The COVID-19 pandemic

[tomh009]

The "occasional screw up" is one major reason FOR the safety factor.

Getting further off topic here, but Colin Chapman's (founder of Lotus Cars) view was that a race car should be falling apart just after it crosses the finish line, otherwise it was overengineered.

One of the quotes attributed to him was that "anyone can design a bridge that will stand up, but it takes an engineer to design a bridge that will only JUST stand up."

Of course, one can add a safety factor after that, at least as long as one is not working for Colin Chapman.

[tomh009]

FRIDAY 2021-09-23

Waterloo Region reported 25 new cases for today (13.7% of the active cases) and one more for yesterday for 24; 160 new cases for the week (+5 from yesterday and -15 from last week), averaging 10.7% of active cases. 174 active cases, -39 in the last seven days.

An average of 802 tests/day for the past 7 days (down about 10%) for a positivity rate of 2.85%, almost identical to the previous week's 2.83% despite the drop in testing volume.

Seven-day vaccination average is at 1,381 doses/day (previous week was 1,184). 76.21% of total regional population vaccinated (+0.65% from 7 days ago), 71.31% fully vaccinated (+1.05% from 7 days ago).

Ontario reported 727 new cases today with a seven-day average of 655 (-10), compared to 724 a week ago. 814 recoveries and eight (new) deaths translated to a decrease of 98 active cases and a new total of 5,747. -492 active cases and 46 deaths for the week. 36,855 tests with a positivity rate of 1.97%. The positivity rate is averaging 2.14% for the past seven days, compared to 2.73% for the preceding seven.

167 people in the ICU, -1 from yesterday and -2 over the past week.

Seven-day vaccination average is at 35,410 doses/day (previous week was 31,477). 75.81% of total provincial population vaccinated (+0.66% from 7 days ago), 70.70% fully vaccinated (+1.02% from 7 days ago).

Cases/100K by regional health unit:

• 16 cases in Chatham-Kent: 15.1 per 100K
  
• 30 cases in Eastern Ontario: 14.8 per 100K
  
• 66 cases in Hamilton: 11.4 per 100K
  
• 13 cases in Brant: 9.6 per 100K
  
• 33 cases in Windsor-Essex: 8.5 per 100K
  
• 8 cases in Huron Perth: 8.2 per 100K
  
• 70 cases in Ottawa: 7.0 per 100K
  
• 8 cases in Lambton: 6.1 per 100K
  
• 83 cases in Peel: 6.0 per 100K
  
• 5 cases in Northwestern: 5.7 per 100K
  
• 15 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 5.5 per 100K
  
• 35 cases in Durham: 5.4 per 100K
  
• 28 cases in Halton: 5.1 per 100K
  
• 144 cases in Toronto: 4.9 per 100K
  
• 54 cases in York: 4.9 per 100K
  
• 29 cases in Waterloo: 4.7 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 19 cases in Niagara: 4.2 per 100K
  
• 19 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 3.5 per 100K
  
• 6 cases in Kingston Frontenac: 2.9 per 100K
  
• 4 cases in Leeds, Grenville & Lanark: 2.4 per 100K
  
• 8 cases in Middlesex-London: 2.0 per 100K
  

[danbrotherston]

The "occasional screw up" is one major reason FOR the safety factor.

Getting further off topic here, but Colin Chapman's (founder of Lotus Cars) view was that a race car should be falling apart just after it crosses the finish line, otherwise it was overengineered.

One of the quotes attributed to him was that "anyone can design a bridge that will stand up, but it takes an engineer to design a bridge that will only JUST stand up."

Of course, one can add a safety factor after that, at least as long as one is not working for Colin Chapman.

I mean, racing is different from building a bridge. The point of racing (or any performance test) is to exist on the edge, if that car doesn't fall apart as it crosses the line, it could have gone faster (we're kinda getting into a metaphor here), and those who drive the car know that there is a chance of ending up on the wrong side of the knife's edge. But a bridge has a different purpose and those using it have different standards.

