The COVID-19 pandemic

[tomh009]

FRIDAY 2021-01-29

Waterloo Region reported 86 new cases today (13.7% of the active cases) and one less for yesterday for a total of 49; 489 new cases for the week (-34), averaging 9.5% of active cases! 607 active cases, -262 in the last seven days.

An average of 1,850 tests per day for the past week, for a positively pleasing positivity rate of 3.78%.

Ontario reported 1,837 new cases today with a seven-day average of 2,011 (-118). 2,900 recoveries and 58 deaths translated to a drop of 1,121 active cases and a new total of 20,357. -4,906 active cases for the week and 371 deaths (53 per day). 69,040 tests for a positivity rate of 2.66%, the lowest since early November. The positivity rate is averaging 4.10% for the past seven days, compared to 4.89% for the preceding seven.

360 patients in ICU (+2 today, -23 for the week), and 1,291 total hospital beds in use (-221 for the week).

• 83 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 30.5 per 100K
  
• 295 cases in Peel: 21.3 per 100K
  
• 595 cases in Toronto: 20.3 per 100K
  
• 24 cases in Thunder Bay: 16.0 per 100K
  
• 170 cases in York: 15.3 per 100K
  
• 91 cases in Waterloo: 14.7 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 64 cases in Niagara: 14.3 per 100K
  
• 15 cases in Chatham-Kent: 14.2 per 100K
  
• 24 cases in Southwestern Ontario: 12.0 per 100K
  
• 48 cases in Middlesex-London: 11.9 per 100K
  
• 45 cases in Windsor-Essex: 11.6 per 100K
  
• 58 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 10.7 per 100K
  
• 54 cases in Halton: 9.8 per 100K
  
• 53 cases in Hamilton: 9.2 per 100K
  
• 59 cases in Durham: 9.1 per 100K
  
• 9 cases in Lambton: 6.9 per 100K
  
• 9 cases in Brant: 6.6 per 100K
  
• 53 cases in Ottawa: 5.3 per 100K
  
• 4 cases in Huron Perth: 4.1 per 100K
  
• 8 cases in Eastern Ontario: 3.9 per 100K
  

I am quite happy to see the trend in the positivity rate (below) ...

   

[ijmorlan]

Also, new travel restrictions to be announced, including mandatory quarantine in a specific quarantine site at a travelers expense - something that we should have been doing from the start like other nations that are now living pretty normally...

It seems that there will be another PCR test on arrival, and then the mandatory stay at an approved hotel is just until the test results arrive. After that, the rest of the quarantine is at home, but with "increased surveillance" (follow-up phone calls?) and then another PCR test at day 10. This process is not immediate but will be put in place in the next few weeks or so.

What I heard on the news was as follows:

Negative test -> quarantine at home with actual follow-up
Positive test -> quarantine in government facility

I have to say that my reaction was basically “shouldn’t we have started that last March? Or even February?”.

If we had closed the border completely until we got the above set up, the virus probably wouldn’t even have entered Canada and we could have skipped this whole lockdown. And I’m really not interested in hearing any rights-based whining about this sort of border control.

[jeffster]

It seems that there will be another PCR test on arrival, and then the mandatory stay at an approved hotel is just until the test results arrive. After that, the rest of the quarantine is at home, but with "increased surveillance" (follow-up phone calls?) and then another PCR test at day 10. This process is not immediate but will be put in place in the next few weeks or so.

What I heard on the news was as follows:

Negative test -> quarantine at home with actual follow-up
Positive test -> quarantine in government facility

I have to say that my reaction was basically “shouldn’t we have started that last March? Or even February?”.

If we had closed the border completely until we got the above set up, the virus probably wouldn’t even have entered Canada and we could have skipped this whole lockdown. And I’m really not interested in hearing any rights-based whining about this sort of border control.

From the start they should have had tighter border controls. I have an acquaintance that flew down to Florida in May to visit a perspective boyfriend. I mean, they weren't even dating. She did come back and self-quarantine for those 14 days, but why allow travel in the first place?

Borders open for work related stuff only. That means truck drivers delivering goods, and those in the medical field crossing the border. Nothing more.

[tomh009]

SATURDAY 2021-01-30

Waterloo Region reported 59 new cases today (9.7% of the active cases) and none more for yesterday; 456 new cases for the week (-32), averaging 9.3% of active cases! 593 active cases, -268 in the last seven days.

Next testing report on Friday.

Ontario reported 1,833 new cases today (this is excluding 230 earlier cases from Toronto) with a seven-day average of 1,968 (-75), the average dipping back below 2,000. 2,623 recoveries and 73 deaths translated to a drop of 863 active cases and a new total of 19,724, back to pre-Christmas levels and below 20,000. -4,821 active cases for the week and 392 deaths (56 per day). 59,594 tests for a positivity rate of 3.08%. The positivity rate is averaging 4.07% for the past seven days, compared to 4.83% for the preceding seven.

