The COVID-19 pandemic

[tomh009]

Now that we have yesterday's Ontario data ...

FRIDAY 2020-12-25

No data from Waterloo Region -- maybe on Sunday?

Ontario reported 2,159 new cases today -- below the seven-day average for a change -- with a seven-day average of 2,287 (-19). 2,237 recoveries and 43 deaths translated to a drop of 121 active cases (the first one in two weeks), and a current total of 19,688. +1,946 active cases for the week and 223 deaths. No test data was released.

280 patients in ICU (+3) and a total hospital population of 998 (+121 in the past seven days).

• 135 cases in Windsor-Essex: 34.7 per 100K
  
• 385 cases in Peel: 27.9 per 100K
  
• 68 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 25.0 per 100K
  
• 616 cases in Toronto: 21.0 per 100K
  
• 213 cases in York: 19.2 per 100K
  
• 96 cases in Halton: 17.5 per 100K
  
• 78 cases in Niagara: 17.4 per 100K
  
• 105 cases in Waterloo: 17.0 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 16 cases in Huron Perth: 16.3 per 100K
  
• 31 cases in Southwestern: 15.5 per 100K
  
• 93 cases in Durham: 14.4 per 100K
  
• 77 cases in Hamilton: 13.3 per 100K
  
• 44 cases in Middlesex-London: 10.9 per 100K
  
• 51 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 9.4 per 100K
  
• 17 cases in Eastern Ontario: 8.4 per 100K
  
• 10 cases in Thunder Bay: 6.7 per 100K
  
• 54 cases in Ottawa: 5.4 per 100K
  
• 7 cases in Kingston Frontenac: 3.4 per 100K
  

[tomh009]

SATURDAY 2020-12-26

No data from Waterloo Region -- maybe on Sunday?

Ontario reported 2,142 new cases today -- a second day below the seven-day average -- with a seven-day average of 2,257 (-30). 1,913 recoveries and 38 deaths translated to an increase drop of 191 active cases and a current total of 19,879. +1,672 active cases for the week and 234 deaths (33 per day). No test data was released.

286 patients in ICU (+6).

• 131 cases in Windsor-Essex: 33.7 per 100K
  
• 28 cases in Huron Perth: 28.6 per 100K
  
• 344 cases in Peel: 24.9 per 100K
  
• 262 cases in York: 23.6 per 100K
  
• 136 cases in Hamilton: 23.5 per 100K
  
• 93 cases in Niagara: 20.8 per 100K
  
• 541 cases in Toronto: 18.5 per 100K
  
• 93 cases in Halton: 17.0 per 100K
  
• 44 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 16.2 per 100K
  
• 17 cases in Brant County: 12.5 per 100K
  
• 50 cases in Middlesex-London: 12.4 per 100K
  
• 24 cases in Southwestern: 12.0 per 100K
  
• 67 cases in Waterloo: 10.8 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 67 cases in Durham: 10.4 per 100K
  
• 52 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 9.6 per 100K
  
• 18 cases in Eastern Ontario: 8.9 per 100K
  
• 74 cases in Ottawa: 7.4 per 100K
  
• 13 cases in Kingston Frontenac: 6.4 per 100K
  
• 4 cases in Thunder Bay: 2.7 per 100K
  

[danbrotherston]

SATURDAY 2020-12-26

No data from Waterloo Region -- maybe on Sunday?

Ontario reported 2,142 new cases today -- a second day below the seven-day average -- with a seven-day average of 2,257 (-30). 1,913 recoveries and 38 deaths translated to an increase drop of 191 active cases and a current total of 19,879. +1,672 active cases for the week and 234 deaths (33 per day). No test data was released.

286 patients in ICU (+6).

