2019 Federal Election

[MidTowner]

I think 338's result is based on historical voting data plus national trends, not considering any local issues or candidates.

Hopefully the Record (or someone else) will run some local riding polls yet.

They're based on both national and regional polling, historical results, and also demographic information. They do take into account local candidates, whether there is a star candidate with an unusually high profile, and whether the candidates tend to under- or over-perform their parties. We've got at least three candidates who have run in the riding in the past, and the two front-runners have at least four elections between them, so that might be meaningful.

Riding polls would be nice. I could see a real pollster conceivably including Cambridge before the election.