The COVID-19 pandemic

[tomh009]

With relatively small tweaks this would have been much better.

• No exemptions for big box stores
  
• Require employers to provide additional sick leave for positive cases and exposures to ensure people don't come to work sick
  
• Start the shutdown immediately
  

[ijmorlan]

"Better than nothing" does not really meet my expectations of our elected officials.  I will remember this at the next election.

Unfortunately too many people remember the wrong things, and on the wrong time scale.

When the notion of electing an NDP government comes up, many immediately say “Rae!” which, regardless of ones more detailed opinions about political topics, is way out of time and ignores the fact that the Rae government was not notably worse than any typical Ontario government (by any reasoned assessment that I’ve seen).

From the same people, the main objection to the Liberals in Ontario seems to be that Kathleen Wynne is (supposedly) unattractive.

The only reason to continue allowing such people to vote is that it isn’t practical to exclude them.

[tomh009]

So, the shutdown is definitely not a lockdown, and leaves much to be desired.

However, it's possible that it's still enough. The new case rate have been pretty stable at around 12.1% of active cases since September (9.5% in August and 8.5% in July!). If the shutdown manages to reduce that by just 20%, to about 9.7%, it will reverse the growth in the new case numbers. My rough modeling (I do have a lot of data by now ...) says that we could get the new-case rate down to around 1,200 by the end of the four weeks, and the active cases down below 5,000.


If I continue with the optimistic assumptions and assume that the infection rate will only come back up to 11% after the shutdown finishes, we can still get below 1,000 -- and stay there -- in February. And keep the ICU population below 150.

But the key assumption here, as with everyone's models, is the infection rate, and whether we can really manage to infect 20% fewer people than we are doing today.

[plam]

There is a question of whether governments should be pursuing suppression or elimination strategies.

People here in NZ are quite happy with the elimination strategy (and before people say "but it's an island" we also have Atlantic Canada and Taiwan). On the other hand the vaccine is coming and suppression may be enough to avoid more mass carnage until then.

Economically I think elimination may well be a better choice. Economy's doing great here, people are talking about house prices instead of covid problems. (The house prices may be worse than SF on much lower salaries. On the other hand maybe Waterloo house prices are out of control for Waterloo, though certainly nowhere near SF.)

[tomh009]

WEDNESDAY 2020-12-23

Waterloo Region reported 90 new cases for today (15.0% of the active cases).  615 new cases for the week (+7), averaging 16.1% of active cases. 614 active cases, +128 in the last seven days.

Next testing report on Friday (assuming they will report on the 25th).

Ontario reported 2,408 new cases today, with a seven-day average of 2,304 (+38). 2,243 recoveries and 41 deaths translated to an increase of 124 active cases, and a current total of 19,424. +2,340 active cases for the week and 194 deaths. 56,660 tests resulted in a 4.25% positivity rate. The positivity rate is averaging 3.91% for the past seven days, as compared to 3.63% for the preceding seven.

275 patients in ICU (+2) and a total hospital population of 1,002 (+70 in the past seven days).

• 234 cases in Windsor-Essex: 60.2 per 100K
  
• 448 cases in Peel: 32.4 per 100K
  
• 53 cases in Southwestern: 26.5 per 100K
  
• 150 cases in Hamilton: 25.9 per 100K
  
• 629 cases in Toronto: 21.5 per 100K
  
• 136 cases in Durham: 21.1 per 100K
  
• 72 cases in Middlesex-London: 17.8 per 100K
  
• 190 cases in York: 17.1 per 100K
  
• 76 cases in Niagara: 17.0 per 100K
  
• 88 cases in Halton: 16.0 per 100K
  
• 80 cases in Waterloo: 12.9 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 18 cases in Thunder Bay: 12.0 per 100K
  
• 31 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 11.4 per 100K
  
• 11 cases in Huron Perth: 11.2 per 100K
  
• 14 cases in Brant County: 10.3 per 100K
  
• 46 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 8.5 per 100K
  
• 56 cases in Ottawa: 5.6 per 100K
  
• 9 cases in Eastern Ontario: 4.4 per 100K
  
• 6 cases in Kingston Frontenac: 2.9 per 100K
  

[ac3r]

