The COVID-19 pandemic

[ac3r]

If there is one thing this pandemic will teach us, it's that - as a whole - most of the world was completely unprepared and incompetent. Everything from getting morons to wear a mask to supporting hospitals has been a colossal fuck up.

It has angered me a lot, because I've essentially lost a year of my life because of this thing and it is just going on and on because we seem too stupid to come together and do the right thing.

[tomh009]

WEDNESDAY 2021-02-03

Waterloo Region reported only 32 new cases today (6.5% of the active cases) and one fewer for yesterday for a total of 20; 360 new cases for the week (-39), averaging 8.6% of active cases. 445 active cases, -212 in the last seven days.

Next testing report on Friday.

Ontario reported 1,172 new cases today with a seven-day average of 1,642 (-104). 1,655 recoveries and 67 deaths translated to a drop of 550 active cases and a new total of 16,811. -5,351 active cases for the week and 347 deaths (50 per day). 52,418 tests for a positivity rate of 2.24%. The positivity rate is averaging 3.49% for the past seven days, compared to 4.36% for the preceding seven.

336 patients in ICU (-5 today, -41 for the week). 1,066 total hospital beds in use, -316 for the week.

• 444 cases in Toronto: 15.2 per 100K
  
• 199 cases in Peel: 14.4 per 100K
  
• 46 cases in Middlesex-London: 11.4 per 100K
  
• 17 cases in Thunder Bay: 11.3 per 100K
  
• 41 cases in Windsor-Essex: 10.5 per 100K
  
• 110 cases in York: 9.9 per 100K
  
• 26 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 9.6 per 100K
  
• 14 cases in Eastern Ontario: 6.9 per 100K
  
• 42 cases in Durham: 6.5 per 100K
  
• 39 cases in Waterloo: 6.3 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 58 cases in Ottawa: 5.8 per 100K
  
• 26 cases in Hamilton: 4.5 per 100K
  
• 20 cases in Niagara: 4.5 per 100K
  
• 24 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 4.4 per 100K
  
• 24 cases in Halton: 4.4 per 100K
  
• 7 cases in Southwestern Ontario: 3.5 per 100K
  
• 3 cases in Huron Perth: 3.1 per 100K
  
• 4 cases in Brant: 2.9 per 100K
  
• 4 cases in Leeds, Grenville & Lanark: 2.4 per 100K
  

[ijmorlan]

There is no evidence that Trudeau and family are profitting from their political decisions (or at least, nobody that I can recall has ever deigned to share it).

Honestly, you sound like the lunatics in the National Post comments boards. I’m not a huge Trudeau fan, and can point to several specific things he’s done which are really dumb, but this whole meme that he is a worse grifter than the previous president is ridiculous.

And nothing will change until the electorate starts thinking clearly — just reflexively denigrating whichever party one doesn’t like isn’t how one effects meaningful change.

So if someone doesn't align with your thinking or point of view they are a lunatic ?  Speaks volumes....

No, that is an incorrect characterization of my beliefs, and also not supported by what I have written on this board over the last several years.

But there are posters that can be found complaining about what a lying idiot Trudeau supposedly is on more or less every article, for example, regardless of whether Trudeau’s competence is even relevant; or complaining on every article about a government program about “waste of money”; and so on, apparently, to infinity.

So while it is true that I (mostly) disagree with those people, that is not what makes me call them lunatics, and you would know that if you cared to consider the overall content of my comments here, rather than reflexively assuming that I must consider all those who disagree with me to be lunatics based on one single comment.

[ac3r]

Russia's Sputnik V vaccine has been peer reviewed and found to have efficacy of 91.6%. Would be helpful if we approve and use this as well as the others, but I suspect the lingering Red Scare that still perpetuates our western mentalities would never let that happen (although Germany/EU is currently considering it): https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lance...ium=social

[danbrotherston]

Russia's Sputnik V vaccine has been peer reviewed and found to have efficacy of 91.6%. Would be helpful if we approve and use this as well as the others, but I suspect the lingering Red Scare that still perpetuates our western mentalities would never let that happen (although Germany/EU is currently considering it): https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lance...ium=social

Whether red scare or not...I actually don't have full trust in Russia's methods. They've earned that reputation through cheating and generally prioritizing image over facts. I mean, no wonder Putin and Trump got along so well.

