01-20-2021, 08:13 PM
(01-20-2021, 06:42 PM)plam Wrote: Average age of car in the Canadian fleet seems to be somewhere between 9 and 12 years. There are going to be network effects too so I wouldn't be surprised at no gas cars left in 10 years.
I am generally really also skeptical of people saying "oh but we ship things across the world" without actually considering how low-emissions it is to ship. Yes, it would be better to emit less sulfur, but that's not as bad as CO2 (says the person who lives far from a port). There are of course also benefits to having less disposable crap, and of making things in Canada, sure.
9-12 is the average so many cars are older than that. I will personally be surprised if we reach 80% EV market share (of new cars, not the entire fleet) within 10 years. And in remote areas it will take much longer.
As for ships, bunker fuel is getting much cleaner. It was traditionally 4.5% sulphur, dropped to 3.5% in 2012, and it has been 0.5% since last year. Still higher than automotive fuel, but far cleaner than it used to be.