06-18-2021, 06:08 PM
(06-18-2021, 01:09 PM)taylortbb Wrote: The problem with the "we can't be 100% certain" argument is that no one can ever be 100% certain about anything. No one can be 100% certain that they're not a Boltzmann brain, yet we obviously recognize it as absurd. To redefine the terms certain, fact, etc to mean a level of certainty resistant to brain-in-a-vat is silly, so they must have some other meaning that implies a reasonable level of certainty.
We can confirm that mRNA vaccines are fully cleared from the body within days, so it just doesn't leave a lot of room for long term effects. Between the exhaustive studies of mRNA vaccines, the similar method of action to other vaccines, and the fact that no vaccine has ever had a surprise long term effect, we really can be confident by any reasonable measure that there aren't long term effects. Leaving it as a "possibility" does a disservice to the actual level of confidence that we have.
I like to imagine baking a cake. Now suppose I put in a different amount of flour and bake it at a different temperature, experimenting with the recipe. Obviously, it might be an improvement, or it might be worse. But do I have to worry about blowing up my kitchen?
Obviously, no, and I can say this because I have on some level a theoretical understanding of what actions are capable of causing an explosion. A bit too much flour in the mix and a hot oven aren’t going to do it.
Similarly, as you point out, the mRNA vaccines are cleared out from the body, and we know other facts, chemical and biological, about how they behave in the body. So there just isn’t a way for them to have hidden long term effects. A new formulation might be effective or not, or might even have some dangers; but huge classes of potential problems just aren’t reasonable worries.