The COVID-19 pandemic

[jeffster]

ROW reporting 71 cases, 62 for today and 9 added to previous days.

We might be slowly headed in the right direction. I hope.

[ac3r]

I've heard from some staff I know who work at GRH that we may likely be declared a grey zone in the coming week.

[tomh009]

THURSDAY 2020-12-03

Waterloo Region reported 64 new cases for today (11.1% of the active cases).  520 new cases for the week (+2), averaging 14.2% of active cases. 570 active cases (+120 in the last seven days).

Next testing report on Friday.

Ontario reported 1,824 new cases today with a seven-day average of 1,769 (+49). 1,541 recoveries and 14 deaths translated to an increase of 269 active cases, and a current total of 14,795. +1,924 active cases for the week and 137 deaths. 52,873 tests resulted in a 3.45% positivity rate. The positivity rate is averaging 3.77% for the past seven days, as compared to 3.51% for the preceding seven.

195 patients in ICU (+12) and 666 in hospital overall (+110 in the past seven days).

• 592 cases in Peel: 42.8 per 100K
  
• 127 cases in Middlesex-London: 31.4 per 100K
  
• 187 cases in York: 16.8 per 100K
  
• 62 cases in Windsor-Essex: 15.9 per 100K
  
• 87 cases in Waterloo: 14.1 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 396 cases in Toronto: 13.5 per 100K
  
• 68 cases in Halton: 12.4 per 100K
  
• 56 cases in Hamilton: 9.7 per 100K
  
• 57 cases in Durham: 8.8 per 100K
  
• 23 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 8.5 per 100K
  
• 25 cases in Niagara: 5.6 per 100K
  
• 41 cases in Ottawa: 4.1 per 100K
  
• 11 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 2.0 per 100K
  

London's 127 cases includes those from the past two days and explains why they were at zero (or below) on those days.

[tomh009]

I've heard from some staff I know who work at GRH that we may likely be declared a grey zone in the coming week.

Dr Wang (regional health officer) thinks not yet.

However, neither hospital staff or Dr Wang actually know given that there are no hard criteria and the decision is made by the province.

[jeffster]

I've heard from some staff I know who work at GRH that we may likely be declared a grey zone in the coming week.

Dr Wang (regional health officer) thinks not yet.

However, neither hospital staff or Dr Wang actually know given that there are no hard criteria and the decision is made by the province.

Dr. Wang is asking for federal and provincial help to help out more with virus control to avoid going into the lockdown. And I am really hoping we can avoid lockdown. Really we need to be able to get through the next 10-12 week or so, and by then, hopefully front-line medical workers, and high risk individuals, will have had their 2nd vaccination and we can start getting back to normal maybe by April, as in, drop to code orange or better.

I think too, once President-Elect Biden in inaugurated on January 20, he's setting up some rules for the population to follow until enough people are vaccinated. This includes wearing masks for 100 days (so until April 30). Hopefully at that time, our Federal government will finally come to terms and make some universal rules.

[plam]

Dr. Wang is asking for federal and provincial help to help out more with virus control to avoid going into the lockdown. And I am really hoping we can avoid lockdown. Really we need to be able to get through the next 10-12 week or so, and by then, hopefully front-line medical workers, and high risk individuals, will have had their 2nd vaccination and we can start getting back to normal maybe by April, as in, drop to code orange or better.

I think too, once President-Elect Biden in inaugurated on January 20, he's setting up some rules for the population to follow until enough people are vaccinated. This includes wearing masks for 100 days (so until April 30). Hopefully at that time, our Federal government will finally come to terms and make some universal rules.

Next summer should generally be better if we can keep the numbers from exploding too much until then.

I've usually said that I rate Canada's response as a D-. I was just talking to a NZer who lives in the US and is back in NZ for a few weeks. I realized that Canada's per-capita death rate is about half of the US's. (Specifically, 1/2.5th). Which is, well, less than half, but a lot higher than it should be.

I haven't thought too much about the interval between, say, January and September-Octoberish, where I expect enough vaccines to have been dispensed. (If you think about just the vaccination process, it is a lot of vaccines that are going to need to be injected!) But even after the health care workers are protected, it just means that we keep health care capacity at what it is now, minus burnout; it doesn't have a significant effect on the number of people who would otherwise get it.

[tomh009]

I've usually said that I rate Canada's response as a D-. I was just talking to a NZer who lives in the US and is back in NZ for a few weeks. I realized that Canada's per-capita death rate is about half of the US's. (Specifically, 1/2.5th). Which is, well, less than half, but a lot higher than it should be.

