2019 Federal Election

[MidTowner]

My point is that I expect they would win such a confidence vote, because no one wants to go back to the polls (not voters, and not the parties), and I don't think the Liberals probably will want to govern without a plurality of seats, even if they could, because voters could very well eventually punish them for doing it.

A plurality (the most seats) will not necessarily win a confidence vote which requires a majority.

But the point is taken, I have very little belief in the intelligence of the average voter.

No, of course a plurality will not necessarily win a confidence vote. If all 338 MPs show up, and all vote against every motion put forward by every other party, the party with a plurality fails on the throne speech. But I believe that a plurality will be given the support of the House (either explicitly or tacictly by some portion of one or more parties not showing up or abstaining). And that is because many or most voters believe that the party with the plurality should govern.

You might disagree with that belief, but I don't think it's because voters are not intelligent, just that they see things differently than you.

Edit to add: How many Liberal voters do you suppose are ABC voters? How many Liberal voters would actually prefer a Conservative government to a Liberal government which makes concessions to the NDP? Many, I would guess, the most common type of swing voter being a Conservative/Liberal one.