That being said, the engineering profession is interesting, in theory the safety factor for structures like bridges has increased over time (as our tolerance for bridge collapses has decreased) but the reality is also that we are better at estimating loading and structural strength (we better understand these things) so are able to achieve these safety factors much more...precisely, leading to designs which have less safety in other ways (i.e., using fracture critical designs).

[tomh009]

Getting further off topic here, but Colin Chapman's (founder of Lotus Cars) view was that a race car should be falling apart just after it crosses the finish line, otherwise it was overengineered.

One of the quotes attributed to him was that "anyone can design a bridge that will stand up, but it takes an engineer to design a bridge that will only JUST stand up."

Of course, one can add a safety factor after that, at least as long as one is not working for Colin Chapman.

I mean, racing is different from building a bridge. The point of racing (or any performance test) is to exist on the edge, if that car doesn't fall apart as it crosses the line, it could have gone faster (we're kinda getting into a metaphor here), and those who drive the car know that there is a chance of ending up on the wrong side of the knife's edge. But a bridge has a different purpose and those using it have different standards.

That being said, the engineering profession is interesting, in theory the safety factor for structures like bridges has increased over time (as our tolerance for bridge collapses has decreased) but the reality is also that we are better at estimating loading and structural strength (we better understand these things) so are able to achieve these safety factors much more...precisely, leading to designs which have less safety in other ways (i.e., using fracture critical designs).

And I do agree with all of that.

[tomh009]

SATURDAY 2021-09-25

Waterloo Region reported 28 new cases for today (16.3% of the active cases) and one fewer for yesterday for 24; 153 new cases for the week (-5 from yesterday and -31 from last week), averaging 10.6% of active cases. 172 active cases, -68 in the last seven days.

The next testing report on Tuesday.

The next vaccination report on Monday.

Ontario reported 640 new cases today with a seven-day average of 629 (-26), compared to 719 a week ago. 794 recoveries and six (new) deaths translated to a zero decrease of active cases and a new total of 5,583. -812 active cases and 42 deaths for the week. 33,303 tests with a positivity rate of 1.92%. The positivity rate is averaging 2.04% for the past seven days, compared to 2.64% for the preceding seven.

153 people in the ICU, -14 from yesterday and -10 over the past week.

Seven-day vaccination average is at 36,647 doses/day (previous week was 31,333). 75.93% of total provincial population vaccinated (+0.68% from 7 days ago), 70.91% fully vaccinated (+1.07% from 7 days ago).

Cases/100K by regional health unit:

• 30 cases in Eastern Ontario: 14.8 per 100K
  
• 12 cases in Chatham-Kent: 11.3 per 100K
  
• 12 cases in Lambton: 9.2 per 100K
  
• 46 cases in Hamilton: 7.9 per 100K
  
• 28 cases in Windsor-Essex: 7.2 per 100K
  
• 7 cases in Huron Perth: 7.1 per 100K
  
• 9 cases in Brant: 6.6 per 100K
  
• 28 cases in Niagara: 6.3 per 100K
  
• 38 cases in Durham: 5.9 per 100K
  
• 58 cases in York: 5.2 per 100K
  
• 50 cases in Ottawa: 5.0 per 100K
  
• 69 cases in Peel: 5.0 per 100K
  
• 30 cases in Waterloo: 4.9 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 12 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 4.4 per 100K
  
• 16 cases in Middlesex-London: 4.0 per 100K
  
• 113 cases in Toronto: 3.9 per 100K
  
• 20 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 3.7 per 100K
  
• 20 cases in Halton: 3.6 per 100K
  
• 7 cases in Southwestern Ontario: 3.5 per 100K
  
• 11 cases in Sudbury: 2.8 per 100K
  
• 2 cases in Northwestern: 2.3 per 100K
  
• 3 cases in Leeds, Grenville & Lanark: 1.8 per 100K
  
• 3 cases in Kingston Frontenac: 1.5 per 100K
  

[jeffster]

Current 7-day Covid-19 cases per 100k

• Chatham-Kent Public Health 80.9
• Eastern Ontario Health Unit 72.8
• Windsor-Essex County Health Unit 59.1
• Lambton Public Health 50.4
• City of Hamilton Public Health Services 48.3
• Brant County Health Unit 45.7
• Niagara Region Public Health 41.5
• Ottawa Public Health 35.2
• Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph Public Health 33.3
• York Region Public Health 32.5