It's all about long-term care. All the developed countries with high death rates got hit in a big way in long-term care facilities. Some of the top countries, deaths per million:

• Belgium 1,467
  
• Spain 985
  
• Italy 961
  
• UK 884
  
• USA 853
  
• France 829
  
• Sweden 698
  
• Switzerland 604
  
• Netherlands 561
  
• Austria 404
  
• Canada 328
  
• Germany 219
  
• Denmark 149
  
• Finland 74
  
• Norway 65
  
• Australia 35
  
• Japan 18
  
• South Korea 10
  
• New Zealand 5
  
• Taiwan 0.3
  

I don't think it's realistic to compare ourselves to the Asia-Pacific countries, for multiple reasons. But, like the European countries, we imported a lot of cases early on due to travel, the age structure is similar, and the political/cultural environment is fairly similar. There, most of the Nordic countries (bar Sweden) have done well as has Germany. But Canada's death rate is significantly lower than most of the others. So, if we get a D-, a whole lot of countries get an F. And maybe only Taiwan gets an A.

I haven't thought too much about the interval between, say, January and September-Octoberish, where I expect enough vaccines to have been dispensed. (If you think about just the vaccination process, it is a lot of vaccines that are going to need to be injected!) But even after the health care workers are protected, it just means that we keep health care capacity at what it is now, minus burnout; it doesn't have a significant effect on the number of people who would otherwise get it.

As soon as we start getting people vaccinated, the number of potential virus carriers starts dropping, bring down the R values. It won't be a big number at first, but every vaccination makes a difference, regardless who it is.

[danbrotherston]

I've usually said that I rate Canada's response as a D-. I was just talking to a NZer who lives in the US and is back in NZ for a few weeks. I realized that Canada's per-capita death rate is about half of the US's. (Specifically, 1/2.5th). Which is, well, less than half, but a lot higher than it should be.

It's all about long-term care. All the developed countries with high death rates got hit in a big way in long-term care facilities. Some of the top countries, deaths per million:

• Belgium 1,467
  
• Spain 985
  
• Italy 961
  
• UK 884
  
• USA 853
  
• France 829
  
• Sweden 698
  
• Switzerland 604
  
• Netherlands 561
  
• Austria 404
  
• Canada 328
  
• Germany 219
  
• Denmark 149
  
• Finland 74
  
• Norway 65
  
• Australia 35
  
• Japan 18
  
• South Korea 10
  
• New Zealand 5
  
• Taiwan 0.3
  

I don't think it's realistic to compare ourselves to the Asia-Pacific countries, for multiple reasons. But, like the European countries, we imported a lot of cases early on due to travel, the age structure is similar, and the political/cultural environment is fairly similar. There, most of the Nordic countries (bar Sweden) have done well as has Germany. But Canada's death rate is significantly lower than most of the others. So, if we get a D-, a whole lot of countries get an F. And maybe only Taiwan gets an A.

I haven't thought too much about the interval between, say, January and September-Octoberish, where I expect enough vaccines to have been dispensed. (If you think about just the vaccination process, it is a lot of vaccines that are going to need to be injected!) But even after the health care workers are protected, it just means that we keep health care capacity at what it is now, minus burnout; it doesn't have a significant effect on the number of people who would otherwise get it.

As soon as we start getting people vaccinated, the number of potential virus carriers starts dropping, bring down the R values. It won't be a big number at first, but every vaccination makes a difference, regardless who it is.

Yes...yes they do.

Much like we are failing at climate change, many are failing at this pandemic.

I mean, we could quibble over points, D+/D- there's wiggle room, but ultimately, this pandemic is a pretty serious indictment of the latest right wing governments and their supporters.

Honestly, in March, I was more hopeful, now I am far less hopeful, and I don't just mean about the pandemic. If we can't even solve a crisis that we know how to solve, where we literally watched bodies pile up inside of freezer trucks, what chance do we have at stopping something as abstract as climate change.

[tomh009]

I mean, we could quibble over points, D+/D- there's wiggle room, but ultimately, this pandemic is a pretty serious indictment of the latest right wing governments and their supporters.

Alas, the challenges in managing the pandemic were by no means limited to right-wing governments. Yes, Trump and Bolsonaro did spectacularly badly, but there is a solid mix of different political stripes in the top half of the list.

[danbrotherston]

I mean, we could quibble over points, D+/D- there's wiggle room, but ultimately, this pandemic is a pretty serious indictment of the latest right wing governments and their supporters.

Alas, the challenges in managing the pandemic were by no means limited to right-wing governments. Yes, Trump and Bolsonaro did spectacularly badly, but there is a solid mix of different political stripes in the top half of the list.

Calling out right wing extremist governments is not an endorsement of centrist liberals, but it is very clear that right wing governments are especially ill suited to dealing with problems...I suspect because they have a greater than normal detachment from reality.

[tomh009]

FRIDAY 2020-12-04

Waterloo Region reported 58 new cases for today (10.0% of the active cases).  508 new cases for the week (-12), averaging 13.3% of active cases. 636 active cases (+120 in the last seven days).

An average of 12,247 tests over the past week for an average positivity rate of 4.15%, down from 4.71% the prior week.

