(06-22-2021, 08:39 PM)tomh009 Wrote: At the current pace, we will be at well over 50% of the total Canadian population fully vaccinated by the end of July. Not to mention 75% of the total population (over 85% of the eligible population) with the first shot.
I'm not entirely convinced. We're seeing quite the slow down in first doses. I think we may hit effectively zero first doses before we get to 75% of the total population.
The current downward trend in first doses per day (7 day rolling average shown below) is looking pretty linear, at a decrease of 10k/doses/day/day. That would have us hitting 0 first doses/day around Canada day. I think in practice it won't hit quite zero, but we're only at 66% of the population with first doses and first doses are still slowing down rapidly, so getting to 75% will be tough.
If we implement domestic vaccination requirements, like concerts or restaurants checking vaccination status at the door, then it'll probably pick up. Most people aren't anti-vax, but a lot of the remaining people just don't care that much, and until they see some benefit in getting vaccinated won't bother.