The COVID-19 pandemic

[tomh009]

THURSDAY 2021-03-25

Waterloo Region reported 43 new cases for today (17.4% of the active cases) and two fewer for yesterday for a total of 34; 226 new cases for the week (+6), averaging 11.1% of active cases. 262 active cases, -79 in the last seven days.

Next testing report on Friday.

2,459 vaccine doses delivered, with a seven-day average of 1,724. At this pace, the dose count will reach 70% of the regional population on 2021-10-24 (-16 days).

Ontario reported 2,380 new cases today -- 280 of those from undefined prior dates, and mostly in the GTA -- with a seven-day average of 1,794 (+118). 1,329 recoveries and 17 deaths translated to an increase of 1,034 active cases and a new total of 16,081. +3,267 active cases for the week and 78 deaths (11 per day). 60,077 tests for a positivity rate of 3.96%. The positivity rate is averaging 3.92% for the past seven days, compared to 3.07% for the preceding seven.

332 patients in ICU (-1 today, +28 for the week) and a total of 894 hospital beds in use (+164 for the week).

79,446 doses of vaccine administered, with a seven-day average of 56,592. At this pace, the dose count will reach 70% of the provincial population on 2021-08-18 (-8 days).

• 40 cases in Lambton: 30.5 per 100K
  
• 736 cases in Toronto: 25.1 per 100K
  
• 46 cases in Eastern Ontario: 22.7 per 100K
  
• 34 cases in Thunder Bay: 22.7 per 100K
  
• 244 cases in York: 22.0 per 100K
  
• 294 cases in Peel: 21.3 per 100K
  
• 152 cases in Ottawa: 15.3 per 100K
  
• 90 cases in Durham: 13.9 per 100K
  
• 79 cases in Hamilton: 13.6 per 100K
  
• 18 cases in Brant: 13.2 per 100K
  
• 45 cases in Niagara: 10.0 per 100K
  
• 17 cases in Leeds, Grenville & Lanark: 10.0 per 100K
  
• 53 cases in Halton: 9.7 per 100K
  
• 48 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 8.9 per 100K
  
• 50 cases in Waterloo: 8.1 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 29 cases in Sudbury: 7.5 per 100K
  
• 7 cases in Chatham-Kent: 6.6 per 100K
  
• 17 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 6.3 per 100K
  
• 25 cases in Middlesex-London: 6.2 per 100K
  
• 24 cases in Windsor-Essex: 6.2 per 100K
  
• 5 cases in Northwestern: 5.7 per 100K
  
• 8 cases in Southwestern Ontario: 4.0 per 100K
  
• 6 cases in Kingston Frontenac: 2.9 per 100K
  

Only regions with at least two cases per 100,000 population

[tomh009]

10-day averages for key regions in Ontario, plus the weekly trend as of 2021-03-26 (posting this every two days).

Region	Cases today	per 100K	10-day average	per 100K	Weekly trend
Peel	397	28.7	318	23.0	+17%
Lambton	30	22.9	30	22.6	+0%
Thunder Bay	17	11.3	33	21.9	-52%
Toronto	682	23.3	563	19.2	+31%
York	254	22.9	175	15.7	+46%
Hamilton	122	21.1	90	15.6	+22%
Durham	123	19.0	88	13.7	+42%
Eastern Ontario	30	14.8	24	12.0	+80%
Leeds, Grenville & Lanark	16	9.4	19	11.4	-21%
Chatham-Kent	7	6.6	12	11.3	-30%
Ottawa	129	13.0	93	9.3	+53%
Niagara	37	8.3	39	8.7	-9%
Northwestern	5	5.7	7	8.4	-56%
Halton	40	7.3	46	8.3	+13%
Simcoe-Muskoka	48	8.9	44	8.1	-6%
Brant	9	6.6	10	7.5	+9%
Sudbury	33	8.5	28	7.3	+12%
Middlesex-London	50	12.4	28	6.9	+50%
Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph	13	4.8	17	6.3	-1%
Windsor-Essex	16	4.1	24	6.2	-35%
Waterloo	43	7.0	37	6.0	+17%
Kingston Frontenac	7	3.4	11	5.2	-46%
Southwestern Ontario	10	5.0	9	4.7	+18%
Ontario total					+26%

The trends for Durham, Toronto and York are not looking good.