353 patients in ICU (-7 today, -42 for the week), and 1,273 total hospital beds in use (-228 for the week).

• 379 cases in Peel: 27.4 per 100K
  
• 31 cases in Thunder Bay: 20.7 per 100K
  
• 79 cases in Niagara: 17.6 per 100K
  
• 483 cases in Toronto: 16.5 per 100K
  
• 178 cases in York: 16.0 per 100K
  
• 88 cases in Hamilton: 15.2 per 100K
  
• 28 cases in Eastern Ontario: 13.8 per 100K
  
• 89 cases in Durham: 13.8 per 100K
  
• 34 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 12.5 per 100K
  
• 71 cases in Waterloo: 11.5 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 41 cases in Middlesex-London: 10.1 per 100K
  
• 55 cases in Halton: 10.0 per 100K
  
• 52 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 9.6 per 100K
  
• 82 cases in Ottawa: 8.2 per 100K
  
• 32 cases in Windsor-Essex: 8.2 per 100K
  
• 10 cases in Lambton: 7.6 per 100K
  
• 7 cases in Brant: 5.1 per 100K
  
• 5 cases in Huron Perth: 5.1 per 100K
  
• 6 cases in Leeds, Grenville & Lanark: 3.5 per 100K
  
• 7 cases in Southwestern Ontario: 3.5 per 100K
  

[tomh009]

10-day averages for key regions in Ontario, plus the weekly trend as of 2021-01-31 (posting this every two days).

Region	Cases today	per 100K	10-day average	per 100K	Weekly trend
Peel	306	22.1	371	26.8	-31%
Toronto	726	24.8	686	23.4	-18%
Niagara	87	19.4	92	20.6	-11%
Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph	30	11.0	52	19.1	-46%
Windsor-Essex	53	13.6	67	17.2	-63%
York	168	15.1	188	16.9	-17%
Chatham-Kent	34	32.1	16	14.8	+58%
Thunder Bay	13	8.7	21	14.1	-51%
Hamilton	49	8.5	77	13.2	-24%
Huron Perth	15	15.3	13	13.1	-56%
Waterloo	48	7.8	75	12.1	-35%
Halton	47	8.6	63	11.5	-42%
Eastern Ontario	19	9.4	22	11.0	-24%
Durham	55	8.5	69	10.7	-6%
Middlesex-London	10	2.5	42	10.3	-50%
Simcoe-Muskoka	52	9.6	52	9.7	-26%
Southwestern Ontario	8	4.0	16	8.1	-50%
Lambton	9	6.9	10	7.9	-15%
Ottawa	55	5.5	68	6.8	-29%
Brant	5	3.7	9	6.5	-21%
Ontario total					-25%

[ac3r]

If we had closed the border completely until we got the above set up, the virus probably wouldn’t even have entered Canada and we could have skipped this whole lockdown.

While I agree we should have done more sooner, there is almost zero chance we could have prevented it coming into the country, especially living next to the biggest hot zone on the planet. Hell it even spread to Antarctica.

[danbrotherston]

If we had closed the border completely until we got the above set up, the virus probably wouldn’t even have entered Canada and we could have skipped this whole lockdown.

While I agree we should have done more sooner, there is almost zero chance we could have prevented it coming into the country, especially living next to the biggest hot zone on the planet. Hell it even spread to Antarctica.

It’s all a question of what we are willing to do. The virus moves with people, implementing controls on the movement of people does stop the virus. It is clear we are unwilling to implement the controls necessary to reach COVID zero, we are barely willing to implement controls that avert the most devastating outcomes. 

But make no mistake, there is nothing impossible here, this is a choice we have made.

[tomh009]

SUNDAY 2021-01-31

Waterloo Region reported 59 new cases again today (9.9% of the active cases) and two more for yesterday for a total of 61; 479 new cases for the week (+23), averaging 10.1% of active cases. 571 active cases, -218 in the last seven days.

Next testing report on Tuesday.

Ontario reported 1,848 new cases today with a seven-day average of 1,887 (-81). 2,313 recoveries and 43 deaths translated to a drop of 508 active cases and a new total of 19,216. -4,937 active cases for the week and 385 deaths (55 per day). 49,352 tests for a positivity rate of 3.74%. The positivity rate is averaging 3.90% for the past seven days, compared to 4.73% for the preceding seven.

356 patients in ICU (+3 today, -36 for the week).