• Region of Waterloo Public Health and Emergency Services 27.9

• Northwestern Health Unit 14.8
• Public Health Sudbury & Districts 13.6
• Kingston, Frontenac and Lennox & Addington Public Health 12.7
• Haliburton, Kawartha, Pine Ridge District Health Unit 11.1
• Algoma Public Health 8.7
• Leeds, Grenville & Lanark District Health Unit 8.1
• North Bay Parry Sound District Health Unit 5.4
• Grey Bruce Health Unit 3.5
• Renfrew County and District Health Unit 0.9
• Thunder Bay District Health Unit 0.7

• TOTAL ONTARIO 29.6

[jeffster]

Current 7-day Covid-19 cases per 100k

• Eastern Ontario Health Unit 75.2
• Chatham-Kent Public Health 67.7
• Windsor-Essex County Health Unit 59.6
• Lambton Public Health 49.6
• City of Hamilton Public Health Services 48.0
• Brant County Health Unit 43.8
• Niagara Region Public Health 37.5
• Ottawa Public Health 36.6
• Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph Public Health 32.7
• Peel Public Health 31.4

• Region of Waterloo Public Health and Emergency Services 28.9

• Southwestern Public Health 13.7
• Haliburton, Kawartha, Pine Ridge District Health Unit 13.2
• Kingston, Frontenac and Lennox & Addington Public Health 12.7
• Public Health Sudbury & Districts 12.1
• Leeds, Grenville & Lanark District Health Unit 9.8
• North Bay Parry Sound District Health Unit 7.7
• Algoma Public Health 4.4
• Grey Bruce Health Unit 4.1
• Renfrew County and District Health Unit 3.7
• Thunder Bay District Health Unit 1.3

• TOTAL ONTARIO 29.2

[tomh009]

SUNDAY 2021-09-26 (sorry for the delay!)

Waterloo Region reported 27 new cases for today (15.4% of the active cases) and one fewer for yesterday for 27; 157 new cases for the week (+4 from yesterday and -21 from last week), averaging 11.2% of active cases. 173 active cases, -90 in the last seven days.

The next testing report on Tuesday.

The next vaccination report on Monday.

Ontario reported 653 new cases today with a seven-day average of 621 (-8), compared to 709 a week ago. 639 recoveries and three (new) deaths translated to an increase of eight active cases and a new total of 5,591. -805 active cases and 40 deaths for the week. 31,063 tests with a positivity rate of 2.10%. The positivity rate is averaging 2.00% for the past seven days, compared to 2.51% for the preceding seven.

151 people in the ICU, -2 from yesterday and -10 over the past week.

Seven-day vaccination average is at 37,743 doses/day (previous week was 31,446) -- up 20% week over week, which is really great to see. 76.02% of total provincial population vaccinated (+0.69% from 7 days ago), 71.07% fully vaccinated (+1.10% from 7 days ago).

Cases/100K by regional health unit:

• 33 cases in Eastern Ontario: 16.3 per 100K
  
• 66 cases in Hamilton: 11.4 per 100K
  
• 42 cases in Windsor-Essex: 10.8 per 100K
  
• 11 cases in Lambton: 8.4 per 100K
  
• 42 cases in Halton: 7.7 per 100K
  
• 7 cases in Huron Perth: 7.1 per 100K
  
• 71 cases in Ottawa: 7.1 per 100K
  
• 22 cases in Niagara: 4.9 per 100K
  
• 6 cases in Brant: 4.4 per 100K
  
• 12 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 4.4 per 100K
  
• 27 cases in Waterloo: 4.4 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 28 cases in Durham: 4.3 per 100K
  