Now, obviously the peer reviewed study gives it more credibility, but ultimately, it looks like the data is still coming from Russia, and even I'm having trouble swallowing that pill.

That being said, we really should be looking at every option, maybe an additional study could be done here, or maybe Health Canada could look at the results with more scrutiny.

But would it matter? Do they even want to sell us the vaccine? I'm not sure what the process is, but I was under the impression that the maker of the vaccine had to apply for approval here, have they done that? Do they want to do that?

[tomh009]

Russia's Sputnik V vaccine has been peer reviewed and found to have efficacy of 91.6%. Would be helpful if we approve and use this as well as the others, but I suspect the lingering Red Scare that still perpetuates our western mentalities would never let that happen (although Germany/EU is currently considering it): https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lance...onavirus21&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social

Only interim results, though, but it could form the basis for a rolling approval.

However, Health Canada doesn't arbitrarily choose medicines to be reviewed and approved, the manufacturers submit them for approval. So, Gamelaya Institute would need to submit it for emergency use approval. Assuming the results are good enough (and The Lancet did accept them for publication) I don't think Health Canada would refuse to approve. Might be different in the US, though.

[ac3r]

They would most certainly sell it. Shortly after they approved it in their own country, they offered to sell it to almost any other nation that wished to buy it, although naturally there was little interest in it at that point. If Canada has any interest in it, we'd of course have to approve it here first.

That said, I don't see what isn't to trust, especially now that it has been peer reviewed by the global science community. Russia isn't some backwards land of uneducated plebeians, they're an incredible nation with a rich history and have made important contributions to everything from philosophy to space travel to medicine. We trust their rockets to put our astronauts and satellites into space, right? Putin is one man and he does not control everything. Our geopolitical paranoia towards them should not play a part in something important like this, provided it was not sold to us with any caveats that deeply undermine our geopolitics.

[tomh009]

They would most certainly sell it. Shortly after they approved it in their own country, they offered to sell it to almost any other nation that wished to buy it, although naturally there was little interest in it at that point. If Canada has any interest in it, we'd of course have to approve it here first.

That said, I don't see what isn't to trust, especially now that it has been peer reviewed by the global science community. Russia isn't some backwards land of uneducated plebeians, they're an incredible nation with a rich history and have made important contributions to everything from philosophy to space travel to medicine. We trust their rockets to put our astronauts and satellites into space, right? Putin is one man and he does not control everything. Our geopolitical paranoia towards them should not play a part in something important like this, provided it was not sold to us with any caveats that deeply undermine our geopolitics.

Well, no one has refused to approve it. At least not so far. But the first step is up to Gamelaya. I don't know what their availability is at this point; as of December, they had sold 1B+ doses already.

As for the Russian government, they basically authorized its use based on phase 1 trials only (yeah, it doesn't look like it's going to kill the people who get vaccinated). It looks like it worked out and the vaccine is good, but that was a massive risk that they took.

[plam]

They would most certainly sell it. Shortly after they approved it in their own country, they offered to sell it to almost any other nation that wished to buy it, although naturally there was little interest in it at that point. If Canada has any interest in it, we'd of course have to approve it here first.

That said, I don't see what isn't to trust, especially now that it has been peer reviewed by the global science community. Russia isn't some backwards land of uneducated plebeians, they're an incredible nation with a rich history and have made important contributions to everything from philosophy to space travel to medicine. We trust their rockets to put our astronauts and satellites into space, right? Putin is one man and he does not control everything. Our geopolitical paranoia towards them should not play a part in something important like this, provided it was not sold to us with any caveats that deeply undermine our geopolitics.

The thing about peer review is that it's just one data point. You can only actually believe a result after it has a couple of data points in its favour, ideally replications by other groups. That's why we have contradictory results appearing in the literature and why meta-analyses are stronger evidence than single papers. For the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines, we should believe the result a bit more because the two vaccines are different but similar and have broadly similar efficacy.

Astronauts and satellites are less consequential than pandemics, really.

