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06-11-2021, 12:17 AM (This post was last modified: 06-11-2021, 12:58 AM by plam.)
(06-10-2021, 07:44 PM)danbrotherston Wrote: Presumably Delta could be tested for using the same PCR methods that all the other variants are selected for.
And presumably there *are* some numbers for it given that the government is making decisions based on us being a "Delta hotspot"...I'm just wondering why we aren't seeing the numbers.
taylortbb mostly addressed it. We got lucky with the other variants in that there was a specific signal in the PCR tests that we're using that correlated strongly with an infection being one of those variants. No such signal exists for Delta. So it looks like the original variant with respect to these tests. But it's also reasonable to infer that if it looks like the original, it probably is Delta these days.
(06-10-2021, 07:44 PM)danbrotherston Wrote: As for boosters...I think that's a misleading term. The term booster, I've usually seen applied to getting revaccinated for diseases 5-10-20 years later, because our immune memory is not infinite. I don't know that we have a specific term for the seasonal flu vaccine we get, which is essentially a new vaccine every year as it protects against a different strain or variant of the flu.
I don't know if we'll need that, I'm not sure anyone does. The beginning of the pandemic, we seemed to see very little change in the virus, but now we seem to be seeing a lot more variants. I'm not sure why, I would have thought variants would be driven mostly by spread, but I didn't think spread was significantly higher now than in the first year of the pandemic. Perhaps our data is better and we are seeing variants more clearly but I don't think so.
In any case, I don't know how different the variants are from each other, especially in terms of their ability to evade our immune defenses (vaccination driven or otherwise), and how that compares with the flu.
I guess there are two questions here: boosters?, and why variants now. I agree that we don't really know if we'll need boosters in the traditional sense, too early to tell.
COVID comes with a natural checksumming technique which slows down the rate of mutation. But there's a guess that the variants arose in immunocompromised people who got convalescent plasma (https://www.scientificamerican.com/artic...e-systems/), so that the virus could be especially good at fighting the immune system in those cases. Sometimes with these things we are just lucky for a while, or there aren't enough chances for something bad to happen yet (remember, exponential growth starts slow).
I think the consensus is that Alpha is definitely more transmissible, and that all known variants are protected against by two doses of the vaccine. Delta seems good at avoiding one dose of the vaccine, which Canada should somehow be worried about, but perhaps there isn't enough Delta and the vaccine administration rate is high enough that people think it'll be OK as long as we continue vaccinating at the current (very fast!) rate.
(06-10-2021, 10:08 PM)danbrotherston Wrote: What I meant about how this compares with the flu is that each year the flu virus has mutated somewhat from previous years (and different strains are more or less prevalent), which is why we have new vaccines every year. But we also know that the previous flu vaccines are somewhat effective for new flu variants each year that the old vaccines were not specifically designed for--which is exactly what we are seeing with COVID. What I don't know is how effective the previous flu vaccine is with new variants. For COVID we actually have some numbers on this. But if we had this number for flu vaccines (and I feel like it must be known, or at least knowable), we could start to get an understanding of how likely we are to need a new vaccine every year based on what policies we already use for flu vaccines.
The flu vaccine just isn't very good, really. (I just got one for Southern Hemisphere winter, though I'm not sure how much flu will actually be an issue this year). We should be able to come up with better flu vaccines in the next few years. The other thing with the flu is that there are a lot of different viruses that cause the flu, so it's possible to target completely the wrong kind of virus. But there's only, to a first approximation, one COVID. And most flus mutate faster than COVID.
(06-10-2021, 10:39 PM)taylortbb Wrote: The PCR tests use fluorescing reagents that are keyed to specific genetic sequences. Assuming they're using PCR testing for the mutations, the actual test output is just a yes/no on the N501Y mutation.
Mostly agree. I think it was called an S-gene dropout that allowed differential diagnosis of Alpha, and that was just a happy coincidence, not something people specifically tried for.
(06-10-2021, 04:36 PM)ac3r Wrote: One reason our numbers are high is due to outbreaks. There are 29 due to a "congregate setting across multiple locations", whatever that means. I wish they'd be transparent about things. We're in a public health crisis and yet they withhold vital information to the public...