New U.K. strain of COVID-19 could already be in Canada, says Dr. Anthony Fauci: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/fauci-uk-...-1.5852377

Health Canada approves 'game-changer' Moderna COVID-19 vaccine: https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronaviru...-1.5242821

[tomh009]

New U.K. strain of COVID-19 could already be in Canada, says Dr. Anthony Fauci: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/fauci-uk-...-1.5852377

One small correction: it's a new variant, not a new strain (and, yes, it's CBC's mistake). SARS-CoV-2 is a strain, as is SARS-CoV (the original SARS virus). What we're dealing with here is a variant, caused by some mutations.

Sadly, I expect that most of the media will continue to confuse the two terms.

[danbrotherston]

New U.K. strain of COVID-19 could already be in Canada, says Dr. Anthony Fauci: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/fauci-uk-...-1.5852377

One small correction: it's a new variant, not a new strain (and, yes, it's CBC's mistake). SARS-CoV-2 is a strain, as is SARS-CoV (the original SARS virus). What we're dealing with here is a variant, caused by some mutations.

Sadly, I expect that most of the media will continue to confuse the two terms.

I don't think confusing the two terms matters much. People (including myself) don't really understand the technical difference between those two things, nor do I really understand the implications. So using the right term would not be helpful in understanding what this means.

What DOES matter is that the implications are effectively communicated so that that people understand that this change makes the virus spread more easily, but that it is believed the vaccine will still be effective.

[tomh009]

What DOES matter is that the implications are effectively communicated so that that people understand that this change makes the virus spread more easily, but that it is believed the vaccine will still be effective.

This is, in fact, not yet established. It seems to have spread quickly in southern England, but it has also been detected in other countries where no similarly rapid spread has been observed. There are speculations about what mechanism could possibly enable faster spread, but at this time no significant evidence for those, either, yet. At this point there are hundreds (or thousands?) of scientists working on this, and we'll likely know more fairly soon. But, as of now, it's not yet confirmed.

[plam]

From the UK:

Professor Robert West, a health psychologist at the University College London, told the Guardian the nation was facing "economic, human and social disaster".

West called on the UK to reset its coronavirus strategy – something that would likely be costly, but save many lives.

"We need to reset our strategy and move rapidly to a zero (Covid-19) strategy of the kind that many have been proposing," he said.

[danbrotherston]

What DOES matter is that the implications are effectively communicated so that that people understand that this change makes the virus spread more easily, but that it is believed the vaccine will still be effective.

This is, in fact, not yet established. It seems to have spread quickly in southern England, but it has also been detected in other countries where no similarly rapid spread has been observed. There are speculations about what mechanism could possibly enable faster spread, but at this time no significant evidence for those, either, yet. At this point there are hundreds (or thousands?) of scientists working on this, and we'll likely know more fairly soon. But, as of now, it's not yet confirmed.

I mean, I read the WHO release. The preliminary report from the UK indicates a measured increase in reproduction number, I agree it is preliminary and needs more study so maybe I should have used the word "could" but that wasn't really my main point.

[tomh009]

This is, in fact, not yet established. It seems to have spread quickly in southern England, but it has also been detected in other countries where no similarly rapid spread has been observed. There are speculations about what mechanism could possibly enable faster spread, but at this time no significant evidence for those, either, yet. At this point there are hundreds (or thousands?) of scientists working on this, and we'll likely know more fairly soon. But, as of now, it's not yet confirmed.

I mean, I read the WHO release. The preliminary report from the UK indicates a measured increase in reproduction number, I agree it is preliminary and needs more study so maybe I should have used the word "could" but that wasn't really my main point.

There certainly is a strong possibility. But the wide spread of the new variant could also be the result of one super-spreader event. However, I expect we'll know more soon.

[tomh009]

10-day averages for key regions in Ontario, plus the weekly trend as of 2020-12-24 (posting this every two days).