• 55 cases in Peel: 4.0 per 100K
  
• 16 cases in Middlesex-London: 4.0 per 100K
  
• 4 cases in Chatham-Kent: 3.8 per 100K
  
• 109 cases in Toronto: 3.7 per 100K
  
• 41 cases in York: 3.7 per 100K
  
• 5 cases in Leeds, Grenville & Lanark: 2.9 per 100K
  
• 5 cases in Southwestern Ontario: 2.5 per 100K
  
• 13 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 2.4 per 100K
  
• 2 cases in Northwestern: 2.3 per 100K
  
• 3 cases in Kingston Frontenac: 1.5 per 100K
  
• 2 cases in Grey Bruce: 1.2 per 100K
  

[jeffster]

Current 7-day Covid-19 cases per 100k

• Eastern Ontario Health Unit 89.1
• Chatham-Kent Public Health 76.2
• Windsor-Essex County Health Unit 63.3
• Brant County Health Unit 56.7
• City of Hamilton Public Health Services 51.8
• Lambton Public Health 49.6
• Niagara Region Public Health 36.8
• Ottawa Public Health 35.4
• Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph Public Health 35.3
• Peel Public Health 29.5

• Region of Waterloo Public Health and Emergency Services 27.4

• Northwestern Health Unit 13.7
• Hastings Prince Edward Public Health 13.7
• Public Health Sudbury & Districts 13.6
• Kingston, Frontenac and Lennox & Addington Public Health 12.7
• Leeds, Grenville & Lanark District Health Unit 9.8
• North Bay Parry Sound District Health Unit 6.2
• Algoma Public Health 5.2
• Grey Bruce Health Unit 4.7
• Renfrew County and District Health Unit 3.7
• Thunder Bay District Health Unit 0.7

• TOTAL ONTARIO 29.2

[tomh009]

MONDAY 2021-09-27

Waterloo Region reported 14 new cases for today (8.1% of the active cases) and one fewer for yesterday for 26; 149 new cases for the week (-8 from yesterday and -21 from last week), averaging 11.2% of active cases. 169 active cases, -92 in the last seven days.

The next testing report on Tuesday.

Seven-day vaccination average is at 1,461 doses/day (previous week was 1,243) -- up 20% week over week. 76.47% of total regional population vaccinated (+0.67% from 7 days ago), 71.80% fully vaccinated (+1.14% from 7 days ago).

Ontario reported 613 new cases today with a seven-day average of 621 (+0), compared to 711 a week ago. 578 recoveries and no (new) deaths translated to an increase of 35 active cases and a new total of 5,626. -750 active cases and 38 deaths for the week. 22,633 tests with a positivity rate of 2.71%. The positivity rate is averaging 2.02% for the past seven days, compared to 2.43% for the preceding seven.

157 people in the ICU, +6 from yesterday and +1 over the past week.

Seven-day vaccination average is at 38,277 doses/day (previous week was 31,570). 76.07% of total provincial population vaccinated (+0.70% from 7 days ago), 71.16% fully vaccinated (+1.12% from 7 days ago).

Cases/100K by regional health unit:

• 26 cases in Brant: 19.1 per 100K
  
• 35 cases in Eastern Ontario: 17.3 per 100K
  
• 16 cases in Chatham-Kent: 15.1 per 100K
  
• 45 cases in Windsor-Essex: 11.6 per 100K
  
• 25 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 9.2 per 100K
  
• 46 cases in Hamilton: 7.9 per 100K
  
• 7 cases in Huron Perth: 7.1 per 100K
  
• 70 cases in Peel: 5.1 per 100K
  
• 48 cases in York: 4.3 per 100K
  
• 19 cases in Niagara: 4.2 per 100K
  
• 41 cases in Ottawa: 4.1 per 100K
  
• 117 cases in Toronto: 4.0 per 100K
  
• 5 cases in Lambton: 3.8 per 100K
  
• 15 cases in Middlesex-London: 3.7 per 100K
  
• 22 cases in Waterloo: 3.6 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 22 cases in Durham: 3.4 per 100K
  
• 6 cases in Southwestern Ontario: 3.0 per 100K
  
• 16 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 3.0 per 100K
  
• 10 cases in Halton: 1.8 per 100K
  
• 5 cases in Sudbury: 1.3 per 100K
  
• 2 cases in Grey Bruce: 1.2 per 100K
  
• 1 cases in Northwestern: 1.1 per 100K
  

   

