The COVID-19 pandemic

[danbrotherston]

Is there a source for this?

I thought the goal with extending to 3 months was to get everyone a first shot first. In June and certainly in May many will still be waiting for a first shot. I wouldn't expect them to be bringing those shots up until there was excess supply.

I mean, don't get me wrong, I'd be extatic if there was excess supply in May...but I'm not putting any money on that bet.

I mean, we're almost half way through April and we aren't even broadly vaccinating 50+ at this point.

A source for the odds? No, the government doesn't publish odds.

But, let's do a bit of math. As of yesterday, about 17.7% of Ontario residents have had a single dose, and 2.5% have had two, for a total of 20.2%. The latter number is going up slowly enough that we can ignore it for the purposes of the back-of-the-envelope calculation here.

Now, Ontario is averaging almost 100K people per day (98,331/day for the past week) so let's use that number -- the numbers might yet increase depending on vaccine supplies but let's use the current rate. At 100K/day, it's enough for 1.8M in April, 3.1M in May and 3.0M in June: that's an incremental 53.6% of the total population by the end of May, for a total of 73.8%. By the time we get to 60%+ of the population, I fully expect that first shots will slow down as you start dealing with getting people out, whether it's people without Internet, hesitant people, busy people, whatever. So, my personal assessment is that in June we would be doing a significant number of second doses.

But that's assuming a supply of 9.1M doses for Ontario in Q2. The feds' plan is for a delivery of 35M doses to Canada in the quarter, which should translate to about 14M for Ontario, about 65% more than the calculation above. Add 5M to the above numbers, and we are well above the point of 100% first doses -- and we are not vaccinating kids, and we won't get to 100% on adults, either.
https://www.thestar.com/politics/federal...doses.html

That is an optimistic assessment and schedule (aside from the high hesitancy rate).

I do hope you are right.

[tomh009]

That is an optimistic assessment and schedule (aside from the high hesitancy rate).

I do hope you are right.

Which part do you think is particularly optimistic? We're doing 100K/day at the moment, do you expect that to drop? That assumes 9.1M shots available in 2Q.

The feds have committed to 35M doses for Canada in 2Q; that should mean 14M for Canada. And in 1Q they delivered significantly more doses than they had previously committed to. If they actually deliver fewer than 9.1M to Ontario, they are likely missing the national plan by 13M or so doses, and to me (again, personal risk assessment) that seems pretty unlikely.

[danbrotherston]

That is an optimistic assessment and schedule (aside from the high hesitancy rate).

I do hope you are right.

Which part do you think is particularly optimistic? We're doing 100K/day at the moment, do you expect that to drop? That assumes 9.1M shots available in 2Q.

The feds have committed to 35M doses for Canada in 2Q; that should mean 14M for Canada. And in 1Q they delivered significantly more doses than they had previously committed to. If they actually deliver fewer than 9.1M to Ontario, they are likely missing the national plan by 13M or so doses, and to me (again, personal risk assessment) that seems pretty unlikely.

The general idea that we will be in an excess supply situation by late May early June.  It means I could get vaccinated then...

[plam]

The general idea that we will be in an excess supply situation by late May early June.  It means I could get vaccinated then...

I think supply is slow to ramp up but that the factories should be getting into the situation where they can really just pump out the doses, so I'm not too concerned about the next few months. It's the next month that is going to be bad in Ontario. (For what it's worth, NZ is not really distributing vaccines to the broader public until the second half of the year, but it's less pressing.)

[tomh009]

Which part do you think is particularly optimistic? We're doing 100K/day at the moment, do you expect that to drop? That assumes 9.1M shots available in 2Q.

The feds have committed to 35M doses for Canada in 2Q; that should mean 14M for Canada. And in 1Q they delivered significantly more doses than they had previously committed to. If they actually deliver fewer than 9.1M to Ontario, they are likely missing the national plan by 13M or so doses, and to me (again, personal risk assessment) that seems pretty unlikely.

