06-22-2021, 11:35 PM
(06-22-2021, 11:12 PM)taylortbb Wrote:(06-22-2021, 08:39 PM)tomh009 Wrote: At the current pace, we will be at well over 50% of the total Canadian population fully vaccinated by the end of July. Not to mention 75% of the total population (over 85% of the eligible population) with the first shot.
I'm not entirely convinced. We're seeing quite the slow down in first doses. I think we may hit effectively zero first doses before we get to 75% of the total population.
The current downward trend in first doses per day (7 day rolling average shown below) is looking pretty linear, at a decrease of 10k/doses/day/day. That would have us hitting 0 first doses/day around Canada day. I think in practice it won't hit quite zero, but we're only at 66% of the population with first doses and first doses are still slowing down rapidly, so getting to 75% will be tough.
If we implement domestic vaccination requirements, like concerts or restaurants checking vaccination status at the door, then it'll probably pick up. Most people aren't anti-vax, but a lot of the remaining people just don't care that much, and until they see some benefit in getting vaccinated won't bother.
Yeah, let's soo how things go. More vaccine availability coming yet, easier access plus efforts to reach more people. I don't know that we are hitting the hesitancy barrier quite yet.