[jeffster]

Current 7-day Covid-19 cases per 100k

• Eastern Ontario Health Unit 84.8
• Chatham-Kent Public Health 82.8
• Windsor-Essex County Health Unit 62.6
• City of Hamilton Public Health Services 53.0
• Brant County Health Unit 51.5
• Lambton Public Health 48.1
• Niagara Region Public Health 33.9
• Ottawa Public Health 32.8
• Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph Public Health 29.5
• Timiskaming Health Unit 27.5

• Region of Waterloo Public Health and Emergency Services 26.7

• Haliburton, Kawartha, Pine Ridge District Health Unit 14.3
• Southwestern Public Health 13.7
• Kingston, Frontenac and Lennox & Addington Public Health 13.6
• Northwestern Health Unit 12.5
• Leeds, Grenville & Lanark District Health Unit 9.8
• Renfrew County and District Health Unit 8.3
• Algoma Public Health 5.2
• Grey Bruce Health Unit 4.7
• North Bay Parry Sound District Health Unit 3.9
• Thunder Bay District Health Unit 2.7

• TOTAL ONTARIO 28.5

[tomh009]

TUESDAY 2021-09-28

Waterloo Region reported 17 new cases for today (10.1% of the active cases) and none fewer for yesterday for 14; 149 new cases for the week (+0 from yesterday and -30 from last week), averaging 11.7% of active cases. 172 active cases, -55 in the last seven days.

I am going to stop publishing local vaccination data because it's wildly inconsistent; maybe the data is not updated on the same day every week? Ugh. In any case, it ends up being meaningless.

Seven-day vaccination average is at 1,501 doses/day (previous week was 1,223). 76.56% of total regional population vaccinated (+0.69% from 7 days ago), 71.95% fully vaccinated (+1.18% from 7 days ago).

Ontario reported 466 new cases today with a seven-day average of 606 (-15), compared to 710 a week ago. 819 recoveries and nine (new) deaths translated to a decrease of 364 active cases and a new total of 5,262. -916 active cases and 39 deaths for the week. 23,785 tests with a positivity rate of 1.96%. The positivity rate is averaging 1.95% for the past seven days, compared to 2.34% for the preceding seven.

152 people in the ICU, -5 from yesterday and -3 over the past week.

Seven-day vaccination average is at 38,532 doses/day (previous week was 31,773). 76.16% of total provincial population vaccinated (+0.70% from 7 days ago), 71.29% fully vaccinated (+1.13% from 7 days ago).

Cases/100K by regional health unit:

• 15 cases in Chatham-Kent: b per 100K
  
• 31 cases in Windsor-Essex: 8.0 per 100K
  
• 25 cases in Niagara: 5.6 per 100K
  
• 138 cases in Toronto: 4.7 per 100K
  
• 6 cases in Lambton: 4.6 per 100K
  
• 25 cases in Hamilton: 4.3 per 100K
  
• 14 cases in Middlesex-London: 3.5 per 100K
  
• 7 cases in Eastern Ontario: 3.5 per 100K
  
• 18 cases in Halton: 3.3 per 100K
  
• 31 cases in Ottawa: 3.1 per 100K
  
• 19 cases in Durham: 2.9 per 100K
  
• 39 cases in Peel: 2.8 per 100K
  
• 14 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 2.6 per 100K
  
• 3 cases in Brant: 2.2 per 100K
  
• 6 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 2.2 per 100K
  
• 13 cases in Waterloo: 2.1 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 8 cases in Sudbury: 2.1 per 100K
  
• 2 cases in Huron Perth: 2.0 per 100K
  
• 3 cases in Thunder Bay: 2.0 per 100K
  
• 21 cases in York: 1.9 per 100K
  
• 3 cases in Southwestern Ontario: 1.5 per 100K
  
• 3 cases in Kingston Frontenac: 1.5 per 100K
  
• 2 cases in Leeds, Grenville & Lanark: 1.2 per 100K
  

[jeffster]

Maybe everyone is getting tired of updated data bases. Who knows.

