The COVID-19 pandemic

[creative]

Thank you!

[jeffster]

I have no idea where you got those numbers, but they're wrong. https://www.toronto.ca/home/covid-19/cov...cine-data/ says 66.4% have "initiated vaccination" aka have one dose.

This was my link:

https://www.toronto.com/news-story/10310...n-toronto/

It has the EXACT information as YOUR link.

Look at the link you sent, again. Here is a screen shot of yours, followed by mine:

   

Mine:

   

Both have that 2,180,000 *different* people have gotten at least 1 dose. This is for a population of 2,956,000 (2019 Toronto estimated population). That is 73.4% of the entire population.

Let's go to RoW.

   

476,000 shots, minus 101,000 (because this is how many have had two shots), gives you 375,000. 375,000 out of 617,000 (2019 RoW estimated population) equals 60.7%.

Unless I am missing something in Toronto data.

From Global News:

“If you’re seeing that in your hot spots you have reasonable coverage, you should be able to then direct your resources to places that are that are their neighboring areas,” the University of Waterloo associate professor explained, suggesting the province has been playing whack-a-mole with the virus.

“The problem here is that if you don’t really vaccinate the other regions, you would see cases ending up in areas that are not hot spots. So you have to plan for vaccinating both the hot spots and the non-hot-spots at the same time.”

While the area lacked a steady supply of vaccine, Bogoch says that is not the only reason for local COVID-19 spread.

“What does it come down to? Probably several things. One is really good policy, really strong community outreach, really strong public health measures and involvement of the community with the with public health measures,” he explained.

“There’s also probably a bit of luck as well.”

https://globalnews.ca/news/7959199/water...-hot-spot/

Interesting that the region chose two locations in Waterloo, and one in Kitchener (literally 1 KM from the Waterloo border) for walk-in vaccinations -- with only the Boardwalk offering copious amounts of hours (12 hours a day) despite being the furthest away from hot-spots in the region.

One doesn't need to be a genius to see that our region is doing horrible. One doesn't need to be a genius to call out the region for its poor job. The evidence is all around us. Now businesses that hoped to have a summer have to wait until next summer, as we won't be in stage 3 through until September at best.

Again, this falls on our PHU. Despite what the apologists say here, we failed. This isn't just bad luck. It was bad policy that got us here.

We now make up 1/3 of new Covid cases in Ontario. That's an accomplishment that we shouldn't have got.

If you think we did a great job, show me the evidence. The evidence I have is the obvious numbers we have. You don't need evidence to walk out of burning home, you see the flames, you feel the heat, etc., that's the evidence. Here, we have the numbers, we know there are areas with low vaccine rates, we know that the region hasn't communicated with its citizens other than Twitter. But I would love to see evidence that shows that we have done a great job.

[jeffster]

Current 7-day Covid-19 cases per 100k

• Region of Waterloo Public Health and Emergency Services 75.8
• North Bay Parry Sound District Health Unit 47.0
• Grey Bruce Health Unit 25.3
• City of Hamilton Public Health Services 19.3
• Lambton Public Health 16.0
• Peel Public Health 15.6
• Public Health Sudbury & Districts 13.6
• Toronto Public Health 13.3
• Niagara Region Public Health 13.3
• Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph Public Health 11.5

• TOTAL ONTARIO 14.4

The region continues its upward trend. Hence why won't move to Stage 2 like the rest of the province.

[Bjays93]

Our numbers today are incredibly alarming

[jeffster]

Our numbers today are incredibly alarming

British Columbia had 53 cases today. Says something when a large province has less cases than a small region. Numbers reported by the province are always different than what the region provides to the public (I haven't figured out the algorithm yet), but the latest at 1:30 has us at 61 today. Not sure how that works out tomorrow in Ontario's numbers.

One thing, the region needs to figure a way to turn this around. With the rest of the province opening, the region is now going to really start losing a lot of business. And guarantee we'll be the most economically depressed regions in Ontario once we get out of the woods. We simply can't afford to be staying behind, but, here we are.

[tomh009]

THURSDAY 2021-06-24

Waterloo Region reported 61 new cases for today (11.7% of the active cases) and one more for yesterday for 65; 408 new cases for the week (-5 from yesterday, -49 from last week), averaging 10.7% of active cases. 519 active cases, -31 in the last seven days.

Next testing report on Friday.

9,535 doses of vaccine administered, with a seven-day average at 8,031 (previous week was 7,452). 60.85% of total regional population vaccinated (+0.23% from yesterday, +2.14% from 7 days ago), 17.77% fully vaccinated (+1.32% from yesterday, +6.81% from 7 days ago).

