05-31-2021, 12:34 PM
(05-30-2021, 10:46 PM)tomh009 Wrote: Canada now has the third-highest rate of first-dose vaccination (as % of total population) of all OECD countries. It'll be second-highest sometime this coming week as we'll pass the UK. We should also catch Israel (later) as they have approved vaccines only for 16+, and they have a large percentage of children.
Second-dose vaccinations are well behind the US, though. Too early to predict the progress on those.
I'm estimating the eligible population (12+ years old) at roughly 87%. If that's correct, getting 90% coverage of the eligible population would mean 78.3% of the total population, and 85% of eligibles would be 74%. I do expect that we should be able to reach that 85% (74% of total) by late June or July. 90% (78% of total) would be great but may not be realistic. But either level should have us at something close to herd immunity, at least for the current variants.
I think we’ll level off at 80% of the eligible population, if things go well.