[ac3r]

Those with specific health conditions can now pre-register for COVID vaccine: https://www.kitchenertoday.com/coronavir...ne-3578323

[tomh009]

FRIDAY 2021-03-26

Waterloo Region reported 30 new cases for today (11.2% of the active cases) and two more for yesterday for a total of 45; 226 new cases for the week (+0), averaging 11.4% of active cases. 267 active cases, -60 in the last seven days.

An average of 7,407 tests per day for the past week ... wait, what? No, I can't believe it, either. There is some data catch-up going on here, so today's data is irrelevant to the current situation. Next valid testing report will be next week Friday.

2,744 vaccine doses delivered, with a seven-day average of 1,840. At this pace, the dose count will reach 70% of the regional population on 2021-10-10 (-14 days).

Ontario reported 2,169 new cases today, with a seven-day average of 1,855 (+61). 1,675 recoveries and 12 deaths translated to an increase of 482 active cases and a new total of 16,563. +3,310 active cases for the week and 80 deaths (11 per day). 53,436 tests for a positivity rate of 4.06% -- about double what we were averaging just a month ago. The positivity rate is averaging 4.06% for the past seven days, compared to 3.22% for the preceding seven.

359 patients in ICU (+27 today, +50 for the week) and a total of 913 hospital beds in use (+154 for the week). So, our government decides it's time to loosen the restrictions?

82,996 doses of vaccine administered, with a seven-day average of 59.713. At this pace, the dose count will reach 70% of the provincial population on 2021-08-10 (-8 days). There is still a two-month gap between the provincial and regional projections but it's down by seven days now.

• 397 cases in Peel: 28.7 per 100K
  
• 682 cases in Toronto: 23.3 per 100K
  
• 30 cases in Lambton: 22.9 per 100K
  
• 254 cases in York: 22.9 per 100K
  
• 122 cases in Hamilton: 21.1 per 100K
  
• 123 cases in Durham: 19.0 per 100K
  
• 30 cases in Eastern Ontario: 14.8 per 100K
  
• 129 cases in Ottawa: 13.0 per 100K
  
• 50 cases in Middlesex-London: 12.4 per 100K
  
• 17 cases in Thunder Bay: 11.3 per 100K
  
• 16 cases in Leeds, Grenville & Lanark: 9.4 per 100K
  
• 48 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 8.9 per 100K
  
• 33 cases in Sudbury: 8.5 per 100K
  
• 37 cases in Niagara: 8.3 per 100K
  
• 40 cases in Halton: 7.3 per 100K
  
• 43 cases in Waterloo: 7.0 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 9 cases in Brant: 6.6 per 100K
  
• 7 cases in Chatham-Kent: 6.6 per 100K
  
• 5 cases in Northwestern: 5.7 per 100K
  
• 5 cases in Huron Perth: 5.1 per 100K
  
• 10 cases in Southwestern Ontario: 5.0 per 100K
  
• 13 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 4.8 per 100K
  
• 16 cases in Windsor-Essex: 4.1 per 100K
  
• 7 cases in Kingston Frontenac: 3.4 per 100K
  

Only regions with at least two cases per 100,000 population

[plam]

82,996 doses of vaccine administered, with a seven-day average of 59.713. At this pace, the dose count will reach 70% of the provincial population on 2021-08-10 (-8 days). There is still a two-month gap between the provincial and regional projections but it's down by seven days now.

Getting better. That's for one dose, right?