Ontario reported 296 new cases today with a seven-day average of 294 (-10). 384 recoveries and six deaths translated to a decrease of 94 active cases and a new total of 2,938. -1,452 active cases for the week and 52 deaths (seven per day).  29,514 tests with a positivity rate of 1.00%. The positivity rate is averaging 1.34% for the past seven days, compared to 2.03 for the preceding seven.

New case variants reported today (these are substantially delayed so they do not match the new case numbers):

• Alpha (B.1.1.7): 278
  
• Beta (B.1.351): 2
  
• Delta (B.1.617): 81
  
• Gamma (P.1): 7
  

300 patients in ICU (-5 today, -62 for the week). Overall hospital population, including ICU, is reported as 284, again less than ICU alone. I think I will just stop reporting this number.

225,188 doses of vaccine administered, with a seven-day average at 196,970 (previous week was 187,679). 66.42% of total provincial population vaccinated (+0.18% from yesterday, +1.41% from 7 days ago), 22.72% fully vaccinated (+1.35% from yesterday, +7.96% from 7 days ago).

• 95 cases in Waterloo: 15.4 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 5 cases in Lambton: 3.8 per 100K
  
• 19 cases in Hamilton: 3.3 per 100K
  
• 16 cases in Durham: 2.5 per 100K
  
• 4 cases in Southwestern Ontario: 2.0 per 100K
  
• 7 cases in Windsor-Essex: 1.8 per 100K
  
• 7 cases in Middlesex-London: 1.7 per 100K
  
• 17 cases in Ottawa: 1.7 per 100K
  
• 2 cases in Brant: 1.5 per 100K
  
• 20 cases in Peel: 1.4 per 100K
  
• 6 cases in Niagara: 1.3 per 100K
  
• 5 cases in Sudbury: 1.3 per 100K
  
• 14 cases in York: 1.3 per 100K
  
• 35 cases in Toronto: 1.2 per 100K
  
• 3 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 1.1 per 100K
  
• 1 cases in Huron Perth: 1.0 per 100K
  
• 2 cases in Eastern Ontario: 1.0 per 100K
  

[ZEBuilder]

This was my link:

https://www.toronto.com/news-story/10310...n-toronto/

It has the EXACT information as YOUR link.

Both have that 2,180,000 *different* people have gotten at least 1 dose. This is for a population of 2,956,000 (2019 Toronto estimated population). That is 73.4% of the entire population.

Let's go RoW.

476,000 shots, minus 101,000 (because this is how many have had two shots), gives you 375,000. 375,000 out of 617,000 (2019 RoW estimated population) equals 60.7%.

Unless I am missing something in Toronto data.

The thing you keep forgetting when looking at Toronto's data and any PHU's vaccination data is that people from other public health units can get vaccinated in them so there numbers aren't entirely reflective of the uptake in their PHU. For example someone from Waterloo Region goes to Toronto to get vaccinated that vaccination will show up as a dose given by Toronto Public Health so the number of doses given in Toronto isn't reflective of the number given to residents of Toronto. 

So the calculation you did to get  73.4% of the population of Toronto is vaccinated is actually incorrect since the total number of people given 1 shot in Toronto is residents of Toronto plus residents of other PHU's. On the image of Toronto's dashboard that you have it has a section for the share of Toronto resident that are vaccinated it says 66.4% have initiated which is for 1 dose, so you compare that to Waterloo Region which by your calculation has 60.7% with a first dose shows that we are only 5.7% behind, which isn't really that large of a gap considering we got alot less vaccines to begin with when the provincal government was prioritizing hot spots during the 3rd wave.

[jeffster]

So I just noticed this article from the CBC from June 17 -- parroting much of the things I have been preaching:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/kitchener...-1.6068513

What I don't understand, why haven't we tried those things yet? They know where the issue is, time to get the message out and communicate with your residents. There have been a handful of us here giving advice on how to get your first or second dose, but we really need to make sure all friends and family know, as well as co-workers and neighbours. I spoke with my neighbour the other night and none of her family have been vaccinated because they had no idea how to go about it. These are intelligent people. But if I wasn't so obsessed with Covid I wouldn't know how to get my shot either. Plus it helps that I am motivated, not everyone is.

I hope our case count goes down, but it won't until the region blitzes neighbourhoods on how they can get their shot -- and sets up clinics in more neighbourhoods, rather than concentrating them in Waterloo. Hopefully the region and province can work together to get this done.

'We have a big problem'

Councillors' suggestions Wednesday are aimed at helping regional staff reach people age 12 and older who have not yet received a first dose.

Coun. Geoff Lorentz said he felt traditional media aren't doing a good enough job at getting the message across.

"I think we have a big problem. We're not getting our message out," he said, urging people to call neighbours, friends and family to discuss getting vaccinated.

Kitchener Mayor Berry Vrbanovic's ideas were the inserts in utility bills urging vaccination, or ad-wrapping LRT to resemble giant needles with the words: "This is your shot, Waterloo region."

