ION Phase 2 - Cambridge's Light Rail Transit

[tomh009]

Why ION cost estimates went up (and what to do about it)

By Michael Druker

The cost estimates for the ION light rail extension have had many scratching their heads. Transit construction costs have ballooned in North America and beyond, but right here in Waterloo Region we built ION Stage 1 for under a billion dollars, less than a decade ago. Why would the price tag be over $3 billion for a similar length extension? It’s a big question! In this article, we will try to understand the story of ION cost estimates to date. We’ll take a look at Stage 1 costs, the evolution of cost estimates, what can explain the changes, and what we should do about it.

An excellent analysis of the phase 2 cost escalation. My take from it is that the ballooning of the soft costs was largely driven by the use of the recent Metrolinx project costs in GTA, which have been massively over budget. And there is far more buffer (contingency) than there was in stage 1. My favourite chart from the article: