out in a line for 15 minutes in the middle of winter - summer was already annoying enough haha.

Gimme that vaccine, Pfizer.

[tomh009]

On that topic of mRNA vaccines, and not being anything close to an expert on the topic, I found this (11 minute) video quite informative on the topic. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aILLJOa13CA&feature=youtu.be

Thanks! She does a great job of explaining RNA in general and mRNA vaccines in particular.

If you are interested in some more reading, here is an interesting history of how this is possible today:
https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/10/the-...cine-race/

[KevinL]

The Moderna vaccine is stable at higher temperatures as well (the Pfizer needs -45C, this one only -20) so distribution on that, especially outside large centres where specialty freezers are less common, should be easier.

[tomh009]

MONDAY 2020-11-16

Waterloo Region reported 53 new cases for today (14.7% of the active cases).  363 new cases for the week (+14), averaging 18.9% of active cases. 357 active cases (+143 in the last seven days).

Next testing report on Tuesday, but the region's dashboard indicates an average positivity of 3.6% for the past week.

Ontario reported 1,487 new cases today -- not a record but still the third-highest daily total to date -- with a seven-day average of 1,449 (+35). 992 recoveries and 10 deaths translated to an increase of 485 active cases, and a current total of 12,870. +3,356 active cases for the week, and 126 deaths. 33,351 tests resulted in a 4.46% positivity rate. The positivity rate is averaging 3.87% for the past seven days.

ICU bed count is up to 125 (+7).

• 508 cases in Toronto: 17.6 per 100K population
  
• 392 cases in Peel: 26.0 per 100K
  
• 170 cases in York: 15.5 per 100K
  
• 51 cases in Ottawa: 5.1 per 100K
  
• 46 cases in Halton: 8.3 per 100K
  
• 45 cases in Durham: 6.6 per 100K
  
• 35 cases in Hamilton: 7.1 per 100K
  
• 35 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka
  
• 19 cases in Niagara: 3.8 per 100K
  
• 67 cases in Waterloo: 10.3 per 100K (based on provincial reporting, one day behind the region)[/color]
  

GTA is back up to new 1157 cases.

[panamaniac]

Ottawa seems to have plateaued, at least for now.

[ac3r]

Why Moderna’s COVID-19 vaccine results represent more good news for Canada: https://outline.com/fBUvbK

[tomh009]

Why Moderna’s COVID-19 vaccine results represent more good news for Canada: https://outline.com/fBUvbK

A couple of nits to pick with this article:

"Both Pfizer and Moderna are using a new technology that relies on mRNA to make their vaccines. Their doses include a tiny recipe for spike protein DNA (...)". Protein's don't have DNA. The mRNA is the recipe to make the proteins.

And the Moderna vaccina requires refrigeration to only -20C (the BioNTech/Pfizer requires -70C).

[jamincan]

-70C seems pretty extreme for most facilities. Would they just store it on dry ice or something?

[tomh009]

-70C seems pretty extreme for most facilities. Would they just store it on dry ice or something?

That's basically what you need to do. This is fairly manageable for urban hospitals but becomes very challenging for smaller rural hospitals -- and especially so remote areas (such as our territories) or for developing countries.

One strategy we may end up with is the use of BioNTech/Pfizer at the big urban hospitals with Moderna used in most other locations. Lots of logistics work remains to be planned, regardless of which vaccine is used!

[danbrotherston]

-70C seems pretty extreme for most facilities. Would they just store it on dry ice or something?

That's basically what you need to do. This is fairly manageable for urban hospitals but becomes very challenging for smaller rural hospitals -- and especially so remote areas (such as our territories) or for developing countries.

One strategy we may end up with is the use of BioNTech/Pfizer at the big urban hospitals with Moderna used in most other locations. Lots of logistics work remains to be planned, regardless of which vaccine is used!

Urban hospitals (like ours) will generally have the refrigeration equipment to maintain -70C. This is not the first medication with this particular storage requirement. Pfizer has developed a dry ice based storage box for smaller facilites which lack a -70C capable refrigeration facility, but there are pretty substantial limitations as described here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=byW1GExQ...roductions

[panamaniac]

I agree casinos, Dollarama, bars, etc. are not anywhere close to being essential, so we could be shutting down better than we are, but a true lockdown would be impossible.

Many lower-income people use Dollarama for their daily groceries so I think that would be essential. Unless we were to provide some kind of food delivery service to those people.

But maybe I need to do another LCBO run this week?

Ugh, I forgot about the Friday afternoon LCBO lines in particular. Not looking forward to standing out in a line for 15 minutes in the middle of winter - summer was already annoying enough haha.

Gimme that vaccine, Pfizer.

 Every time I see a line-up at the LCBO or the Beer Store, the die-hard Presbyterian in me judges harshly.  It would be a frosty Friday before I’d allow myself to be seen lining up for booze, although I understand (all too well...) that many have no choice.  That said, those line-ups are going to be one of my main memories of the pandemic, along with empty supermarket shelves and people wearing their face masks with their nose uncovered.