The COVID-19 pandemic

[jeffster]

Perhaps point out alternate reasons why we are bad as we are. I would like to know.

We're outliers in the number of delta cases, that's really the big difference. The delta variant is significant more transmissible, that's why it caused such a huge crisis in India. Waterloo is probably the biggest delta outbreak in Canada, and likely in North America. The only thing that could have prevented this is stricter border controls, or more vaccines sooner. Neither of those is within the control of local public health.

I'm not sure the majority of cases are Delta -- they are a factor though. That said, what makes US unique? Let's say, over Peel? Or Toronto? Why do we have so many homeless that are sick? Why didn't border controls effect every other region in Canada, and, really, North America as bad as us? And it's true, we did get a vaccines a little late, like other communities, but we have had them the past few weeks. It's still not explained.

And to be clear, I am not blaming this on front end staff -- they don't have control, and they only follow orders. That's why I keep going on about the leadership, I don't think it's been great, and there is little evidence to suggest that we have leadership that is high ranking among other regions and cities.

[taylortbb]

That's how it should work in theory yes, but to my point, we actually haven't used mRNA vaccines on a wide scale like this, there were hardly significant mRNA trials of any type prior to covid. So while this is how it should and likely will work, truthfully we can't know 100%. It's absolutely possible that there could be issues well down the road that we're unaware of. 

The problem with the "we can't be 100% certain" argument is that no one can ever be 100% certain about anything. No one can be 100% certain that they're not a Boltzmann brain, yet we obviously recognize it as absurd. To redefine the terms certain, fact, etc to mean a level of certainty resistant to brain-in-a-vat is silly, so they must have some other meaning that implies a reasonable level of certainty.

We can confirm that mRNA vaccines are fully cleared from the body within days, so it just doesn't leave a lot of room for long term effects. Between the exhaustive studies of mRNA vaccines, the similar method of action to other vaccines, and the fact that no vaccine has ever had a surprise long term effect, we really can be confident by any reasonable measure that there aren't long term effects. Leaving it as a "possibility" does a disservice to the actual level of confidence that we have.

The vaccines are not infallible, and the risks are not nonexistent, to say otherwise is disingenuous and doesnt help convince anyone. To acknowledge that there are potential risks and things we dont know, but present a well reasoned argument as to why those risks are far less than the risks of getting covid, that is the best way to approach the issue. 

I don't think anyone suggested the vaccines have no risks. Their safety being factual just means that which risks exist, and at what rate, are knowable facts. The risk of allergic reaction is real, but very small. It's similarly factually knowable that the risk of the vaccines are less than those of Covid, as the virus also has well studied risks.

When someone shows up and says "in my opinion, the risks are...." they're just wrong. The risks are what they are, and someone's opinion doesn't matter here. They're just plain wrong.

Alienating people immediately is in no way useful, and just assuming because of one comment or right leaning tendency that one is a trumpian conspiracy theorist is equally useless (I'm not saying you are doing that but in general I see no room for being a moderate these days and that's not conducive to a healthy dialogue and debate based environment)

I think there's a difference between how one should approach someone with genuine hesitation, and someone who shows up here constantly to contribute negatively to the community. Rainrider22 has long ago burnt out the "assume good faith" I generally apply online.

[taylortbb]

I'm not sure the majority of cases are Delta -- they are a factor though. That said, what makes US unique? Let's say, over Peel? Or Toronto? Why do we have so many homeless that are sick? Why didn't border controls effect every other region in Canada, and, really, North America as bad as us? And it's true, we did get a vaccines a little late, like other communities, but we have had them the past few weeks. It's still not explained.

And to be clear, I am not blaming this on front end staff -- they don't have control, and they only follow orders. That's why I keep going on about the leadership, I don't think it's been great, and there is little evidence to suggest that we have leadership that is high ranking among other regions and cities.

The regional dashboard makes it pretty clear the majority of cases are delta. https://www.regionofwaterloo.ca/en/healt...egion.aspx shows the number of cases that are "mutation/variant detected" and it has dropped sharply. There's only a small number of possible causes of that data:

1. original Covid started magically out competing the variants
   
2. it's delta (which currently returns negative on the mutation/variant test they're using)
   
3. there's a novel variant here which both out competes the other variants, and screens negative on the mutation/variant test they're using
   

Option 1 is obviously implausible, and option 2 is far more likely than option 3.

