06-10-2020, 10:15 AM
(06-10-2020, 08:19 AM)clasher Wrote: Might have to swing by and get some espresso.
In other covid news, this cbc article about reproduction rates is a little worrisome but as the article says there might be information that we don't have, and I'm not smart enough to understand all these numbers anyway.
He's talking about R0, but there is no way to actually measure R0 in practice, all you can do is estimate it. It's not clear what data he's using to come up with his number of 1.3. What I can tell from the daily data is that the number of active cases is dropping, albeit slowly now. To me this should mean that each infected person is infecting less than one other one, on average. But maybe this logic is not correct ...
The "counts and rates of COVID-19" map is useless as it shows cases since Day One, not what is going on today, this week or this month. What I can see from the local data is that the number of active cases has dropped 40% in the last 10 days (and 60% in the last 20 days). I would like to see better for all of Ontario, but Waterloo Region appears to be in better shape. (The testing really is quite low, but the positivity rate is admittedly also low.)