He also suggested targeted approaches to parts of the region hardest hit by the virus. Staff told him that had been done with both mail-outs and a door-knocking campaign, part of ongoing work.

Coun. Tom Galloway is concerned about a fourth wave and longer restrictions, "which is really going to crush a lot of businesses locally."

North Dumfries Mayor Sue Foxton said a direct approach is needed.

"We can't be nice about this. There's no soft sell," she said.

"You're not vaccinated, you're going to get it. Take the gloves off and stop being so damn nice."

I won't shut-up until the region starts doing what it needs to do. It seems that they DO know what is needed, it's just a matter of them committing to their ideas. Start getting those flyers out, spend the money that is required for this, spend the money setting up clinics in community centres. Make it easy and visible for people to understand where to get their shots.

Our summer is now screwed, but maybe at least get the kids back to school in September.

[tomh009]

FRIDAY 2021-06-25

Waterloo Region reported 34 new cases for today (6.5% of the active cases) and zero more for yesterday for 61; 384 new cases for the week (-24 from yesterday, -62 from last week), averaging 10.1% of active cases. 502 active cases, -49 in the last seven days.

An average of 965 tests per day for the past seven days for a positivity rate of 5.68%, down from 8.29% a week earlier. These are encouraging numbers from the region, though we are not out of the woods yet.

10,358 doses of vaccine administered -- first time over 10,000! -- with a seven-day average at 8,232 (previous week was 7,766). 61.05% of total regional population vaccinated (+0.20% from yesterday, +1.92% from 7 days ago), 19.24% fully vaccinated (+1.47% from yesterday, +7.23% from 7 days ago).

Ontario reported 256 new cases today with a seven-day average of 281 (-13). 293 recoveries and two deaths translated to a decrease of 39 active cases and a new total of 2,899. -1,211 active cases for the week and 53 deaths (seven per day).  26,561 tests with a positivity rate of 0.96%. The positivity rate is averaging 1.29% for the past seven days, compared to 1.93 for the preceding seven. 284 patients in ICU (-16 today, -68 for the week).

New case variants reported today (these are substantially delayed so they do not match the new case numbers):

• Alpha (B.1.1.7): 110
  
• Beta (B.1.351): 5
  
• Delta (B.1.617): 24
  
• Gamma (P.1): 0
  

246,393 doses of vaccine administered, with a seven-day average at 202,078 (previous week was 189,206). 66.61% of total provincial population vaccinated (+0.19% from yesterday, +1.36% from 7 days ago), 25.55% fully vaccinated (+1.48% from yesterday, +8.25% from 7 days ago).

• 9 cases in Lambton: 6.9 per 100K
  
• 39 cases in Waterloo: 6.3 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 3 cases in Northwestern: 3.4 per 100K
  
• 9 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 3.3 per 100K
  
• 3 cases in Huron Perth: 3.1 per 100K
  
• 17 cases in Hamilton: 2.9 per 100K
  
• 38 cases in Peel: 2.7 per 100K
  
• 3 cases in Brant: 2.2 per 100K
  
• 3 cases in Thunder Bay: 2.0 per 100K
  
• 7 cases in Sudbury: 1.8 per 100K
  
• 8 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 1.5 per 100K
  
• 5 cases in Windsor-Essex: 1.3 per 100K
  
• 36 cases in Toronto: 1.2 per 100K
  
• 5 cases in Niagara: 1.1 per 100K
  
• 7 cases in Durham: 1.1 per 100K
  

   

[jeffster]

Current 7-day Covid-19 per 100K

• Region of Waterloo Public Health and Emergency Services 67.9
• North Bay Parry Sound District Health Unit 45.5
• Grey Bruce Health Unit 35.3
• Lambton Public Health 22.1
• City of Hamilton Public Health Services 17.2
• Public Health Sudbury & Districts 16.1
• Peel Public Health 14.9
• Toronto Public Health 12.9
• Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph Public Health 12.2
• Niagara Region Public Health 11.6

• TOTAL ONTARIO 13.8

Waterloo Region trending in the right direction today. I am unsure how todays official numbers will affect the above.

North Bay Parry Sound and Grey Bruce are not trending in the right direction. Overall, Ontario is doing very well.

[jeffster]

Current 7-day Covid-19 per 100k

• Region of Waterloo Public Health and Emergency Services 65.4
• Grey Bruce Health Unit 51.2
• North Bay Parry Sound District Health Unit 41.6
• Lambton Public Health 30.5
• City of Hamilton Public Health Services 17.1
• Public Health Sudbury & Districts 16.6
• Peel Public Health 14.2
• Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph Public Health 14.1
• Toronto Public Health 13.0
• Niagara Region Public Health 12.9

• TOTAL ONTARIO 13.7

Small drop for the region and Ontario is starting to valley. Though for Monday and Tuesday, we should see further drops.