As for the border controls, the real question is why did they fail to prevent the Baffinland mine outbreak. That was the first big delta outbreak in Canada. How it spread from there to KW is just chance. Workers from that mine travelled to almost every PHU in Ontario, we were just unlucky enough that the one of the ones that came here had some interaction with a shelter resident. We were then doubly unlucky that we didn't get as many vaccines, due to having a smaller third wave.

While there's definitely larger trends, those trends are made up of tons of tiny random variations.

[ac3r]

We're outliers in the number of delta cases, that's really the big difference. The delta variant is significant more transmissible, that's why it caused such a huge crisis in India. Waterloo is probably the biggest delta outbreak in Canada, and likely in North America. The only thing that could have prevented this is stricter border controls, or more vaccines sooner. Neither of those is within the control of local public health.

I don't think we can entirely blame the borders. I mean, obviously it got into the country from abroad, but the reasons for our outbreak seem to be unexplainable. More people drive in and out of Waterloo Region to surrounding cities and towns every single day...so with that reasoning, our outbreak should be causing outbreaks everywhere from London to Ottawa. Trudeau authorized shutting down flights to both India and Bangladesh back in April and that was extended until June 21 (I don't know if that has since been extended again or not) so not that many people have been coming here from that part of the world. And anyone coming from those countries would be arriving in likely Toronto or another major city and would have to go to quarantine measures at a hotel anyways - as well as have negative tests before their flight and after arrival.

Given that most of the spread is between unvaccinated people (70%+ if I remember?), I am more inclined to blame the fact Public Heath has decided to make booking vaccines independent of the provincial system. It's a shit show trying to get a vaccine here for most people and that has allowed more embers to float around the country/province/region, setting off this chain of events. And we have not had the benefit of being a previous hotspot, so we were not inundated with vaccines like neighbouring areas. Toronto was at the point where they were begging people to come in and closing vaccination centres because nobody needed them, but here we have people waking up at the crack of dawn hoping to book one only to figure out 5 minutes later they lucked out. For whatever reason, we're seeing the blunt of this particular strain. The complete lack of contact tracing has left us all in the dark.

Edit: I totally forgot about the mine outbreak as well. As you mentioned, though, those workers travelled all over the country. Not sure if we can blame the shelter outbreak since it's <90 cases and most shelter residents are not interacting with the general public, where the majority of cases are anyways.

[tomh009]

FRIDAY 2021-06-18

Waterloo Region reported 55 new cases for today (10.0% of the active cases) and two more for yesterday for 67; 441 new cases for the week (-10 from yesterday, +94 from last week), averaging 13.2% of active cases. 542 active cases, +126 in the last seven days.

An average of just 768 tests per day for the past week, resulting in high positivity rate of 8.20%, although down from 8.40% a week ago.

8,980 doses of vaccine administered with a seven-day average of 7,765 (previous week was 6,656). 59.13% of total regional population vaccinated (+0.43% from yesterday, +3.16% from 7 days ago), 12.01% fully vaccinated (+1.05% from yesterday, +5.53% from 7 days ago).

bOntario reported 345 new cases today with a seven-day average of 411 (-32). 624 recoveries and one death translated to a decrease of 280 active cases and a new total of 4,110. -2,074 active cases for the week and 59 deaths (eight per day).  26,643 tests with a positivity rate of 1.29%. The positivity rate is averaging 1.93% for the past seven days, compared to 2.42% for the preceding seven.

New case variants reported today (these are substantially delayed so they do not match the new case numbers):

• Alpha (B.1.1.7): 228
  
• Beta (B.1.351): 2
  
• Delta (B.1.617): 13
  
• Gamma (P.1): 71
  

352 patients in ICU (-10 today, -88 for the week) and a total hospital population of 378 (-111 for the week).

210,638 doses of vaccine administered, with a seven-day average at 189,206 (previous week was 166,585). 65.25% of total provincial population vaccinated (+0.40% from yesterday, +2.11% from 7 days ago), 17.30% fully vaccinated (+1.19% from yesterday, +6.89% from 7 days ago).