Having said that, they are currently experiencing production issues with the Sputnik vaccine. It's an adenovirus vaccine like AstraZeneca and there aren't a lot of such vaccines on the market already (just a TB shot). So it's not necessarily going to be super easy, though probably easier than mRNA.

PS the NZ community cases now seem to be resolved with a total of 1 onward transmission to a family member, now in quarantine.

[tomh009]

Incidentally, this is what needs to be done to manufacture mRNA vaccine:

• Step One: Produce the appropriate stretch of DNA, containing the sequence that you need to have transcribed into mRNA. This is generally done in bacterial culture.
  
• Step Two: Produce that mRNA from your DNA template using enzymes in a bioreactor.
  
• Step Three: Produce the lipids that you need for the formulation.
  
• Step Four: take your mRNA and your lipids and combine these into lipid nanoparticles (LNPs). 
  
• Step Five: combine the LNPs with the other components of the formulation (phosphate buffers, saline, sucrose and such) and fill those into vials.
  
• Step Six: get those vials into trays, into packages, into boxes, into crates, and out the door into trucks and airplanes.
  

Other than the last two steps, there are significant technological hurdles to be overcome. That's why there are only a handful of mRNA vaccine manufacturers in the world at this point.

[danbrotherston]

They would most certainly sell it. Shortly after they approved it in their own country, they offered to sell it to almost any other nation that wished to buy it, although naturally there was little interest in it at that point. If Canada has any interest in it, we'd of course have to approve it here first.

That said, I don't see what isn't to trust, especially now that it has been peer reviewed by the global science community. Russia isn't some backwards land of uneducated plebeians, they're an incredible nation with a rich history and have made important contributions to everything from philosophy to space travel to medicine. We trust their rockets to put our astronauts and satellites into space, right? Putin is one man and he does not control everything. Our geopolitical paranoia towards them should not play a part in something important like this, provided it was not sold to us with any caveats that deeply undermine our geopolitics.

Nobody thinks Russia is incapable of producing a vaccine. But the Russian state has shown a willingness to cheat and lie to advance their own image before. They had a very sofisticated system for cheating at the Olympics for example. And a peer review committee is mostly looking for scientific rigour not investigating for outright lies and deceit. They have already been fooled once, last time by an unscrupulous corporation.

I am not saying that the vaccine cannot work, I am just saying I don't trust the honesty of the Russian state or the independence of the vaccine producer. As others have said there is only one peer reviewed study so far. One data point,

[Chris]

They would most certainly sell it. Shortly after they approved it in their own country, they offered to sell it to almost any other nation that wished to buy it, although naturally there was little interest in it at that point. If Canada has any interest in it, we'd of course have to approve it here first.

That said, I don't see what isn't to trust, especially now that it has been peer reviewed by the global science community. Russia isn't some backwards land of uneducated plebeians, they're an incredible nation with a rich history and have made important contributions to everything from philosophy to space travel to medicine. We trust their rockets to put our astronauts and satellites into space, right? Putin is one man and he does not control everything. Our geopolitical paranoia towards them should not play a part in something important like this, provided it was not sold to us with any caveats that deeply undermine our geopolitics.

Nobody thinks Russia is incapable of producing a vaccine. But the Russian state has shown a willingness to cheat and lie to advance their own image before. They had a very sophisticated system for cheating at the Olympics for example. And a peer review committee is mostly looking for scientific rigour not investigating for outright lies and deceit. They have already been fooled once, last time by an unscrupulous corporation.

I am not saying that the vaccine cannot work, I am just saying I don't trust the honesty of the Russian state or the independence of the vaccine producer. As others have said there is only one peer reviewed study so far. One data point,

Apologies for going slightly off topic but if anyone hasn't seen Icarus on Netfilx look it up if you are interested in the govn't doping scandal.

[Coke6pk]

If there is one thing this pandemic will teach us, it's that - as a whole - most of the world was completely unprepared and incompetent. Everything from getting morons to wear a mask to supporting hospitals has been a colossal fuck up.

It has angered me a lot, because I've essentially lost a year of my life because of this thing and it is just going on and on because we seem too stupid to come together and do the right thing.

THIS.

Political beliefs aside, there has been no country/party/leader that has tackled this pandemic perfectly.  Everyone/where has had hurdles and struggles, some bigger than others.  