[tomh009]

82,996 doses of vaccine administered, with a seven-day average of 59.713. At this pace, the dose count will reach 70% of the provincial population on 2021-08-10 (-8 days). There is still a two-month gap between the provincial and regional projections but it's down by seven days now.

Getting better. That's for one dose, right?

Basically, yes. Using a simplified metric.

[tomh009]

SATURDAY 2021-03-27

Waterloo Region reported 57 new cases for today (21.2% of the active cases) and zero more for yesterday for a total of 30; 262 new cases for the week (+36), averaging 13.5% of active cases. 283 active cases, -27 in the last seven days.

Next testing report with valid data will be on Friday.

Next vaccination report will be on Monday.

Ontario reported 2,453 new cases today -- up, up and away! -- with a seven-day average of 1,944 (+89). 1,481 recoveries and 16 deaths translated to an increase of 956 active cases and a new total of 17,519. +3,709 active cases for the week and 85 deaths (12 per day). 77,740 tests for a positivity rate of 4.02%. The positivity rate is averaging 4.13% for the past seven days, compared to 3.36% for the preceding seven.

365 patients in ICU (+6 today, +63 for the week) and a total of 985 hospital beds in use (+220 for the week).

77,740 doses of vaccine administered, with a seven-day average of 62,207. At this pace, the dose count will reach 70% of the provincial population on 2021-08-04 (-6 days).

• 411 cases in Peel: 29.7 per 100K
  
• 814 cases in Toronto: 27.8 per 100K
  
• 156 cases in Hamilton: 26.9 per 100K
  
• 263 cases in York: 23.7 per 100K
  
• 31 cases in Lambton: 23.7 per 100K
  
• 139 cases in Durham: 21.5 per 100K
  
• 25 cases in Thunder Bay: 16.7 per 100K
  
• 72 cases in Niagara: 16.1 per 100K
  
• 63 cases in Middlesex-London: 15.6 per 100K
  
• 73 cases in Halton: 13.3 per 100K
  
• 11 cases in Northwestern: 12.5 per 100K
  
• 46 cases in Windsor-Essex: 11.8 per 100K
  
• 115 cases in Ottawa: 11.6 per 100K
  
• 23 cases in Eastern Ontario: 11.3 per 100K
  
• 17 cases in Leeds, Grenville & Lanark: 10.0 per 100K
  
• 43 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 8.0 per 100K
  
• 9 cases in Brant: 6.6 per 100K
  
• 18 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 6.6 per 100K
  
• 25 cases in Sudbury: 6.4 per 100K
  
• 12 cases in Southwestern Ontario: 6.0 per 100K
  
• 5 cases in Chatham-Kent: 4.7 per 100K
  
• 23 cases in Waterloo: 3.7 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 5 cases in Kingston Frontenac: 2.4 per 100K
  

Only regions with at least two cases per 100,000 population

[tomh009]

10-day averages for key regions in Ontario, plus the weekly trend as of 2021-03-28 (posting this every two days).

Region	Cases today	per 100K	10-day average	per 100K	Weekly trend
Peel	356	25.8	340	24.6	+15%
Lambton	26	19.8	30	22.7	-15%
Toronto	780	26.6	628	21.4	+41%
Thunder Bay	30	20.0	29	19.3	-27%
York	278	25.0	201	18.1	+59%
Hamilton	78	13.5	102	17.6	-1%
Durham	219	33.9	111	17.2	+81%
Eastern Ontario	27	13.3	26	12.6	+38%
Chatham-Kent	16	15.1	12	11.3	-45%
Leeds, Grenville & Lanark	11	6.5	19	10.9	-40%
Ottawa	150	15.1	104	10.5	+60%
Niagara	49	10.9	42	9.3	+57%
Halton	45	8.2	51	9.2	+4%
Middlesex-London	75	18.5	37	9.2	+145%
Northwestern	7	8.0	8	8.8	-48%
Simcoe-Muskoka	62	11.5	45	8.4	+18%
Sudbury	29	7.5	30	7.6	-17%
Brant	7	5.1	10	7.1	-5%
Windsor-Essex	41	10.5	27	7.0	+28%
Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph	15	5.5	18	6.4	-19%
Southwestern Ontario	24	12.0	12	6.0	+39%
Waterloo	64	10.4	37	5.9	+65%
Kingston Frontenac	17	8.3	11	5.3	-45%
Huron Perth	5	5.1	2	2.1	+50%
Ontario total					+36%

