The COVID-19 pandemic

[danbrotherston]

FRIDAY 2021-02-26

Waterloo Region reported 71 (!) new cases for today (19.5% of the active cases) and none more for yesterday for a total of 65; 345 new cases for the week (+21), averaging 14.5% of active cases. 408 active cases -- back over 400 now -- and +62 in the last seven days.

An average of 1,623 tests per day for a positivity rate of 3.04%, substantially higher than the provincial average.

Ontario reported 1,258 new cases today with a seven-day average of 1,114 (+15). 1,007 recoveries and 28 deaths translated to an increase of 223 active cases and a new total of 10,294. -256 active cases for the week and 124 deaths (18 per day). 64,049 tests for a positivity rate of 1.96%. The positivity rate is averaging 2.45% for the past seven days, compared to 2.41% for the preceding seven.

In the past week there have been 92 cases (-7) of B.1.1.7 (UK), five cases (+4) of B.1.351 (SA) and one case (+0) of P.1 (BR) variant. The variant data looks very bursty so I suspect they are not being analyzed on a daily basis.

284 patients in ICU (+1 today, +15 for the week). Total hospital population of 684 (-6 for the week). Hospitalization numbers are no longer dropping, and I expect to see them start creeping up soon.

• 42 cases in Thunder Bay: 28.0 per 100K
  
• 274 cases in Peel: 19.8 per 100K
  
• 35 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 12.9 per 100K
  
• 17 cases in Brant: 12.5 per 100K
  
• 362 cases in Toronto: 12.4 per 100K
  
• 69 cases in Waterloo: 11.2 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 64 cases in Hamilton: 11.0 per 100K
  
• 104 cases in York: 9.4 per 100K
  
• 31 cases in Windsor-Essex: 8.0 per 100K
  
• 42 cases in Durham: 6.5 per 100K
  
• 32 cases in Halton: 5.8 per 100K
  
• 11 cases in Eastern Ontario: 5.4 per 100K
  
• 52 cases in Ottawa: 5.2 per 100K
  
• 25 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 4.6 per 100K
  
• 6 cases in Lambton: 4.6 per 100K
  
• 9 cases in Southwestern Ontario: 4.5 per 100K
  
• 19 cases in Niagara: 4.2 per 100K
  
• 3 cases in Huron Perth: 3.1 per 100K
  
• 4 cases in Leeds, Grenville & Lanark: 2.4 per 100K
  
• 2 cases in Northwestern: 2.3 per 100K
  

Only regions with at least two cases per 100,000 population

Our pandemic policy might be pessimal. Maximizing harm by maintaining high numbers of cases requiring long lockdowns and significant economic harm in addition to excess deaths from the pandemic itself.