• 131 cases in Windsor-Essex: 33.7 per 100K
  
• 28 cases in Huron Perth: 28.6 per 100K
  
• 344 cases in Peel: 24.9 per 100K
  
• 262 cases in York: 23.6 per 100K
  
• 136 cases in Hamilton: 23.5 per 100K
  
• 93 cases in Niagara: 20.8 per 100K
  
• 541 cases in Toronto: 18.5 per 100K
  
• 93 cases in Halton: 17.0 per 100K
  
• 44 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 16.2 per 100K
  
• 17 cases in Brant County: 12.5 per 100K
  
• 50 cases in Middlesex-London: 12.4 per 100K
  
• 24 cases in Southwestern: 12.0 per 100K
  
• 67 cases in Waterloo: 10.8 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 67 cases in Durham: 10.4 per 100K
  
• 52 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 9.6 per 100K
  
• 18 cases in Eastern Ontario: 8.9 per 100K
  
• 74 cases in Ottawa: 7.4 per 100K
  
• 13 cases in Kingston Frontenac: 6.4 per 100K
  
• 4 cases in Thunder Bay: 2.7 per 100K
  

No data on testing?

I wonder what effect the holiday will have on testing, I suspect people would delay getting tested during the holiday.  Even more cynically, I suspect people may delay getting tested during the holiday because they were busy infecting their extended family.

[tomh009]

SATURDAY 2020-12-26

No data from Waterloo Region -- maybe on Sunday?

Ontario reported 2,142 new cases today -- a second day below the seven-day average -- with a seven-day average of 2,257 (-30). 1,913 recoveries and 38 deaths translated to an increase drop of 191 active cases and a current total of 19,879. +1,672 active cases for the week and 234 deaths (33 per day). No test data was released.

No data on testing?

I wonder what effect the holiday will have on testing, I suspect people would delay getting tested during the holiday.  Even more cynically, I suspect people may delay getting tested during the holiday because they were busy infecting their extended family.

None for yesterday or today. Since the province reports cumulative totals, we'll see it sooner or later but it may or may not be broken out by date.

Christmas testing will surely be lighter, as normal weekends are already substantially lighter testing activity than weekdays.

That said, the moment of truth for the Christmas infections will come a week or so from now. But, anecdotally, I only know one person who met the family for Christmas, and that person lives alone (and self-isolated for two weeks in advance). I hope my anecdotal data points at least somewhat mirror the rest of the region ... but I am not really optimistic.

[danbrotherston]

No data on testing?

I wonder what effect the holiday will have on testing, I suspect people would delay getting tested during the holiday.  Even more cynically, I suspect people may delay getting tested during the holiday because they were busy infecting their extended family.

None for yesterday or today. Since the province reports cumulative totals, we'll see it sooner or later but it may or may not be broken out by date.

Christmas testing will surely be lighter, as normal weekends are already substantially lighter testing activity than weekdays.

That said, the moment of truth for the Christmas infections will come a week or so from now. But, anecdotally, I only know one person who met the family for Christmas, and that person lives alone (and self-isolated for two weeks in advance). I hope my anecdotal data points at least somewhat mirror the rest of the region ... but I am not really optimistic.

You're definitely right about that. And I am in a similar situation, everyone I know was either didn't see family, or was a single person living alone who isolated (and in some cases got tested) before visiting their family. But ultimately, like many things in life, I suspect I do not see typical behaviour in my social group. It leads to some very negative opinions about people in general.

[ac3r]

Next update will be today and will include Christmas/Boxing Day. Similarly, NYE won't be updated until after January 1st: https://www.kitchenertoday.com/coronavir...ay-3215461

We'll have to see what the numbers are like in a week or two. On my street, I can definitely say I saw quite a lot of cars parked outside other houses on Christmas so I know some people were definitely gathering. Admittedly, I did, but only with family that I live nextdoor to who I see almost daily and we all work from home right now so we were pretty confident it was fine.

[tomh009]

SUNDAY 2020-12-27

Waterloo Region reported an average of 68 new cases for the past three days (10.8% of the active cases per day). 567 new cases for the week (-74), averaging 13.2% of active cases. 613 active cases, +24 in the last seven days.