The general idea that we will be in an excess supply situation by late May early June.  It means I could get vaccinated then...

After all the disappointments of the past year and a bit, yes, it does seem fanciful at first glance. But the province has demonstrated the capability to deliver 100,000+ doses per day (more could be done given additional supply, though it's not clear how many more), and the supply now appears to be stable.

We should be somewhere around 50% vaccinated by the end of May, and hopefully better than that. At that point we should hopefully also have the new cases under control, as the number of potential hosts for the virus will have been cut by about half. But the climb down from today's active caseload will take quite some time.

[tomh009]

The general idea that we will be in an excess supply situation by late May early June.  It means I could get vaccinated then...

I think supply is slow to ramp up but that the factories should be getting into the situation where they can really just pump out the doses, so I'm not too concerned about the next few months. It's the next month that is going to be bad in Ontario. (For what it's worth, NZ is not really distributing vaccines to the broader public until the second half of the year, but it's less pressing.)

Given that NZ is not starting until the second half, is it fair to assume that they are not planning to open their borders until very late in the year, or maybe even next year? Other than for Aussies, that is?

[plam]

I think supply is slow to ramp up but that the factories should be getting into the situation where they can really just pump out the doses, so I'm not too concerned about the next few months. It's the next month that is going to be bad in Ontario. (For what it's worth, NZ is not really distributing vaccines to the broader public until the second half of the year, but it's less pressing.)

Given that NZ is not starting until the second half, is it fair to assume that they are not planning to open their borders until very late in the year, or maybe even next year? Other than for Aussies, that is?

Clearly this is of interest to me, so here's the updates. All this applies to quarantine-free travel. People can fly from Australia to NZ as of April 19; it's been possible to fly from NZ to Australia for a while now. People can already fly from the Cook Islands to NZ, but flying from NZ to the Cook Islands doesn't have a start date yet (maybe May, pending rapid testing being available there). NZers don't quite seem comfortable with letting Australians in, per the polls and per my spouse's experience in talking to people---95% are worried about it. But the experts say it's safe. I did invite two friends of mine who are expat Canadians living in Australia to visit but haven't gotten word back yet.

As for the rest of the world, no official word. Qantas would like travel to Australia to be possible in October, but their government hasn't said anything. Australia is vaccinating a bit faster than NZ but they were relying on AZ + Pfizer and have temporarily suspended the use of AZ, so we'll see how that goes. People seem to be complaining more about the slow pace of vaccinations in Australia than in NZ.

[danbrotherston]

See, this is why I find it optimistic.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/beta.ctvnew...85671.html

If they are preregistering 4 weeks in advance we are registering for mid to late may May but are still at 60+. I'm not even confident in June right now.

[taylortbb]

See, this is why I find it optimistic.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/beta.ctvnew...85671.html

If they are preregistering 4 weeks in advance we are registering for mid to late may May but are still at 60+. I'm not even confident in June right now.

The article says they're not planning to lower the age, but there's other criteria. Phase 2 is all about occupational risk, and medical history risk, rather than age-based risk. At this point basically everyone working outside the home (which is a majority of people) is in phase 2. So they won't lower the age, but they will add more and more groups as phase 2 goes on.

I also don't think the four weeks statement is fully accurate. Everyone I know that has pre-registered has gotten an appointment within two weeks.

[Bjays93]

TUESDAY 2021-04-13

Ontario reported 3,670 new cases today with a seven-day average of 3,868 (+86). 2,573 recoveries and 15 deaths translated to an increase of 1,082 active cases and a new total of 35,840. +9,272 active cases for the week and 124 deaths (18 per day). 42,167 tests for a positivity rate of 8.70%. The positivity rate is averaging 7.21% for the past seven days, compared to 5.91% for the preceding seven.