Turns out these may be things like homeless shelters/group homes and correctional facilities. Would be easier to just state that...
(06-10-2021, 07:40 PM)ZEBuilder Wrote: On the regional website where they report all the covid information they have a section related to variants and mutations. So the region reports the variants including the delta variant of which we have 14 cases of but the provincal government isn't reporting delta cases for whatever reason and Tom is getting his data for variants from the provincal data which is why there is no delta cases on his daily report.
All the quantitative variant reporting is pretty useless. The Alpha/Beta/Gamma processing is slow, and half the results are from who-knows-how-long ago, so about all we can tell is that Alpha is still the most common, and there are a lot of those.
As I recall, testing for Delta requires a full RNA analysis so it is substantially slower yet. Don't know why the province doesn't publish those at all.
Overall, we know Delta is impacting the case rates, but at least from my point of view it's not critical to know the percentage of Delta cases. The total cases (and hospitalization etc) tell the tale anyway, either we are getting this thing under control or not, regardless of the current set of variants.
I think we will get things under control, eventually. We just may end up lagging the province by a month or 2. As I said, I heard through the grapevine no Stage 2 for us until late July or August. The region needs to pull up its bootstraps and figure a way to get more people vaccinated. A lot of the ones getting sick aren't typical.
As I mentioned before, I think having our clinic on the extreme west side of Waterloo was stupid. Bad location for Waterloo, but not even a location in Kitchener. Relaying information to the public has also been poor. I got one flyer in a utility mailer regarding the vaccination program (on the opposite side of page -- I didn't even notice until I had tossed it). On the flyer the region sent out, it said that you MUST have identification (other than health card). Unsure why this was a condition. I do know when I took my mom to the clinic, we had to show the health card and ID to about 4 or 5 different people. So much better at the pharmacy with none of that BS.
Anyway, here is the 7-day total per 100K. Region of Waterloo is now solidly the top of the list:
• Region of Waterloo Public Health and Emergency Services 57.3
• Peel Public Health 43.1
• City of Hamilton Public Health Services 38.0
• Brant County Health Unit 34.1
• Thunder Bay District Health Unit 33.3
• Niagara Region Public Health 31.5
• Toronto Public Health 29.2
• Durham Region Health Department 27.9
• Windsor-Essex County Health Unit 24.0
• Halton Region Public Health 23.9
(06-10-2021, 04:36 PM)ac3r Wrote: One reason our numbers are high is due to outbreaks. There are 29 due to a "congregate setting across multiple locations", whatever that means. I wish they'd be transparent about things. We're in a public health crisis and yet they withhold vital information to the public...
Turns out these may be things like homeless shelters/group homes and correctional facilities. Would be easier to just state that...
That would make you wonder why the region to prioritize these groups, if what you said is correct. Especially if any are from the Women's Prison. If it's from shelters and group homes, same applies, but many may not have proper ID to satisfy the region, as mentioned in my prior post. The region should have made it easier for folks to get vaccinated. They rather opted for the most difficult route.
(06-11-2021, 11:24 AM)jeffster Wrote: As I mentioned before, I think having our clinic on the extreme west side of Waterloo was stupid. Bad location for Waterloo, but not even a location in Kitchener.
There's a lot more public health clinics than just Boardwalk and Pinebush. There's also the huge one at the pharmacy school in DTK, and I'd call King/Victoria pretty central to KW.
(06-11-2021, 11:27 AM)jeffster Wrote: That would make you wonder why the region to prioritize these groups, if what you said is correct. Especially if any are from the Women's Prison. If it's from shelters and group homes, same applies, but many may not have proper ID to satisfy the region, as mentioned in my prior post. The region should have made it easier for folks to get vaccinated. They rather opted for the most difficult route.
The region did, at least for things like homeless shelters. They sent mobile vaccination clinics directly to the shelters, and applied special rules for those without ID. However, this is also a group with significant vaccine hesitancy.
(06-11-2021, 11:24 AM)jeffster Wrote: I think we will get things under control, eventually. We just may end up lagging the province by a month or 2. As I said, I heard through the grapevine no Stage 2 for us until late July or August. The region needs to pull up its bootstraps and figure a way to get more people vaccinated.