• 85 cases in Waterloo: 13.8 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 29 cases in Hamilton: 5.0 per 100K
  
• 50 cases in Peel: 3.6 per 100K
  
• 13 cases in Niagara: 2.9 per 100K
  
• 7 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 2.6 per 100K
  
• 5 cases in Eastern Ontario: 2.5 per 100K
  
• 2 cases in Huron Perth: 2.0 per 100K
  
• 4 cases in Southwestern Ontario: 2.0 per 100K
  
• 22 cases in York: 2.0 per 100K
  

[jeffster]

We're outliers in the number of delta cases, that's really the big difference. The delta variant is significant more transmissible, that's why it caused such a huge crisis in India. Waterloo is probably the biggest delta outbreak in Canada, and likely in North America. The only thing that could have prevented this is stricter border controls, or more vaccines sooner. Neither of those is within the control of local public health.

I don't think we can entirely blame the borders. I mean, obviously it got into the country from abroad, but the reasons for our outbreak seem to be unexplainable. More people drive in and out of Waterloo Region to surrounding cities and towns every single day...so with that reasoning, our outbreak should be causing outbreaks everywhere from London to Ottawa. Trudeau authorized shutting down flights to both India and Bangladesh back in April and that was extended until June 21 (I don't know if that has since been extended again or not) so not that many people have been coming here from that part of the world. And anyone coming from those countries would be arriving in likely Toronto or another major city and would have to go to quarantine measures at a hotel anyways - as well as have negative tests before their flight and after arrival.

Given that most of the spread is between unvaccinated people (70%+ if I remember?), I am more inclined to blame the fact Public Heath has decided to make booking vaccines independent of the provincial system. It's a shit show trying to get a vaccine here for most people and that has allowed more embers to float around the country/province/region, setting off this chain of events. And we have not had the benefit of being a previous hotspot, so we were not inundated with vaccines like neighbouring areas. Toronto was at the point where they were begging people to come in and closing vaccination centres because nobody needed them, but here we have people waking up at the crack of dawn hoping to book one only to figure out 5 minutes later they lucked out. For whatever reason, we're seeing the blunt of this particular strain. The complete lack of contact tracing has left us all in the dark.

Edit: I totally forgot about the mine outbreak as well. As you mentioned, though, those workers travelled all over the country. Not sure if we can blame the shelter outbreak since it's <90 cases and most shelter residents are not interacting with the general public, where the majority of cases are anyways.

Right, none of our outbreaks make sense. I also agree that our regional booking system it lacking.

I have yet to hear about my first shot from the region, which I requested back in April. I ended up getting a shot of AZ (us Gen X'ers get shafted all the time...LOL) at Rexall. Once vaccines were available for young people, I signed up my son at both the region and my family doctor. My son got his first dose already from our family doctor, and he's now booked next week for his second shot (29 days). I'm still waiting for my second shot, though I asked my family doctor to put me on his list (as a AZ Get X'ers, we don't qualify until 56 days pass, which is this Saturday for me). Again, neither of us have heard back about our first booking. Though I am not thinking that this is the main problem though. The people needing to get vaccinated don't have the means or knowledge on how to get one.

The last update I read about (Dr. Wang, I believe) said that 83% of cases were from non-vaccinated people. Doesn't specify the other 17%, if they had 1 or 2 doses. No one seriously ill though, from those vaccinated. That does confirm that even if these are mostly Delta variants, the vaccine is very effective at preventing positive tests.

I am surprised that London and Hamilton haven't had more cases (though Hamilton isn't aces), since their rollout has been less than stellar as well, though maybe they have caught up in the last little bit.

[JoeKW]

Just check the pharmacy booking sites until an appointment pops up. Mainly sobeys, walmart and costco (no membership required).

[tomh009]

Just check the pharmacy booking sites until an appointment pops up. Mainly sobeys, walmart and costco (no membership required).

SDM has AZ available at Conestoga Mall and Erb St.

[bgb_ca]

Just check the pharmacy booking sites until an appointment pops up. Mainly sobeys, walmart and costco (no membership required).

if we got the first shot from the region can we get a second shot from a pharmacy or will they tell us to wait on the Region?

