The COVID-19 pandemic

[jeffster]

This is a rather interesting article about the progress of the disease and what we can do about it:

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavir...9337092b56

It's quite good indeed. Some of the charts have made-up data and he has a lot of assumptions in order to get to things like the seven weeks to get to the easing of restrictions. But he does admit that he made those up, because the data doesn't exist -- or if it does exist, it's not accessible to the public.

I'll buy into his general concept. His numbers might be off by a factor of two, but even so, 14 weeks of clampdown would be something I could live with. And then the question is what the "new normal" will look like.

But, but, but. If we have uncontrolled, rampant spread of the virus in other countries (cough, cough, south of the border, cough) are we going to need to more or less eliminate travel as part of the "dance"?

I think travel restrictions would exist for a long time. And the governments would need to enforce richlings from using their private jets to go elsewhere without permission, because people with a lot of money generally don't give a f***. That could mean an escort to the nearest airport by the RCAF and if warranted, shot 'em down.

However, restrictions could end abruptly when a successful (or successful enough) vaccine is created - so we could be talking 4 months at the very least or 18 months at the most probably.