[tomh009]

SUNDAY 2021-03-28

Waterloo Region reported 53 new cases for today (18.4% of the active cases) and zero more for yesterday for a total of 57; 284 new cases for the week (+22), averaging 14.6% of active cases. 309 active cases, +1 in the last seven days.

Next testing report with valid data will be on Friday.

Next vaccination report will be on Monday.

Ontario reported 2,448 new cases today with a seven-day average of 2,038 (+94) -- back over 2,000 again. 1,543 recoveries and 19 deaths translated to an increase of 886 active cases and a new total of 18,405. +4,175 active cases for the week and 86 deaths (12 per day). 50,227 tests for a positivity rate of 4.87%. The positivity rate is averaging 4.31% for the past seven days, compared to 3.35% for the preceding seven.

366 patients in ICU (+1 today, +61 for the week).

64,950 doses of vaccine administered, with a seven-day average of 65,654. At this pace, the dose count will reach 70% of the provincial population on 2021-07-28 (-7 days).

• 219 cases in Durham: 33.9 per 100K
  
• 780 cases in Toronto: 26.6 per 100K
  
• 356 cases in Peel: 25.8 per 100K
  
• 278 cases in York: 25.0 per 100K
  
• 30 cases in Thunder Bay: 20.0 per 100K
  
• 26 cases in Lambton: 19.8 per 100K
  
• 75 cases in Middlesex-London: 18.5 per 100K
  
• 16 cases in Chatham-Kent: 15.1 per 100K
  
• 150 cases in Ottawa: 15.1 per 100K
  
• 78 cases in Hamilton: 13.5 per 100K
  
• 27 cases in Eastern Ontario: 13.3 per 100K
  
• 24 cases in Southwestern Ontario: 12.0 per 100K
  
• 62 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 11.5 per 100K
  
• 49 cases in Niagara: 10.9 per 100K
  
• 41 cases in Windsor-Essex: 10.5 per 100K
  
• 64 cases in Waterloo: 10.4 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 17 cases in Kingston Frontenac: 8.3 per 100K
  
• 45 cases in Halton: 8.2 per 100K
  
• 7 cases in Northwestern: 8.0 per 100K
  
• 29 cases in Sudbury: 7.5 per 100K
  
• 11 cases in Leeds, Grenville & Lanark: 6.5 per 100K
  
• 15 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 5.5 per 100K
  
• 7 cases in Brant: 5.1 per 100K
  
• 5 cases in Huron Perth: 5.1 per 100K
  

Only regions with at least two cases per 100,000 population

[tomh009]

MONDAY 2021-03-29

Waterloo Region reported 38 new cases for today (12.3% of the active cases) and none more for yesterday for a total of 53; 300 new cases for the week (+13), averaging 15.4% of active cases. 308 active cases, +15 in the last seven days.

Next valid testing report on Friday.

2,786, 2,971 and 2,410 vaccine doses delivered over the last three days, with a seven-day average of 2,472. At this pace, the dose count will reach 70% of the regional population on 2021-08-19 (-51 days over the last three).

Ontario reported 2,094 new cases today, with a seven-day average of 2,094 (+56). 1,524 recoveries and 10 deaths translated to an increase of 560 active cases and a new total of 18,965. +4,214 active cases for the week and 93 deaths (13 per day). 39,470 tests for a positivity rate of 5.31%. The positivity rate is averaging 4.28% for the past seven days, compared to 3.60% for the preceding seven.

