The COVID-19 pandemic

[taylortbb]

Maybe yes. But looking at the quotes from the article, there are no guarantees here.

Eight months after infection, most people who have recovered still have enough immune cells to fend off the virus and prevent illness, the new data show. A slow rate of decline in the short term suggests, happily, that these cells may persist in the body for a very, very long time to come.

The research, published online, has not been peer-reviewed nor published in a scientific journal. But it is the most comprehensive and long-ranging study of immune memory to the coronavirus to date.

I think that's a pretty standard disclaimer on any recent discovery. It's published by a reputable group of scientists that specialize in this, on bioRxiv which is the standard place for pre-prints to go before they're published in journals (which is a slow process). It's definitely less confirmed than an actual peer reviewed journal article, and of course there's no guarantees except in retrospect when it comes to immunity, but it's (IMO) by far the strongest datapoint we have on this issue so far.

Anyway, first we need to get control of the situation before we worry about how many years of immunity a vaccination will provide.

That's my point though. Public support for getting control of the situation depends on people believing that the measures are worth it, and without support there's no compliance, and no ability to get it under control. If it was a virus we'd never be able to vaccinate for, then we might as well accept the deaths it causes and open up. We can't borrow money and hunker down indefinitely. But if we know that effective vaccines are coming, and that they'll bring a permanent end to the pandemic, then the calculation is very different.

Most of the anti-lockdown opposition I seen online these days takes the form of "we'll never defeat the virus, might as well get on with our lives". Data on vaccine efficacy, and durability of immunity, totally undercut those arguments. The fact we can defeat it, and likely within the next year, justifies the massive deficits that putting our economy on pause will generate.