11-03-2023, 02:45 PM
(11-01-2023, 10:37 PM)nms Wrote: So even accounting for the two year delay with the mid-2019 launch, the Region is conceivably well within the 2020-2024 (corrected to 2022-2026) window when 16 trains would be in the fleet.
We started two years late, so that would move the first phase to from 2017-202 to 2019-2022.
But we also lost ~2.5 years (2020-2022) to covid-19, so that first phase might 2019,2023-2025, and that pushes the second phase from 2020-2024 to 2025-2029.
2022 total year numbers were still -20% from 2019. This year we are looking at over +30% above 2019, but it's hard to say what growth would have been with no pandemic.
Up until 2013, GRT average annual growth rate was about 7.1%. From 2014 to 2016 ridership dropped because of larger than inflation price increases to the fares and construction disruptions.
2017 had +0.26%. 2018 had +6.71%. 2019 had +4.2% but only because of a huge fall bump from the start of LRT service.
This gives us a a pre-pandemic average growth rate of 4.8% from 2000 to 2019.
7% for 4 years is ~31% total, and 4.8% over 4 years is ~21%. That could mean that this year's huge increase in ridership over 2019 is really the pent up increase of each year since then from normal population-based growth to people switching modes that was suppressed by the pandemic.
That would fit, but is it so? How much does Conestoga College's huge increase in admissions affect this?
(11-01-2023, 10:37 PM)nms Wrote: Since I don't know how far in advance an LRV must be ordered, it might also be time to consider getting in line for LRVs 17 to 20.
Prior to covid-19 the lead time was generally 3 years for that sort of thing. Now, who knows. Stuff is still screwed up and many transit systems' orders are a year or more behind.