Next testing report on Tuesday.

Ontario reported 2,005 new cases today -- still below the seven-day average -- with a seven-day average of 2,212 (-45). 2,005 recoveries and 18 deaths translated to a drop of 18 active cases and a current total of 19,861. +1,294 active cases for the week and 227 deaths (32 per day). 41,783 tests for a 4.80% positivity rate. Positivity is averaging 4.21% for the past seven days (low testing during the holidays) as compared to 3.98% the week before.

285 patients in ICU (-1).

• 140 cases in Windsor-Essex: 36.0 per 100K
  
• 331 cases in Peel: 24.0 per 100K
  
• 20 cases in Huron Perth: 20.4 per 100K
  
• 572 cases in Toronto: 19.5 per 100K
  
• 207 cases in York: 18.6 per 100K
  
• 83 cases in Niagara: 18.5 per 100K
  
• 80 cases in Halton: 14.6 per 100K
  
• 89 cases in Waterloo: 14.4 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 28 cases in Southwestern Ontario: 14.0 per 100K
  
• 53 cases in Middlesex-London: 13.1 per 100K
  
• 74 cases in Hamilton: 12.8 per 100K
  
• 34 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 12.5 per 100K
  
• 71 cases in Durham: 11.0 per 100K
  
• 18 cases in Eastern Ontario: 8.9 per 100K
  
• 11 cases in Brant County: 8.1 per 100K
  
• 41 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 7.6 per 100K
  
• 49 cases in Ottawa: 4.9 per 100K
  

[ac3r]

The daily numbers are as follows, since the previous post only averages them: 57 today, 64 yesterday and 83 Friday.

[tomh009]

The daily numbers are as follows, since the previous post only averages them: 57 today, 64 yesterday and 83 Friday.

Where did you find those? The region's dashboard only gave the total for the three days.

[tomh009]

The province recently started publishing their estimates of Re (effective reproduction number), which indicates how many other people an infected person spreads the disease to, on average. The numbers were very high in April, and then in the spike in September, but recently are closer to 1.0 (less than one is good!).

I did compare their estimates to the number of new cases as a % of actives, which I have been calculating daily for the last nine months. And the correlation between the two, in terms of direction, is quite good, so either one can work as an indicator.

   

[tomh009]

MONDAY 2020-12-28

Waterloo Region reported 54 new cases today (8.8% of the active cases).  538 new cases for the week (-29), averaging 12.4% of active cases. 571 active cases, -38 in the last seven days.

Next testing report on Tuesday.

Ontario reported 1,939 new cases today -- below 2,000, but with quite low testing activity due to holidays -- with a seven-day average of 2,186 (-71). 2,189 recoveries and 37 deaths translated to a drop of 249 active cases and a current total of 19,612. +593 active cases for the week and 247 deaths (35 per day).

296 patients in ICU (+11).

• 178 cases in Windsor-Essex: 45.8 per 100K
  
• 475 cases in Peel: 34.4 per 100K
  
• 108 cases in Middlesex-London: 26.7 per 100K
  
• 100 cases in Hamilton: 17.3 per 100K
  
• 32 cases in Southwestern Ontario: 16.0 per 100K
  
• 158 cases in York: 14.2 per 100K
  
• 412 cases in Toronto: 14.1 per 100K
  
• 35 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 12.9 per 100K
  
• 67 cases in Halton: 12.2 per 100K
  
• 53 cases in Niagara: 11.8 per 100K
  
• 16 cases in Brant County: 11.8 per 100K
  
• 56 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 10.4 per 100K
  
• 59 cases in Durham: 9.1 per 100K
  
• 45 cases in Waterloo: 7.3 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 13 cases in Eastern Ontario: 6.4 per 100K
  
• 6 cases in Huron Perth: 6.1 per 100K
  
• 9 cases in Kingston Frontenac: 4.4 per 100K
  
• 41 cases in Ottawa: 4.1 per 100K
  

[ac3r]

The daily numbers are as follows, since the previous post only averages them: 57 today, 64 yesterday and 83 Friday.