I'm currently waiting to hear back about getting my second shot rescheduled from the region and I have little faith they will reschedule in a timely manner. Meanwhile I know people that got their first and second doses from the pharmacy stream already.

[JoeKW]

The pharmacies generally don't care, as long as you qualify on the day of your shot but each pharmacist can make their own decisions and some have turned people away.

[ijmorlan]

The problem with the "we can't be 100% certain" argument is that no one can ever be 100% certain about anything. No one can be 100% certain that they're not a Boltzmann brain, yet we obviously recognize it as absurd. To redefine the terms certain, fact, etc to mean a level of certainty resistant to brain-in-a-vat is silly, so they must have some other meaning that implies a reasonable level of certainty.

We can confirm that mRNA vaccines are fully cleared from the body within days, so it just doesn't leave a lot of room for long term effects. Between the exhaustive studies of mRNA vaccines, the similar method of action to other vaccines, and the fact that no vaccine has ever had a surprise long term effect, we really can be confident by any reasonable measure that there aren't long term effects. Leaving it as a "possibility" does a disservice to the actual level of confidence that we have.

I like to imagine baking a cake. Now suppose I put in a different amount of flour and bake it at a different temperature, experimenting with the recipe. Obviously, it might be an improvement, or it might be worse. But do I have to worry about blowing up my kitchen?

Obviously, no, and I can say this because I have on some level a theoretical understanding of what actions are capable of causing an explosion. A bit too much flour in the mix and a hot oven aren’t going to do it.

Similarly, as you point out, the mRNA vaccines are cleared out from the body, and we know other facts, chemical and biological, about how they behave in the body. So there just isn’t a way for them to have hidden long term effects. A new formulation might be effective or not, or might even have some dangers; but huge classes of potential problems just aren’t reasonable worries.

[plam]

Here's the thing. Humans usually are swayed more by stories and emotional connections rather than facts. I personally believe that facts are really important, but they are of limited experience in convincing people.

There's also a distinction between the hesitant and the deniers. Honestly, I have no time for deniers. However, people who haven't been following and who are legit hesitant are worth reaching out to and understanding their concerns.

[jeffster]

Speaking of facts: Case fatality has dropped to 0.3%. This is an 87% decrease from January numbers (it was 2.1%).

[jeffster]

Current 7-day Covid-19 per 100K

• Region of Waterloo Public Health and Emergency Services 79.6
• North Bay Parry Sound District Health Unit 34.7
• Peel Public Health 25.3
• City of Hamilton Public Health Services 19.3
• Niagara Region Public Health 17.6
• Grey Bruce Health Unit 17.1
• Brant County Health Unit 16.8
• Durham Region Health Department 16.6
• Huron Perth Public Health 16.5
• Toronto Public Health 16.1

• TOTAL ONTARIO 18.3

RoW continue their upward trend, with no real sign that the trend will start to reverse.

Dr. Wang continues to blame the general population for our spike in cases. However, Professor Butt of the University of Waterloo has a good idea of what’s happen. He acknowledges that children are causing much of the spread, because they are less likely to be vaccinated (and quite often spreading to their household). Also, this is more common certain postal codes (N2C, for example) where there are higher population of low-income and immigrants. Many in this postal code have overcrowded homes, with many that struggle to understand public health directive (as outlined in The Record). Other high risk neighbourhoods include N2G and N2B.

In other news, which should be good: The region will have a new booking system launching on Monday. It would a good idea, if you haven’t heard back from the region regarding you vaccination, to rebook on Monday. Further to that, if you had your shot before May 30th, you can book your second shot this coming Wednesday. It’s also a good idea to spread the word to your friends and family, and perhaps post this information on the bulletin board at work, as it’s unlikely the region will inform its citizens of the changes.

[tomh009]

Just check the pharmacy booking sites until an appointment pops up. Mainly sobeys, walmart and costco (no membership required).

SDM has AZ available at Conestoga Mall and Erb St.

Got our second shots (mix'n'match: AZ followed by Moderna) this morning, walk-in at Queens Pharmacy. A bit of a long wait but then no waiting for an appointment.