• 34 cases in Chatham-Kent: 32.1 per 100K
  
• 726 cases in Toronto: 24.8 per 100K
  
• 306 cases in Peel: 22.1 per 100K
  
• 87 cases in Niagara: 19.4 per 100K
  
• 15 cases in Huron Perth: 15.3 per 100K
  
• 168 cases in York: 15.1 per 100K
  
• 53 cases in Windsor-Essex: 13.6 per 100K
  
• 30 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 11.0 per 100K
  
• 52 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 9.6 per 100K
  
• 19 cases in Eastern Ontario: 9.4 per 100K
  
• 13 cases in Thunder Bay: 8.7 per 100K
  
• 47 cases in Halton: 8.6 per 100K
  
• 55 cases in Durham: 8.5 per 100K
  
• 49 cases in Hamilton: 8.5 per 100K
  
• 48 cases in Waterloo: 7.8 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 9 cases in Lambton: 6.9 per 100K
  
• 55 cases in Ottawa: 5.5 per 100K
  
• 8 cases in Southwestern Ontario: 4.0 per 100K
  
• 5 cases in Brant: 3.7 per 100K
  

[tomh009]

While I agree we should have done more sooner, there is almost zero chance we could have prevented it coming into the country, especially living next to the biggest hot zone on the planet. Hell it even spread to Antarctica.

It’s all a question of what we are willing to do. The virus moves with people, implementing controls on the movement of people does stop the virus. It is clear we are unwilling to implement the controls necessary to reach COVID zero, we are barely willing to implement controls that avert the most devastating outcomes. 

But make no mistake, there is nothing impossible here, this is a choice we have made.

I agree with ac3r that preventing the virus from getting into Canada at all would have been completely impractical. It was already spreading (outside of China!) in December, long before there were any serious alerts.

That said, much more could have been done to limit its spread within Canada.

[danbrotherston]

It’s all a question of what we are willing to do. The virus moves with people, implementing controls on the movement of people does stop the virus. It is clear we are unwilling to implement the controls necessary to reach COVID zero, we are barely willing to implement controls that avert the most devastating outcomes. 

But make no mistake, there is nothing impossible here, this is a choice we have made.

I agree with ac3r that preventing the virus from getting into Canada at all would have been completely impractical. It was already spreading (outside of China!) in December, long before there were any serious alerts.

That said, much more could have been done to limit its spread within Canada.

"limit"...how about eliminate.

Yes, I'm not suggesting that we could have prevented it from coming here ever, but we could have pursued an extinction policy, we did not. That was a choice.

[tomh009]

I agree with ac3r that preventing the virus from getting into Canada at all would have been completely impractical. It was already spreading (outside of China!) in December, long before there were any serious alerts.

That said, much more could have been done to limit its spread within Canada.

"limit"...how about eliminate.

Yes, I'm not suggesting that we could have prevented it from coming here ever, but we could have pursued an extinction policy, we did not. That was a choice.

It was a choice, yes. Travel would have needed to be eliminated (federal government). All returning Canadians would have needed to be in enforced quarantine (federal). COVID tests also for any truck drivers or air crews entering Canada (federal). Hard lockdown in each province (provincial governments). Not sure that we could have realistically implemented this though -- at least implemented successfully.

It worked in NZ and (for the most part) in Australia. But other countries (in Europe) did hard lockdowns and were not able to eliminate the virus. Living on an island does make it easier.

[danbrotherston]

"limit"...how about eliminate.

Yes, I'm not suggesting that we could have prevented it from coming here ever, but we could have pursued an extinction policy, we did not. That was a choice.

It was a choice, yes. Travel would have needed to be eliminated (federal government). All returning Canadians would have needed to be in enforced quarantine (federal). COVID tests also for any truck drivers or air crews entering Canada (federal). Hard lockdown in each province (provincial governments). Not sure that we could have realistically implemented this though -- at least implemented successfully.

It worked in NZ and (for the most part) in Australia. But other countries (in Europe) did hard lockdowns and were not able to eliminate the virus. Living on an island does make it easier.

Travel is not banned in NZ but there is a 14 day quarantine strictly enforced. 

Being an island doesn't really mean anything. We have significant travel, we just need to set the same restrictions for border crossing.

As for elimination it also has to do with keeping lockdowns long enough. Like others, we will no doubt be lifting ours too soon again.

[jeffster]

So apparently there is a Made in Canada solution. However, the business is having a hard time getting the attention of the government.

https://globalnews.ca/news/7608677/coron...rapeutics/

Having spoken to some experts as to the why, it appears it's because this is a Western Canada based company. It's in Calgary, so their is little interest from current government. Just a reminder how this country works, though, is the the Fed are building a facility in Montreal. Won't be ready any time soon.

https://montreal.ctvnews.ca/quebec-compa...-1.5159056

But one needs to follow the money. I don't like what I am seeing here. But follow the money. We have here a very crooked government. And sorry for making this post political, but I am sick and tired of this lockdown. IF we have an in-house solution that could have emergency use, f'en us it. OMG. We can't! It's in Alberta! Perhaps fund this company in Calgary and give this vaccine a shot after you finish testing, and perhaps all of us could get a shot by July.