Where did you find those? The region's dashboard only gave the total for the three days.

I pulled those from Kitchener Today. I haven't personally seen the regional database numbers yet.


https://www.kitchenertoday.com/coronavir...ys-3216398

[tomh009]

10-day averages for key regions in Ontario, plus the weekly trend as of 2020-12-28 (posting this every two days but yesterday's data not available until today).

Region	Cases today	10-day average	per 100K	Weekly trend
Windsor-Essex	147	162.2	41.7	-6%
Peel	496	438.5	31.7	-18%
York	142	220.3	19.8	-12%
Toronto	895	581.4	19.8	-17%
Niagara	115	83.1	18.6	-42%
Middlesex-London	86	72.4	17.9	-18%
Hamilton	144	97.5	16.8	+6%
Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph	57	43.3	15.9	+2%
Southwestern Ontario	25	29.5	14.8	+10%
Halton	78	78.8	14.4	-3%
Durham	108	88.1	13.6	-37%
Waterloo	57	83.7	13.5	-29%
Huron Perth	8	12.9	13.2	+37%
Simcoe-Muskoka	34	52.0	9.6	-27%
Brant County	11	12.5	9.2	-4%
Eastern Ontario	16	15.0	7.4	+29%
Thunder Bay	9	9.7	6.5	-117%
Ottawa	65	48.0	4.8	+30%
Kingston Frontenac	3	8.0	3.9	-67%

The numbers look encouragingly green at the moment but note that Ottawa is trending back up significantly, albeit from a low level.

[danbrotherston]

10-day averages for key regions in Ontario, plus the weekly trend as of 2020-12-28 (posting this every two days but yesterday's data not available until today).

Region	Cases today	10-day average	per 100K	Weekly trend
Windsor-Essex	147	162.2	41.7	-6%
Peel	496	438.5	31.7	-18%
York	142	220.3	19.8	-12%
Toronto	895	581.4	19.8	-17%
Niagara	115	83.1	18.6	-42%
Middlesex-London	86	72.4	17.9	-18%
Hamilton	144	97.5	16.8	+6%
Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph	57	43.3	15.9	+2%
Southwestern Ontario	25	29.5	14.8	+10%
Halton	78	78.8	14.4	-3%
Durham	108	88.1	13.6	-37%
Waterloo	57	83.7	13.5	-29%
Huron Perth	8	12.9	13.2	+37%
Simcoe-Muskoka	34	52.0	9.6	-27%
Brant County	11	12.5	9.2	-4%
Eastern Ontario	16	15.0	7.4	+29%
Thunder Bay	9	9.7	6.5	-117%
Ottawa	65	48.0	4.8	+30%
Kingston Frontenac	3	8.0	3.9	-67%

The numbers look encouragingly green at the moment but note that Ottawa is trending back up significantly, albeit from a low level.

How much of that is a reduction due to Christmas testing numbers, are the positivity rates trending similarly?

[tomh009]

(...)

The numbers look encouragingly green at the moment but note that Ottawa is trending back up significantly, albeit from a low level.

How much of that is a reduction due to Christmas testing numbers, are the positivity rates trending similarly?

That is the question, isn't it? Positivity rates are higher, as they always are when the number of tests drops (people with symptoms will be more likely to get immediate testing even on weekends or holidays, those without symptoms may wait). We won't see weekday-level results until Thursday and Friday (those will be for tests taken on Tuesday and Wednesday), and even so it's still the holiday week.

Next week's results will really tell us where we are: it'll be a normal five-day week, and we'll also see how much of a spike there is from Christmas. Until then, we can just hope for the best, but I would not base too much on this week's data as there are too many variables affecting it.