The COVID-19 pandemic

[taylortbb]

Having now extracted a bunch of data from the QC web site (should have practised my French more!) there are significant differences in the data:

• Positive tests, last 10 days: ON 2.6%, QC 18.7%
  A huge, huge difference as discussed

Might be a product of different criteria. In Ontario it's very difficult to get tested as a member of the general public, you have to be in a LTC facility, hospitalized, or a healthcare worker. Anyone else is just told to isolate and self monitor. If Quebec is testing the general public, or generally targeting their testing more towards groups likely to be positive, that could explain the difference.

Ontario, for example, I believe tested everyone in a LTC facility over the past week. Regardless of being symptomatic or there being an outbreak there. That's naturally going to result in a lot of negatives, and a much lower percentage positive, unless Quebec did a similar mass testing project.

I don't know what Quebec's criteria for testing are, but unless they're the same it's not a comparable number.

% of total cases recovered: ON 74%, QC 25%
How can this be? Is QC not tracking (or retesting) recovered patients?

I don't think testing recovered patients is generally done anymore. PCR tests will be positive long after someone is infectious, as they just test for fragments of viral RNA and not for viable viruses. My girlfriend was deemed recovered and sent back to work (she's a nurse) just based on symptoms, with no re-test. In Ontario as soon as one is 14 days from symptoms first appearing, and no longer has a fever, public health considers them non-infectious and ready to go out or go back to work.

% of hospitalized cases in ICU: ON 19%, QC 10%
Is QC ICU maxed out? Or why are there so many fewer ICU cases?

Different testing criteria may also be a factor here. If Quebec's criteria is different (and I have no idea if it is) they may be testing more of the mild cases that recover at home, so they'll see a lower ICU percentage of total cases. The fact that a higher percentage of tests are positives suggests to me they're doing more active identification of those likely to be positive, rather than just instructing them to self isolate.