Ontario reported 1,780 new cases today with a seven-day average of 1,759 (-10). 1,553 recoveries and 25 deaths translated to an increase of 202 active cases, and a current total of 14,997. +1,724 active cases for the week and 142 deaths. 56,001 tests resulted in a 3.18% positivity rate. The positivity rate is averaging 3.77% for the past seven days, as compared to 3.54% for the preceding seven.

The seven-day case average having stabilized in the 1700s is encouraging, and the positivity rate is better, too. Maybe, maybe, maybe ...

207 patients in ICU (+12) and 674 in hospital overall (+133 in the past seven days).

• 433 cases in Peel: 31.3 per 100K
  
• 633 cases in Toronto: 21.6 per 100K
  
• 68 cases in Windsor-Essex: 17.5 per 100K
  
• 94 cases in Durham: 14.6 per 100K
  
• 152 cases in York: 13.7 per 100K
  
• 39 cases in Middlesex-London: 9.6 per 100K
  
• 51 cases in Halton: 9.3 per 100K
  
• 25 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 9.2 per 100K
  
• 41 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 7.6 per 100K
  
• 43 cases in Hamilton: 7.4 per 100K
  
• 40 cases in Waterloo: 6.5 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 21 cases in Niagara: 4.7 per 100K
  
• 36 cases in Ottawa: 3.6 per 100K
  

Peel somewhat better today, but Toronto, too, is over 20 cases/100K. (And I can't make heads or tails about the mismatch between Waterloo regional and provincial numbers. I'll continue to use the provincial numbers for this table in order to be consistent with the other regions but otherwise I'll rely on the region's own reporting.)

[jeffster]

I mean, we could quibble over points, D+/D- there's wiggle room, but ultimately, this pandemic is a pretty serious indictment of the latest right wing governments and their supporters.

That's the silliest thing I have read. It has zero bearing on it, other than what's happening in the USA, and Trump is an outlier.
New Brunswick and PEI, have 2 of the 3 lowest rates of covid-19 in Canada and they're both Conservative. British Columbia, which is considered far left of centre is higher than Ontario. Political strip, no bearing (these are current 7 day average).

Regardless of that, we have a federal government that IS very Liberal, and being propped up be an even further to the left NDP, they could control it more if they wanted to.

When people look at the US, they DO blame Trump for the high covid-19 numbers, as they should, as he's an idiot. Yet if Canadians are going to blame Trump for his inactions, we should hold Trudeau to the same level of accountability.

Aside from Alberta and maybe Quebec, I think the provincial governments have done all they could. There really is no winning here.

And to add, high covid-19 numbers in Ontario are coming from *Liberal* electoral districts, not Conservative. Toronto is the perfect example.

[danbrotherston]

I mean, we could quibble over points, D+/D- there's wiggle room, but ultimately, this pandemic is a pretty serious indictment of the latest right wing governments and their supporters.

That's the silliest thing I have read. It has zero bearing on it, other than what's happening in the USA, and Trump is an outlier.
New Brunswick and PEI, have 2 of the 3 lowest rates of covid-19 in Canada and they're both Conservative. British Columbia, which is considered far left of centre is higher than Ontario. Political strip, no bearing (these are current 7 day average).

Regardless of that, we have a federal government that IS very Liberal, and being propped up be an even further to the left NDP, they could control it more if they wanted to.

When people look at the US, they DO blame Trump for the high covid-19 numbers, as they should, as he's an idiot. Yet if Canadians are going to blame Trump for his inactions, we should hold Trudeau to the same level of accountability.

Aside from Alberta and maybe Quebec, I think the provincial governments have done all they could.  There really is no winning here.

And to add, high covid-19 numbers in Ontario are coming from *Liberal* electoral districts, not Conservative. Toronto is the perfect example.

Trump is not an outlier, you have a strong trend, Johnson, Bolsinaro, there are other examples.

These latest right wing extremists governments have nothing to do with historic progressive conservative values.  And it has little to do with the excessively simplified "left/right, liberal/conservative" dichotimy.

As for Toronto, it is plenty conservative. They elected John Tory repeatedly. Just because someone calls themselves a liberal doesn't mean they aren't conservative.

[tomh009]

Regardless of that, we have a federal government that IS very Liberal, and being propped up be an even further to the left NDP, they could control it more if they wanted to.

The federal government, regardless of the party in office, really has very little power when it comes to healthcare, as that is constitutionally a provincial item. The feds can manage drug testing and certification, and they can distribute vaccines to the provinces, or help if the provinces ask for help.

But doing things within the provinces? Only if they invoke the Emergencies Act. And you can bet half (or more) of the provincial governments would immediately decry the move as violation of their provincial rights. It's really a no-win situation, I would not expect any federal government to do it unless the situation were really, really dire and very much out of control.

[ac3r]

1'859 cases in Ontario today.

CBC has a breakdown of the types of transmission taking place here in Waterloo Region. The majority is close contact transmission, followed by outbreaks, community transmission and travel: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/kitchener...-1.5519675