My postings have been 7-day "unadjusted" cases 100k. It's not entirely accurate, but it has a few days lead on the more accurate "Adjusted data" (which itself isn't 100% accurate). The unadjusted case rate better reflects current trends. It normally trends more accurately.

[jeffster]

Current 7-day Covid-19 cases per 100k

• Chatham-Kent Public Health 83.7
• Eastern Ontario Health Unit 81.0
• Lambton Public Health 59.6
• Windsor-Essex County Health Unit 59.1
• Brant County Health Unit 57.3
• City of Hamilton Public Health Services 55.1
• Niagara Region Public Health 36.2
• Ottawa Public Health 31.4
• Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph Public Health 29.8
• Toronto Public Health 27.7

• Region of Waterloo Public Health and Emergency Services 26.4

• Haliburton, Kawartha, Pine Ridge District Health Unit 16.4
• Peterborough Public Health 16.2
• Northwestern Health Unit 13.7
• Kingston, Frontenac and Lennox & Addington Public Health 11.8
• Leeds, Grenville & Lanark District Health Unit 9.2
• Renfrew County and District Health Unit 6.4
• North Bay Parry Sound District Health Unit 5.4
• Grey Bruce Health Unit 4.7
• Algoma Public Health 3.5
• Thunder Bay District Health Unit 3.3

• TOTAL ONTARIO 28.7

[tomh009]

WEDNESDAY 2021-09-29

Waterloo Region reported 15 new cases for today (8.8% of the active cases) and none fewer for yesterday for 17; 145 new cases for the week (-4 from yesterday and -25 from last week), averaging 11.8% of active cases. 172 active cases, -55 in the last seven days.

Seven-day vaccination average is at 1,500 doses/day (previous week was 1,225). 76.65% of total regional population vaccinated (+0.67% from 7 days ago), 72.07% fully vaccinated (+1.17% from 7 days ago).

Ontario reported 495 new cases today with a seven-day average of 610 (+2), compared to 692 a week ago. 760 recoveries and eight (new) deaths translated to a decrease of 273 active cases and a new total of 4,989. -862 active cases and 40 deaths for the week. 36,404 tests with a positivity rate of 1.36%. The positivity rate is averaging 1.97% for the past seven days, compared to 2.30% for the preceding seven.

149 people in the ICU, -3 from yesterday and -13 over the past week.

Seven-day vaccination average is at 38,204 doses/day (previous week was 32,473). 76.26% of total provincial population vaccinated (+0.69% from 7 days ago), 71.45% fully vaccinated (+1.13% from 7 days ago).

Cases/100K by regional health unit:

• 18 cases in Lambton: 13.7 per 100K
  
• 9 cases in Chatham-Kent: 8.5 per 100K
  
• 33 cases in Windsor-Essex: 8.5 per 100K
  
• 10 cases in Brant: 7.4 per 100K
  
• 32 cases in Niagara: 7.1 per 100K
  
• 39 cases in Hamilton: 6.7 per 100K
  
• 19 cases in Middlesex-London: 4.7 per 100K
  
• 9 cases in Southwestern Ontario: 4.5 per 100K
  
• 4 cases in Huron Perth: 4.1 per 100K
  
• 39 cases in Ottawa: 3.9 per 100K
  
• 107 cases in Toronto: 3.7 per 100K
  
• 20 cases in Halton: 3.6 per 100K
  
• 9 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 3.3 per 100K
  
• 35 cases in York: 3.2 per 100K
  
• 5 cases in Eastern Ontario: 2.5 per 100K
  
• 15 cases in Waterloo: 2.4 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 33 cases in Peel: 2.4 per 100K
  
• 4 cases in Kingston Frontenac: 2.0 per 100K
  
• 9 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 1.7 per 100K
  
• 10 cases in Durham: 1.5 per 100K
  
• 2 cases in Leeds, Grenville & Lanark: 1.2 per 100K
  
• 1 cases in Northwestern: 1.1 per 100K
  
• 4 cases in Sudbury: 1.0 per 100K