BUT....NO. When it comes to stuff like this, politics need to be put to the side. Who cares that Western Canada hates you? You do nothing for them. I don't blame them. But people are dying, in including people in Quebec. Get the freaking vaccine and don't make this about yourself.

And please, don't defend these actions. Follow the money.

[taylortbb]

So apparently there is a Made in Canada solution. However, the business is having a hard time getting the attention of the government.

https://globalnews.ca/news/7608677/coron...rapeutics/

Having spoken to some experts as to the why, it appears it's because this is a Western Canada based company. It's in Calgary, so their is little interest from current government. Just a reminder how this country works, though, is the the Fed are building a facility in Montreal. Won't be ready any time soon.

https://montreal.ctvnews.ca/quebec-compa...-1.5159056

But one needs to follow the money. I don't like what I am seeing here. But follow the money. We have here a very crooked government. And sorry for making this post political, but I am sick and tired of this lockdown. IF we have an in-house solution that could have emergency use, f'en us it. OMG. We can't! It's in Alberta! Perhaps fund this company in Calgary and give this vaccine a shot after you finish testing, and perhaps all of us could get a shot by July.

BUT....NO. When it comes to stuff like this, politics need to be put to the side. Who cares that Western Canada hates you? You do nothing for them. I don't blame them. But people are dying, in including people in Quebec. Get the freaking vaccine and don't make this about yourself.

And please, don't defend these actions. Follow the money.

The Providence Therapeutics story makes great headlines, but your anti-Calgary conspiracy theories are frankly pure bullshit.

Provide Therapeutics is a tiny startup, as in ~30 employees tiny. Could they have made a Covid-19 vaccine? Maybe, they do have some experience with mRNA tech, but their ability to scale manufacturing is really questionable. I definitely think awarding them a huge vaccine contract would be an incredibly risky move for the government. Right now mRNA vaccines (Pfizer and Moderna) are the stars, but that wasn't obvious 6-9 months ago when these decisions were being made. The Covid-19 vaccines are the first ever mRNA vaccines approved. Giving huge amounts of money to a ~30 person company with risky unproven tech would not be my first choice, when there's other players out there with a lot more experience and resources behind them.

The vaccine that did get funded in Montreal was a Medicago-GSK project, with GSK being one of the largest pharmaceutical companies in the world. It's also using a more traditional vaccine technology. Both of those, if you're investing 6-9 months ago, make it a far safer bet.

No amount of money would make a Providence Therapeutics vaccine ready for mass distribution in 2021. They're just starting phase 1 trials now, and building a new mRNA manufacturing facility isn't exactly easy. I definitely think we should invest in domestic mRNA vaccine capability, and maybe Providence Therapeutics is a good way to do so, but that's a "next pandemic" sort of issue.

[danbrotherston]

So apparently there is a Made in Canada solution. However, the business is having a hard time getting the attention of the government.

https://globalnews.ca/news/7608677/coron...rapeutics/

Having spoken to some experts as to the why, it appears it's because this is a Western Canada based company. It's in Calgary, so their is little interest from current government. Just a reminder how this country works, though, is the the Fed are building a facility in Montreal. Won't be ready any time soon.

https://montreal.ctvnews.ca/quebec-compa...-1.5159056

But one needs to follow the money. I don't like what I am seeing here. But follow the money. We have here a very crooked government. And sorry for making this post political, but I am sick and tired of this lockdown. IF we have an in-house solution that could have emergency use, f'en us it. OMG. We can't! It's in Alberta! Perhaps fund this company in Calgary and give this vaccine a shot after you finish testing, and perhaps all of us could get a shot by July.

BUT....NO. When it comes to stuff like this, politics need to be put to the side. Who cares that Western Canada hates you? You do nothing for them. I don't blame them. But people are dying, in including people in Quebec. Get the freaking vaccine and don't make this about yourself.

And please, don't defend these actions. Follow the money.

The Providence Therapeutics story makes great headlines, but your anti-Calgary conspiracy theories are frankly pure bullshit.

Completely agree. Honestly it's ridiculous. The current government panders to Alberta to an inconceivable level. They've spent billions of our dollars on pipelines for the exclusive benefit of making Alberta's oil companies and government look better.

Certainly I have issues with the federal government but I'm so tired of the ridiculous rhetoric that they are anti Alberta. 

And yes, you no doubt have a laundry list of grievances. We *ALL* do. Unless you think the liberals are anti-every part of Canada then it's just normal "I don't agree with everything the government does" because again, they do plenty of positive (if inconceivably bad policy) things for Alberta. 

This rhetoric is being pushed by certain right wing parties from Alberta for political gain.  They are putting party over country, and frankly party over their own province.