04-02-2020, 11:06 AM
(04-02-2020, 06:57 AM)MidTowner Wrote:(04-01-2020, 09:36 PM)danbrotherston Wrote: It is also probably that the death rate was undercounted. It's not clear by how much (far too much speculation, very little data), but it is likely the official count is an undercount.
As for NZ, travel is a likely factor for a plurality of young folks, but there are many many factors. Age and pre-existing conditions do not play a role in how likely you are to contract the virus--beyond that of behavioural changes--but in Ontario it does change your chances of being TESTED for the virus, where those who are in high risk groups are more likely to be tested, thus our positive rate will be more likely to undercount low risk individuals.
We also have a local custom of older individuals traveling to southern destinations for the winter, so I don't actually know how prevalent travel is amount different age groups.
What makes you think that this is probable? My assumption would be that the total number of cases would be extremely low- many people will be asymptomatic and never come across the health care system, and others won't be tested because of a finite supply of testing.
What would cause the number of deaths to be undercounted in a significant way? Besides a desire to outright deceive, I mean.
The biggest argument was that the cities crematoriums in Wuhan were cremating far far more people than usual, vastly in excess of the official death count. Lots of people died without testing.
https://www.businessinsider.com/wuhan-re...low-2020-3