You've been doing a great job with all this tom and it's much appreciated (my go to for covid numbers at this point) 

I just wanted to mention though, that everything I've seen is saying the positivity rate was over a staggering 10% yesterday. 10.3% I believe is the number I was seeing.

[tomh009]

TUESDAY 2021-04-13

Ontario reported 3,670 new cases today with a seven-day average of 3,868 (+86). 2,573 recoveries and 15 deaths translated to an increase of 1,082 active cases and a new total of 35,840. +9,272 active cases for the week and 124 deaths (18 per day). 42,167 tests for a positivity rate of 8.70%. The positivity rate is averaging 7.21% for the past seven days, compared to 5.91% for the preceding seven.

You've been doing a great job with all this tom and it's much appreciated (my go to for covid numbers at this point) 

I just wanted to mention though, that everything I've seen is saying the positivity rate was over a staggering 10% yesterday. 10.3% I believe is the number I was seeing.

The Ontario government data I use calculates to 8.70%, which is bad enough. Admittedly this is effectively Sunday data, with a lower level of testing, but still terrible. It's possible something is off and it was actually over 10%, either way it's atrocious.

"Only" 4,156 new cases today (with 12,000 more tests) but the positivity rate still comes out to 7.67%.

[tomh009]

See, this is why I find it optimistic.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/beta.ctvnew...85671.html

If they are preregistering 4 weeks in advance we are registering for mid to late may May but are still at 60+. I'm not even confident in June right now.

The article says they're not planning to lower the age, but there's other criteria. Phase 2 is all about occupational risk, and medical history risk, rather than age-based risk. At this point basically everyone working outside the home (which is a majority of people) is in phase 2. So they won't lower the age, but they will add more and more groups as phase 2 goes on.

I also don't think the four weeks statement is fully accurate. Everyone I know that has pre-registered has gotten an appointment within two weeks.

And the 55+ vaccine queue is very short. We got our appointment the next day after (pre?)registering, and got our shots two days after that. Other people I know are getting theirs as walk-ins (Beechwood Zehrs was doing that, as I recall).

On the provincial level, over 112,000 people vaccinated yesterday.

[Acitta]

The article says they're not planning to lower the age, but there's other criteria. Phase 2 is all about occupational risk, and medical history risk, rather than age-based risk. At this point basically everyone working outside the home (which is a majority of people) is in phase 2. So they won't lower the age, but they will add more and more groups as phase 2 goes on.

I also don't think the four weeks statement is fully accurate. Everyone I know that has pre-registered has gotten an appointment within two weeks.

And the 55+ vaccine queue is very short. We got our appointment the next day after (pre?)registering, and got our shots two days after that. Other people I know are getting theirs as walk-ins (Beechwood Zehrs was doing that, as I recall).

On the provincial level, over 112,000 people vaccinated yesterday.

I am 67 and still don't have an appointment, though I pre-registered on April 1st. I also pre-registered at two pharmacies and neither have contacted me.

[tomh009]

And the 55+ vaccine queue is very short. We got our appointment the next day after (pre?)registering, and got our shots two days after that. Other people I know are getting theirs as walk-ins (Beechwood Zehrs was doing that, as I recall).

On the provincial level, over 112,000 people vaccinated yesterday.

I am 67 and still don't have an appointment, though I pre-registered on April 1st. I also pre-registered at two pharmacies and neither have contacted me.

If you're happy with AZ you could do the walk-in. I think the Pfizer supplies are much more constrained than AZ, resulting in longer wait times.

(We did our AZ at Rexall on Highland, and it was a quick turnaround to get an appointment.)

[Acitta]

I am 67 and still don't have an appointment, though I pre-registered on April 1st. I also pre-registered at two pharmacies and neither have contacted me.

If you're happy with AZ you could do the walk-in. I think the Pfizer supplies are much more constrained than AZ, resulting in longer wait times.

(We did our AZ at Rexall on Highland, and it was a quick turnaround to get an appointment.)

That is the first Pharmacy I registered at, but they haven't called me.