Where is the evidence that the lack of vaccine doses in Waterloo Region is caused by laziness or lack of leadership at the regional health unit (or regional government)? You keep repeating this, but I have not seen any evidence for this. The decisions on vaccine allocation are made by the provincial government, not the regional one.
And now for some good COVID-19 news: Canada now has the highest percentage of population (among countries with 1M+ population) of people vaccinated with at least one dose, with 63.62% of total population. That's 72.8% of the eligible (12+) population, and still increasing at a good clip.
The increases in the first-dose percentage were 6.23%, 5.90%, 5.28% and 3.92% -- dropping, due to the shift in focus to second doses, but still solidly increasing. (UK was 1.38% in the last week and the US 1.00%.) I expect we'll hit 70% of the total population (about 80% of the eligible population) well before the end of June.
For total doses applied, the four weekly percentages were 6.74%, 6.64%, 6.85% and 7.41%, respectively, so the vaccination pace is still going up. Still, much work remains to get the second doses to people.
(06-11-2021, 11:24 AM)jeffster Wrote: I think we will get things under control, eventually. We just may end up lagging the province by a month or 2. As I said, I heard through the grapevine no Stage 2 for us until late July or August. The region needs to pull up its bootstraps and figure a way to get more people vaccinated.
Where is the evidence that the lack of vaccine doses in Waterloo Region is caused by laziness or lack of leadership at the regional health unit (or regional government)? You keep repeating this, but I have not seen any evidence for this. The decisions on vaccine allocation are made by the provincial government, not the regional one.
I think our poor covid-19 numbers are proof of. As for vaccine allocation, perhaps whatever we received should have had *some* focus on certain ethnics groups living in certain area's. Just now we're having pop-up clinics (Chandler and Vic Hills -- though Centreville-Chicopee should have been another site). Also regarding allocation, the region should have lobbied the province for more doses. While many here might not think it would make a difference, it likely would have.
But as it stands, we're now worst in the province. The worst. BTW: Not sure where I said "laziness", though leadership is lacking. Laziness in our leadership, sure.
(06-11-2021, 11:24 AM)jeffster Wrote: I think we will get things under control, eventually. We just may end up lagging the province by a month or 2. As I said, I heard through the grapevine no Stage 2 for us until late July or August. The region needs to pull up its bootstraps and figure a way to get more people vaccinated.
Where is the evidence that the lack of vaccine doses in Waterloo Region is caused by laziness or lack of leadership at the regional health unit (or regional government)? You keep repeating this, but I have not seen any evidence for this. The decisions on vaccine allocation are made by the provincial government, not the regional one.
This map is a bit outdated but as of May 31 much of WR was in the 40-49% vaccination rate for first dose while a lot of the GTHA was already in the 60-69% and one area even in the 70-79%
(06-11-2021, 02:58 PM)jeffster Wrote: Also regarding allocation, the region should have lobbied the province for more doses. While many here might not think it would make a difference, it likely would have.
A lot of places lobbied for more doses, none of them succeeded. Lots of organizations in the GTA lobbied to keep the hotspot-focused allocation going longer, they didn't succeed. I really don't know why you think the region would have succeeded, especially at a time where we had very low case counts.
Waterloo Region reported 67 new cases for today (17.0% of the active cases) and one more for yesterday for 63; 344 new cases for the week (+12 from yesterday, +52 from last week), averaging 13.6% of active cases. 392 active cases, +71 in the last seven days.
6,717 vaccinations with a seven-day average of 6,643. 55.97% of the total regional population (+0.50%) has at least one dose of vaccine, and 6.48% (+0.58%) has been fully vaccinated.
Ontario reported 574 new cases today with a seven-day average of 568 (-49). 850 recoveries and four deaths translated to a decrease of 280 active cases and a new total of 6,184. -3,275 active cases for the week and 115 deaths (16 per day). 28,949 tests with a positivity rate of 1.98%. The positivity rate is averaging 2.42% for the past seven days, compared to 3.31% for the preceding seven.
