05-22-2021, 04:26 PM
(05-21-2021, 04:44 PM)taylortbb Wrote:(05-21-2021, 02:36 PM)tomh009 Wrote: 5,860 doses of vaccine administered with a seven-day average of 4,325. At this pace, the dose count will reach 70% of the regional population on 2021-06-23 (-3 days). This date is now trailing the provincial one by 20 days (-3).
5,860 is the number of doses administered in Waterloo Region, not the number of doses administered to Waterloo Region residents, so I'm not sure it's the best metric for when we'll hit 70% of the regional population vaccinated. Some of our doses go to others, and some of our residents get vaccinated elsewhere. Previously this about balanced out, but with the huge spike I noted above it's now heavily biased to residents getting vaccinated elsewhere. We're actually at 6,385 Waterloo Region residents vaccinated yesterday. So I think we can move up the estimate for when 70% of the regional population will be vaccinated, as it's actually moving ~10% faster than the 5,860 number would suggest.
You are correct, in the last few days, a lot of regional residents got vaccinated elsewhere -- about 500 on Thursday.
On the other hand, in April, there were a lot more non-residents getting vaccinated here than residents getting vaccinated elsewhere: 5,724 more. So, to date, the difference is actually negative. If the current trend continues, it'll certainly move the date, but right now the real date is probably a bit later than the June 23rd estimate.