I'm not a fan of Trudeau, and yes, he (and the rest of the government... he isn't single handily controlling this) could of done better... but he also could of done worse.  Erin O'Toole, Jasmeet Singh and Annamie Paul (I had to Google that one) would of fucked this up too.

I had a huge hate-on for DoFo pre-COVID, but I respected the way he took the reins when the crisis started.  I've swayed back to being less than impressed with him again.

All these politians are human, and hindsight is 20-20.  We will look back years from now and be able to look under a microscope to judge their shortcomings... but this is something none of us have lived through, and a lot of decisions are made on informed guesses.

Coke

[tomh009]

10-day averages for key regions in Ontario, plus the weekly trend as of 2021-02-02 (posting this every two days).

Region	Cases today	per 100K	10-day average	per 100K	Weekly trend
Peel	265	19.2	310	22.4	-19%
Toronto	584	19.9	566	19.3	-26%
Niagara	58	12.9	73	16.4	-47%
Chatham-Kent	24	22.6	15	14.1	+4%
York	132	11.9	155	14.0	-29%
Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph	12	4.4	35	12.7	-54%
Windsor-Essex	24	6.2	47	12.0	-28%
Hamilton	78	13.5	62	10.7	-32%
Thunder Bay	10	6.7	15	9.9	-5%
Waterloo	51	8.3	60	9.6	-45%
Durham	34	5.3	61	9.5	-28%
Halton	58	10.6	50	9.1	-15%
Eastern Ontario	20	9.9	18	9.0	-40%
Middlesex-London	21	5.2	33	8.3	-23%
Simcoe-Muskoka	55	10.2	43	7.9	+7%
Huron Perth	11	11.2	7	7.3	-9%
Southwestern Ontario	16	8.0	12	6.1	+3%
Lambton	10	7.6	7	5.6	-17%
Brant	7	5.1	7	5.0	-64%
Ottawa	46	4.6	49	4.9	-24%
Ontario total					-26%

Toronto numbers appear to be stabilizing. I have made some estimated correction for prior dates (no change to totals, only estimates as to which date cases should have been reported on) above.

[tomh009]

THURSDAY 2021-02-04

Waterloo Region reported 70 new cases today (15.8% of the active cases) and none added for yesterday for a total of 32; 380 new cases for the week (+20), averaging 9.8% of active cases. 470 active cases, -159 in the last seven days.

Next testing report on Friday.

Ontario reported 1,563 new cases today with a seven-day average of 1,567 (-75). 1,956 recoveries and 88 deaths translated to a drop of 481 active cases and a new total of 16,330. -5,378 active cases for the week and 379 deaths (54 per day). 64,467 tests for a positivity rate of 2.42%. The positivity rate is averaging 3.37% for the past seven days, compared to 4.31% for the preceding seven.

323 patients in ICU (-13 today, -35 for the week). 1,101 total hospital beds in use, -237 for the week.

• 24 cases in Chatham-Kent: 22.6 per 100K
  
• 584 cases in Toronto: 19.9 per 100K
  
• 265 cases in Peel: 19.2 per 100K
  
• 78 cases in Hamilton: 13.5 per 100K
  
• 58 cases in Niagara: 12.9 per 100K
  
• 132 cases in York: 11.9 per 100K
  
• 11 cases in Huron Perth: 11.2 per 100K
  
• 58 cases in Halton: 10.6 per 100K
  
• 55 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 10.2 per 100K
  
• 20 cases in Eastern Ontario: 9.9 per 100K
  
• 51 cases in Waterloo: 8.3 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 16 cases in Southwestern Ontario: 8.0 per 100K
  
• 10 cases in Lambton: 7.6 per 100K
  
• 10 cases in Thunder Bay: 6.7 per 100K
  
• 24 cases in Windsor-Essex: 6.2 per 100K
  
• 34 cases in Durham: 5.3 per 100K
  
• 21 cases in Middlesex-London: 5.2 per 100K
  
• 7 cases in Brant: 5.1 per 100K
  
• 46 cases in Ottawa: 4.6 per 100K
  
• 12 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 4.4 per 100K