New case variants reported today (these are substantially delayed so they do not match the new case numbers):
Alpha (B.1.1.7): 1,190
Beta (B.1.351): 0
Gamma (P.1): 1
440 patients in ICU (-10 today, -82 for the week) and 489 total hospital patients (-198 for the week). Fewer than 50 patients outside the ICU now!
199,951 doses of vaccine administered, with a seven-day average at 166,585 (previous week was 138,693). 63.14% of total provincial population vaccinated (+0.45% from yesterday, +3.59% from 7 days ago), 10.42% fully vaccinated (+0.91% from yesterday, +4.33% from 7 days ago).
79 cases in Waterloo: 12.8 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
06-12-2021, 12:22 AM (This post was last modified: 06-12-2021, 12:29 AM by jeffster.)
(06-11-2021, 03:59 PM)taylortbb Wrote:
(06-11-2021, 02:58 PM)jeffster Wrote: Also regarding allocation, the region should have lobbied the province for more doses. While many here might not think it would make a difference, it likely would have.
A lot of places lobbied for more doses, none of them succeeded. Lots of organizations in the GTA lobbied to keep the hotspot-focused allocation going longer, they didn't succeed. I really don't know why you think the region would have succeeded, especially at a time where we had very low case counts.
I don't know, but I think there is a different between organizations vs governments. House of Friendship, for example, is an organization. Their ability to get certain things done isn't as easy.
Either way, though, the region failed at inoculating high-risk groups. I don't have enough information to understand 'the why'. But the raw numbers for sure show us that we failed - it's very clear.
When looking at Peel, we all know why they struggled. Same goes for Toronto. There is no obvious reason why our region would struggle. We should have been low risk from the get go, and we were until more and more vaccines became available. The general public, in RoW, did a great job.
One can also question Hamilton and London about their poor vaccine rollouts, though it seems they were able to target the right groups. We simply didn't. And I don't know why that is. I do look at the Task Force and I have to wonder if the best people were chosen, or if it was more politically motivated. It seems political. But I could be wrong. Probably am. I just look at the data -- and it tells us that we have done a piss poor job. If every other region is better than us, not sure what else I can say.
Regarding advocation: I do know a thing or two about these things. Easiest way to say it "squeaky wheel gets the grease". Another way to put it "Don't take NO for an answer". I have had to advocate for things, and sitting back and relaxing and waiting for an answer doesn't work. You need to line up all your ducks, throw everything at them, including the kitchen sink. You pest, and you bother, you ask 100's of questions. Eventually, the other sides say "f-it" and gives you what you need.
Do we blame our MPP's? Our MP's? The regional government? Our PHU? The task force? I don't believe any one of them is solely to blame. But as a collective, they are. We're better than this.
(06-12-2021, 12:22 AM)jeffster Wrote: I just look at the data -- and it tells us that we have done a piss poor job. If every other region is better than us, not sure what else I can say.
What happened? Original Covid started suddenly out competing B117? No way. The current variant testing doesn't catch Delta, so that's the signal of a huge Delta variant spike.
We may just have had the bad luck of being ground zero for Delta variant in Ontario. I can't find a comparative graph for other regions, but given what we know about one dose of vaccine not being very effective against symptomatic Delta, it would explain the numbers we're seeing without it being a poor rollout.
It's probably all of the above. Luck plays a role in these things. Waterloo wasn't great at advocating for more doses while things were relatively quiet, the rollout wasn't quite as good, and there was more Delta.
It's also kind of like why Quebec did so poorly in the first two waves and much better in the latest wave...
(06-12-2021, 12:22 AM)jeffster Wrote: I just look at the data -- and it tells us that we have done a piss poor job. If every other region is better than us, not sure what else I can say.
What happened? Original Covid started suddenly out competing B117? No way. The current variant testing doesn't catch Delta, so that's the signal of a huge Delta variant spike.
We may just have had the bad luck of being ground zero for Delta variant in Ontario. I can't find a comparative graph for other regions, but given what we know about one dose of vaccine not being very effective against symptomatic Delta, it would explain the numbers we're seeing without it being a poor rollout.
Exactly. All it takes is one person infected with Delta, and all of a sudden a region can become a hotspot. That is not something that a health unit can control -- and the province was directing vaccines to the existing (Alpha) hotspots.
