04-09-2020, 10:24 PM
(04-09-2020, 04:49 PM)ac3r Wrote: The federal government projects 11'000 to 22'000 deaths provided we can guarantee extreme physical distancing measures and more over the length of the pandemic. The best case scenario - which I figure implies even stricter lockdown measures - projects 4'400 deaths.
There are new projections every few days. All of them are highly dependent on the infection rates. If the rest of 2020 averages the same as the current infection rate (1500ish) we will see about 400,000 infections, plus whatever in 2021. Significantly less than the projected 934,000, which averages to something like 3000 new cases per day.
The key question is the trend of the infection rates. They have dropped as a percentage of total cases but are still in the 1500 range. If the current restrictions are successful in bringing them down well below 1000 I don't expect to see significant additional restrictions. But if they keep creeping up and we end up hitting 3000 per day, it may well happen.