[tomh009]

10-day averages for key regions in Ontario, plus the weekly trend as of 2021-06-26 (posting this every Saturday).

Region	Cases today	per 100K	10-day average	per 100K	Weekly trend
Waterloo	39	6.3	58	9.4	-18%
Lambton	12	9.2	4	3.4	+419%
Hamilton	22	3.8	16	2.8	-5%
Peel	34	2.5	37	2.7	-41%
Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph	15	5.5	6	2.4	+80%
Niagara	15	3.3	9	2.1	-19%
Huron Perth	1	1.0	2	2.0	-63%
Windsor-Essex	17	4.4	7	1.7	+84%
Toronto	64	2.2	50	1.7	-17%
Southwestern Ontario	5	2.5	3	1.6	-22%
Durham	9	1.4	10	1.6	-43%
Ottawa	12	1.2	16	1.6	-53%
York	6	.5	18	1.6	-60%
Brant	1	.7	2	1.5	-71%
Halton	12	2.2	8	1.4	-40%
Middlesex-London	2	.5	6	1.4	-72%
Northwestern		.0	1	1.1	+50%
Sudbury	5	1.3	4	1.1	+65%
Simcoe-Muskoka	4	.7	6	1.0	-37%
Ontario total					-18%

[tomh009]

SATURDAY 2021-06-26

Waterloo Region reported 50 new cases for today (9.8% of the active cases) and three more for yesterday for 37; 376 new cases for the week (-8 from yesterday, -60 from last week), averaging 9.9% of active cases. 478 active cases, -78 in the last seven days.

Next testing report on Tuesday.

Next vaccination report on Monday.

Ontario reported 346 new cases today with a seven-day average of 280 (-1). 503 recoveries and 13 deaths translated to a decrease of 170 active cases and a new total of 2,729. -1,142 active cases for the week and 53 deaths (seven per day). 25,626 tests with a positivity rate of 1.35%. The positivity rate is averaging 1.29% for the past seven days, compared to 1.84% for the preceding seven. 227 patients in ICU (-4 today, -52 for the week). (NOTE: have switched to reporting COVID-positive patients in ICU given the new reporting data availability from the provincial web site.)

New case variants reported today (these are substantially delayed so they do not match the new case numbers):

• Alpha (B.1.1.7): 115
  
• Beta (B.1.351): 34
  
• Delta (B.1.617): 46
  
• Gamma (P.1): 115
  

That's the highest proportion of Gamma so far. The start of a trend or just a one-day aberration?

256,260 doses of vaccine administered, with a seven-day average at 208,224 (previous week was 191,807). 66.81% of total provincial population vaccinated (+0.20% from yesterday, +1.32% from 7 days ago), 27.09% fully vaccinated (+1.54% from yesterday, +8.58% from 7 days ago). Almost 4M people now fully vaccinated (though less than half of those are through the first 14 days yet), and the first-shot rate also seems to be stabilizing in the 0.20% range with the availability of walk-in vaccination clinics.

• 12 cases in Lambton: 9.2 per 100K
  
• 39 cases in Waterloo: 6.3 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 15 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 5.5 per 100K
  
• 17 cases in Windsor-Essex: 4.4 per 100K
  
• 22 cases in Hamilton: 3.8 per 100K
  
• 15 cases in Niagara: 3.3 per 100K
  
• 4 cases in Thunder Bay: 2.7 per 100K
  
• 5 cases in Southwestern Ontario: 2.5 per 100K
  
• 34 cases in Peel: 2.5 per 100K
  
• 12 cases in Halton: 2.2 per 100K
  
• 64 cases in Toronto: 2.2 per 100K
  
• 9 cases in Durham: 1.4 per 100K
  
• 5 cases in Sudbury: 1.3 per 100K
  
• 12 cases in Ottawa: 1.2 per 100K
  
• 2 cases in Leeds, Grenville & Lanark: 1.2 per 100K
  
• 1 cases in Huron Perth: 1.0 per 100K
  

Waterloo Region still second from the top but now not so much different from the other health units.

[jeffster]

SATURDAY 2021-06-26
Waterloo Region still second from the top but now not so much different from the other health units.

Noticed that Grey-Bruce isn't there, but they had 32 cases today.

Talking to someone from that area, they are hoping numbers remain on the high side compared to Ontario, as they're hoping that "Cidiots" remain in the city.

Apparently the damage caused from those from the city exceeds anything that Covid can do (much of it are serious accidents on Highway 6, drunk drownings, etc).

[jeffster]

I'd like to get peoples opinion on the Delta variant. What we do know is that it is more contagious than the other variants. However, it seems to less effective at getting people really sick. So while it is bad, it may not be as bad as the original Covid. Though one could argue that it's only healthier people and younger, in general, getting this illness.