382 patients in ICU (+16 today, +84 for the week).

50,453 doses of vaccine administered, with a seven-day average of 68,385. At this pace, the dose count will reach 70% of the provincial population on 2021-007-23 (-5 days). There is currently a 27-day gap between the provincial and regional projections (-34 days over the last three).

• 368 cases in Peel: 26.6 per 100K
  
• 277 cases in York: 25.0 per 100K
  
• 618 cases in Toronto: 21.1 per 100K
  
• 37 cases in Eastern Ontario: 18.2 per 100K
  
• 23 cases in Lambton: 17.6 per 100K
  
• 69 cases in Middlesex-London: 17.0 per 100K
  
• 104 cases in Durham: 16.1 per 100K
  
• 74 cases in Halton: 13.5 per 100K
  
• 132 cases in Ottawa: 13.3 per 100K
  
• 58 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 10.7 per 100K
  
• 18 cases in Leeds, Grenville & Lanark: 10.6 per 100K
  
• 61 cases in Hamilton: 10.5 per 100K
  
• 11 cases in Chatham-Kent: 10.4 per 100K
  
• 38 cases in Windsor-Essex: 9.8 per 100K
  
• 13 cases in Brant: 9.6 per 100K
  
• 52 cases in Waterloo: 8.4 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 15 cases in Southwestern Ontario: 7.5 per 100K
  
• 33 cases in Niagara: 7.4 per 100K
  
• 15 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 5.5 per 100K
  
• 7 cases in Thunder Bay: 4.7 per 100K
  
• 17 cases in Sudbury: 4.4 per 100K
  
• 6 cases in Kingston Frontenac: 2.9 per 100K
  
• 2 cases in Northwestern: 2.3 per 100K
  

Only regions with at least two cases per 100,000 population

[ac3r]

New data shows COVID-19 pandemic now 'completely out of control' in Ontario, key scientific adviser says: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/o...-1.5968720

[tomh009]

10-day averages for key regions in Ontario, plus the weekly trend as of 2021-03-30 (posting this every two days).

Region	Cases today	per 100K	10-day average	per 100K	Weekly trend
Peel	434	31.4	350	25.3	+18%
Toronto	727	24.8	636	21.7	+26%
Lambton	20	15.3	28	21.7	-23%
York	229	20.6	209	18.9	+42%
Durham	194	30.0	118	18.2	+58%
Thunder Bay	16	10.7	26	17.4	-46%
Hamilton	123	21.2	100	17.3	-4%
Eastern Ontario	23	11.3	26	13.0	+27%
Chatham-Kent	12	11.3	12	11.2	-31%
Ottawa	144	14.5	110	11.0	+47%
Leeds, Grenville & Lanark	5	2.9	17	10.2	-45%
Halton	91	16.6	56	10.2	+33%
Middlesex-London	38	9.4	40	9.9	+82%
Niagara	63	14.1	43	9.5	+39%
Simcoe-Muskoka	39	7.2	46	8.5	+13%
Brant	25	18.4	11	8.3	+45%
Northwestern	1	1.1	7	7.6	-72%
Windsor-Essex	28	7.2	28	7.2	+25%
Sudbury	19	4.9	28	7.1	-30%
Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph	23	8.5	18	6.5	-6%
Waterloo	31	5.0	38	6.1	+38%
Southwestern Ontario	11	5.5	12	6.0	+24%
Kingston Frontenac	3	1.5	10	4.8	-58%
Ontario total					+34%

The trends are not encouraging, particularly in the GTA. Will the provincial government take some action to slow down the spread -- or just let it go and hope things will be OK until vaccination levels get higher?

[taylortbb]

Will the provincial government take some action to slow down the spread -- or just let it go and hope things will be OK until vaccination levels get higher?

