10-18-2021, 11:23 PM
These last few posts should probably be shifted a population thread. (or for that matter, keep the next paragraph here and move the rest elsewhere)
One question I would have with this development in particular, is how come its not fitting the model of the "everything dense will be within 800m of an LRT station" that all of the LRT proponents kept pushing? Aside from one GRT bus route there isn't much chance of bring more transit to the is corner (but what do I know?). Maybe it will be time to resurrect the old Berlin & Bridgeport Street Railway? If the crews dig deep enough, they might even find the old track bed!
As for population growth, I continue to be skeptical of the "growth will always happen" mantra. The Lancet Medical Journal (by way of a University of Washington Institute for Health Metrics study last year) predicts that the world population will peak in 2064 and Canada in 2078. The same study predicts a net loss of 900 million people between 2064 and 2100. The Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital predicts a peak by 2070 and decline of 400 million by 2100. The UN predicts a global date closer to 2100 with a growth rate close to zero. The UN predicts that Canada will be in a situation where deaths outnumber births for most of the 21st Century from 2035 onwards.* (I am not a trained demographer, but humour me)
But what about immigration? Well, for now, that's all that is keeping Canada's population growing. What happens when the majority of countries are below their replacement level for fertility. By the end of this century, 183 out of 195 countries will have fertility rates below their replacement level (with many countries in the world already there today). While there will likely continue to be displaced refugees from war, climate or other turmoil around the world, there will likely be a lot less immigration from the stable areas of the world which have generally driven much of our immigration (Most of Europe, India and China come to mind). In extreme cases, Japan is predicted to shrink from 128 million today to 53 million by 2100; Italy will drop from 61 million today to 28 million by 2100; China from a peak of 1.4 billion in 2024 to 732 million by 2100.
Finally, what happens should the current high-tech boom turn into a bust? The Region has seen it before when the factories shifted elsewhere between the 1970s and the 1990s. All it takes is better conditions elsewhere where people start building better mousetraps at a better price.
Or, perhaps more optimistically (or not) depending on your world view, the new push to remote work drives families and the working population to other corners of the province/country/world where there are other attractive elements (eg living in your hometown, closer to other family, converting your cottage into an all-season home etc). And, since we are dreaming in Technicolor here, the province has developed a great transit network where you can travel to door-to-door in under two hours to anything south of North Bay for a commute into the "head office" once a week on flex-time, or maybe less, and still be home in time to have dinner with your family.
One question I would have with this development in particular, is how come its not fitting the model of the "everything dense will be within 800m of an LRT station" that all of the LRT proponents kept pushing? Aside from one GRT bus route there isn't much chance of bring more transit to the is corner (but what do I know?). Maybe it will be time to resurrect the old Berlin & Bridgeport Street Railway? If the crews dig deep enough, they might even find the old track bed!
As for population growth, I continue to be skeptical of the "growth will always happen" mantra. The Lancet Medical Journal (by way of a University of Washington Institute for Health Metrics study last year) predicts that the world population will peak in 2064 and Canada in 2078. The same study predicts a net loss of 900 million people between 2064 and 2100. The Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital predicts a peak by 2070 and decline of 400 million by 2100. The UN predicts a global date closer to 2100 with a growth rate close to zero. The UN predicts that Canada will be in a situation where deaths outnumber births for most of the 21st Century from 2035 onwards.* (I am not a trained demographer, but humour me)
But what about immigration? Well, for now, that's all that is keeping Canada's population growing. What happens when the majority of countries are below their replacement level for fertility. By the end of this century, 183 out of 195 countries will have fertility rates below their replacement level (with many countries in the world already there today). While there will likely continue to be displaced refugees from war, climate or other turmoil around the world, there will likely be a lot less immigration from the stable areas of the world which have generally driven much of our immigration (Most of Europe, India and China come to mind). In extreme cases, Japan is predicted to shrink from 128 million today to 53 million by 2100; Italy will drop from 61 million today to 28 million by 2100; China from a peak of 1.4 billion in 2024 to 732 million by 2100.
Finally, what happens should the current high-tech boom turn into a bust? The Region has seen it before when the factories shifted elsewhere between the 1970s and the 1990s. All it takes is better conditions elsewhere where people start building better mousetraps at a better price.
Or, perhaps more optimistically (or not) depending on your world view, the new push to remote work drives families and the working population to other corners of the province/country/world where there are other attractive elements (eg living in your hometown, closer to other family, converting your cottage into an all-season home etc). And, since we are dreaming in Technicolor here, the province has developed a great transit network where you can travel to door-to-door in under two hours to anything south of North Bay for a commute into the "head office" once a week on flex-time, or maybe less, and still be home in time to have dinner with your family.