11-09-2020, 10:31 PM
Yeah, I said I would write something. I'm not feeling good about this. We all know how much new cases have shot up, but to me even more alarming is the inexorable rise in active cases. Active cases, in combination with the R0 rate, drive the new infections, and both are up quickly. New cases at over 10% of actives will drive this growth as cases cannot be resolved at this high a pace. (The average/median severity is lower than in the spring, but both hospitalizations and deaths have been increasing as well.)
The chart shows how we have been over this 10% level since about August (look around day 141) -- and that's where the rise of the active cases really started.
The other factor that I am really concerned about is testing and tracking. Our test positivity rates are now over 3%, from below 1% in the summer, indicating that we are not doing enough testing. Ontario is averaging about 35,000 tests per day for the past month, well below the test processing capacity, which is at least 50,000. Ford said he will increase this to 100,000 per day, but that would require tripling the collection of test samples, not just the processing of samples. Where is the issue? Are there capacity issues, and people can't get tested -- or not enough people are interested in getting tested?
And tracing ... I believe we are sadly lacking here. The smartphone app is good, but not enough people have it for us to be able to rely on it. Clearly we are not able to effectively trace the contacts, given how fast the infection rates are increasing.
The one positive note is that Pfizer's phase-three tests for their mRNA vaccine look very good so far, with 90% efficacy, better than I dared to hope, and no significant side effects. And there are still other vaccines in the pipeline, including other mRNA ones. We don't know yet how long the protection lasts, though.
Canada has an order in the system for this one so we should be seeing significant numbers of doses here in early 2021. Administering those on a mass scale will be a huge effort, but hopefully there are smart people thinking about the logistics of this already.
Still, I worry about the current situation, and whether we can control the infection rates enough for the next 3-6 months, until the vaccine can be administered in mass quantities. It's not Europe, and it's not the US, but we have a big challenge in front of us, even so.
The chart shows how we have been over this 10% level since about August (look around day 141) -- and that's where the rise of the active cases really started.
The other factor that I am really concerned about is testing and tracking. Our test positivity rates are now over 3%, from below 1% in the summer, indicating that we are not doing enough testing. Ontario is averaging about 35,000 tests per day for the past month, well below the test processing capacity, which is at least 50,000. Ford said he will increase this to 100,000 per day, but that would require tripling the collection of test samples, not just the processing of samples. Where is the issue? Are there capacity issues, and people can't get tested -- or not enough people are interested in getting tested?
And tracing ... I believe we are sadly lacking here. The smartphone app is good, but not enough people have it for us to be able to rely on it. Clearly we are not able to effectively trace the contacts, given how fast the infection rates are increasing.
The one positive note is that Pfizer's phase-three tests for their mRNA vaccine look very good so far, with 90% efficacy, better than I dared to hope, and no significant side effects. And there are still other vaccines in the pipeline, including other mRNA ones. We don't know yet how long the protection lasts, though.
Canada has an order in the system for this one so we should be seeing significant numbers of doses here in early 2021. Administering those on a mass scale will be a huge effort, but hopefully there are smart people thinking about the logistics of this already.
Still, I worry about the current situation, and whether we can control the infection rates enough for the next 3-6 months, until the vaccine can be administered in mass quantities. It's not Europe, and it's not the US, but we have a big challenge in front of us, even so.