Region	Cases today	10-day average	per 100K	Weekly trend
Windsor-Essex	173	173.1	44.5	+10%
Peel	502	475.9	33.2	-5%
Toronto	646	659.2	21.6	-18%
York	263	217.0	18.8	+20%
Hamilton	101	100.2	17.6	+8%
Niagara	93	73.2	15.8	+24%
Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph	63	43.8	15.5	+2%
Durham	92	93.7	14.1	+15%
Middlesex-London	67	60.5	13.9	+48%
Southwestern	30	28.4	13.6	+31%
Halton	55	73.3	13.1	-1%
Waterloo	83	81.6	12.8	+21%
Huron Perth	8	10.7	11.6	-31%
Brant County	16	14.2	10.8	-58%
Thunder Bay	82	17.1	10.3	+84%
Simcoe-Muskoka	38	52.9	9.2	-14%
Eastern Ontario	30	14.0	7.8	+25%
Kingston Frontenac	7	9.6	4.9	-65%
Ottawa	77	41.1	4.3	+44%

[tomh009]

THURSDAY 2020-12-24

Waterloo Region reported 90 new cases for today (15.5% of the active cases).  641 new cases for the week (+26), averaging 16.2% of active cases. 633 active cases, +147 in the last seven days.

Cambridge Country Manor LTC now has 118 active cases. 60 of 79 residents have tested positive.

Next testing report on Friday (assuming they will report on the 25th).

Ontario reported 2,447 new cases today -- another new high -- with a seven-day average of 2,306 (+2). 2,013 recoveries and 49 (!) deaths translated to an increase of 385 active cases, and a current total of 19,809. +2,325 active cases for the week and 220 deaths, more than 30 per day. 64,592 tests resulted in a 3.79% positivity rate. The positivity rate is averaging 3.86% for the past seven days, as compared to 3.77% for the preceding seven.

277 patients in ICU (+2) and a total hospital population of 967 (+48 in the past seven days).

• 173 cases in Windsor-Essex: 44.5 per 100K
  
• 502 cases in Peel: 36.3 per 100K
  
• 263 cases in York: 23.7 per 100K
  
• 63 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 23.2 per 100K
  
• 646 cases in Toronto: 22.0 per 100K
  
• 93 cases in Niagara: 20.8 per 100K
  
• 101 cases in Hamilton: 17.4 per 100K
  
• 67 cases in Middlesex-London: 16.6 per 100K
  
• 30 cases in Southwestern: 15.0 per 100K
  
• 30 cases in Eastern Ontario: 14.8 per 100K
  
• 92 cases in Durham: 14.2 per 100K
  
• 20 cases in Thunder Bay: 13.3 per 100K
  
• 82 cases in Waterloo: 13.3 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 16 cases in Brant County: 11.8 per 100K
  
• 55 cases in Halton: 10.0 per 100K
  
• 8 cases in Huron Perth: 8.2 per 100K
  
• 77 cases in Ottawa: 7.7 per 100K
  
• 38 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 7.0 per 100K
  
• 7 cases in Kingston Frontenac: 3.4 per 100K
  

[tomh009]

10-day averages for key regions in Ontario, plus the weekly trend as of 2020-12-26 (posting this every two days).

Region	Cases today	10-day average	per 100K	Weekly trend
Windsor-Essex	131	170.1	43.8	-21%
Peel	344	437.4	31.6	-4%
Toronto	541	625.8	21.4	-14%
York	262	234.3	21.1	-1%
Hamilton	136	106.9	18.5	-10%
Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph	44	48.0	17.6	-2%
Niagara	93	78.7	17.6	+16%
Middlesex-London	50	65.6	16.2	-10%
Southwestern	24	30.7	15.4	-6%
Halton	93	80.2	14.6	+1%
Durham	67	91.3	14.1	+3%
Waterloo	67	86.4	14.0	+1%
Huron Perth	28	12.6	12.9	+42%
Simcoe-Muskoka	52	53.1	9.8	-21%
Brant County	17	12.7	9.3	-40%
Eastern Ontario	18	15.4	7.6	+18%
Thunder Bay	4	10.9	7.3	+1%
Ottawa	74	51.2	5.1	+20%
Kingston Frontenac	13	9.6	4.7	-55%