Ford is currently busy reducing restrictions. He's opened outdoor dining in Toronto, opened more shopping, dramatically increased indoor restaurant capacity in red zone areas, etc. So even if there is some sort of action to slow down the spread, it'll be half hearted at best. I think we always knew that as soon as the vaccine rollout picked up that was the end of any attempt by Ford to really reduce things. I expect he figures that hospitals can deal with being overrun for a few months until vaccines are more widespread.

[danbrotherston]

Will the provincial government take some action to slow down the spread -- or just let it go and hope things will be OK until vaccination levels get higher?

Ford is currently busy reducing restrictions. He's opened outdoor dining in Toronto, opened more shopping, dramatically increased indoor restaurant capacity in red zone areas, etc. So even if we have do have some sort of action to slow down the spread, it'll be half hearted at best. I think we always knew that as soon as the vaccine rollout picked up that was the end of any attempt by Ford to really reduce things. I expect he figures that hospitals can deal with being overflowing for a few months until vaccines are more widespread.

I mean, he might think that, but at a certain point, there are going to be bodies piled in freezer trailers...we know where this leads.

Worse, and this reflects extremely poorly on our society, but it is younger people (well middle aged) who are taking the brunt of this right now, and as evil a thing as it is, fewer people dismiss those deaths as "oh well they were old".

[tomh009]

TUESDAY 2021-03-30

Waterloo Region reported 22 new cases for today (7.1% of the active cases) and one more for yesterday for a total of 39; 288 new cases for the week (-12), averaging 14.7% of active cases. 306 active cases, +32 in the last seven days.

An average of 1,413 tests per day for the past week for a positivity rate of 2.91%, up from 2.24% a week ago.

3,456 vaccine doses delivered, with a seven-day average of 2,695. At this pace, the dose count will reach 70% of the regional population on 2021-08-07 (-12 days over the last three).

Ontario reported 2,336 new cases today, with a seven-day average of 2,204 (+107). 1,477 recoveries and 10 deaths translated to an increase of 560 active cases and a new total of 18,965. +4,214 active cases for the week and 98 deaths (14 per day). 36,071 tests for a positivity rate of 6.48%. The positivity rate is averaging 4.53% for the past seven days, compared to 3.74% for the preceding seven.

387 patients in ICU (+5 today, +63 for the week).

70,645 doses of vaccine administered, with a seven-day average of 71,240. At this pace, the dose count will reach 70% of the provincial population on 2021-07-18 (-5 days). There is currently a 20-day gap between the provincial and regional projections (-7 days).

• 434 cases in Peel: 31.4 per 100K
  
• 194 cases in Durham: 30.0 per 100K
  
• 727 cases in Toronto: 24.8 per 100K
  
• 123 cases in Hamilton: 21.2 per 100K
  
• 229 cases in York: 20.6 per 100K
  
• 25 cases in Brant: 18.4 per 100K
  
• 91 cases in Halton: 16.6 per 100K
  
• 20 cases in Lambton: 15.3 per 100K
  
• 144 cases in Ottawa: 14.5 per 100K
  
• 63 cases in Niagara: 14.1 per 100K
  
• 23 cases in Eastern Ontario: 11.3 per 100K
  
• 12 cases in Chatham-Kent: 11.3 per 100K
  
• 16 cases in Thunder Bay: 10.7 per 100K
  
• 38 cases in Middlesex-London: 9.4 per 100K
  
• 23 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 8.5 per 100K
  
• 39 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 7.2 per 100K
  
• 28 cases in Windsor-Essex: 7.2 per 100K
  
• 11 cases in Southwestern Ontario: 5.5 per 100K
  
• 31 cases in Waterloo: 5.0 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 19 cases in Sudbury: 4.9 per 100K
  
• 5 cases in Leeds, Grenville & Lanark: 2.9 per 100K
  
• 2 cases in Huron Perth: 2.0 per 100K
  

Only regions with at least two cases per 100,000 population