GO Transit

[robd]

Genuinely, what would Metrolinx need to do to convince people that they are actually proceeding with their plans for 2WAD service on the line? I hear criticism that they don't have a plan for 2WAD service, and when I point out that they do have a plan, the argument becomes that they have no plan to implement it, and when I point out that they've already started work that is identified as required in the plan, the argument becomes that the plan won't actually do what the plan sets out to do. Fair enough if that is true, but I haven't seen an actual criticism of the plan - ie. looking at scheduling patterns etc. If there is information along those lines, I'd love to see it.

It's not that I don't think some amount of cynicism is warranted, governments certainly pull the rug out from projects all the time, but in the cynical takes I keep seeing seem clearly counterfactual - ie. at this point in time Metrolinx is proceeding with implementing plans for 2WAD service to Kitchener. People may be skeptical about the plan, they may cynically about government commitment to the plan, but at this point in time, Metrolinx does have a plan, and they are proceeding with implementing it.

Progress feels like the hwy7 project, or Morriston bypass. Plans are renounced close to election time and then the movement is far too slow. I'm not confident that even with the correct willingness we are able to build the necessary infrastructure timely.

I would be more convinced if there was a real improvement in transit. It has deteriorated significantly with the pandemic. The fact that the region has population growth of above 2% a year, is 100km from Toronto and has no real transportation options outside of rush hour doesn't inspire confidence. 

Direct bus routes would be a start, 7 days a week.

[jamincan]

Genuinely, what would Metrolinx need to do to convince people that they are actually proceeding with their plans for 2WAD service on the line? I hear criticism that they don't have a plan for 2WAD service, and when I point out that they do have a plan, the argument becomes that they have no plan to implement it, and when I point out that they've already started work that is identified as required in the plan, the argument becomes that the plan won't actually do what the plan sets out to do. Fair enough if that is true, but I haven't seen an actual criticism of the plan - ie. looking at scheduling patterns etc. If there is information along those lines, I'd love to see it.

It's not that I don't think some amount of cynicism is warranted, governments certainly pull the rug out from projects all the time, but in the cynical takes I keep seeing seem clearly counterfactual - ie. at this point in time Metrolinx is proceeding with implementing plans for 2WAD service to Kitchener. People may be skeptical about the plan, they may cynically about government commitment to the plan, but at this point in time, Metrolinx does have a plan, and they are proceeding with implementing it.

Progress feels like the hwy7 project, or Morriston bypass. Plans are renounced close to election time and then the movement is far too slow. I'm not confident that even with the correct willingness we are able to build the necessary infrastructure timely.

I would be more convinced if there was a real improvement in transit. It has deteriorated significantly with the pandemic. The fact that the region has population growth of above 2% a year, is 100km from Toronto and has no real transportation options outside of rush hour doesn't inspire confidence. 

Direct bus routes would be a start, 7 days a week.

Metrolinx could definitely do better. The reduction in scheduled trips on the Kitchener Line is mystifying and bus service to Hamilton seems like such an obvious fit for Metrolinx that it's hard to understand why it still doesn't exist.

With regard to 2WAD service on the Kitchener Line, though, the business plan was only approved in March 2021, and they have already made improvements that have allowed scheduled times on the line to drop (at least that is what I've read elsewhere, and I can't say if there's since been a regression). The pessimist in me worries that it could end up being another Hwy 7, but the optimist in me takes encouragement from the fact that there appears to be progress without all the fanfare and ribbon-cutting, which hopefully means that there is more substance behind it than Hwy 7.

[Bytor]

With regard to 2WAD service on the Kitchener Line, though, the business plan was only approved in March 2021, and they have already made improvements that have allowed scheduled times on the line to drop (at least that is what I've read elsewhere, and I can't say if there's since been a regression). The pessimist in me worries that it could end up being another Hwy 7, but the optimist in me takes encouragement from the fact that there appears to be progress without all the fanfare and ribbon-cutting, which hopefully means that there is more substance behind it than Hwy 7.

You're still ignoring the Bramalea→Georgetown bottleneck which the Liberal government had gotten CN to agree to in principle just prior to the election.

After the election, during which a promise was made by Ford&Co. to get #2WADGO "sooner" than the Liberals, they cancelled that bypass with vague claims of working with CN to make it possible on the Kitchener line. This meant all that planning to get around the bottleneck had to be redone. When it became obvious that the section of that line still owned by CN was just far, far too busy with freight to simply slot it enough trains to reach the hourly both ways promise to Kitchener, they started vaguely talking about adding extra tracks to the bottleneck part in the Halton Sub.

It took them three years to finally put out that preliminary business case in 2021 for a project they had promised would be finished in 2024/25 and it only vaguely mentioned extra passing tracks in the Halton Sub but not where. In comparison, the Breslau passing tracks were mentioned before the initial business case was released in 2019.

A year later after that preliminary case they still have no plans at all where exactly the extra tracks in the Halton Sub would be laid to alleviate the capacity issues in the bottleneck, or at least none they have made public.

The EAs/TPAPs for this current work and anything else done outside the bottleneck were completed back in 2009-2014 and as of yet no new EA/TPAP has been started for these vaguely mentioned extra tracks in the Halton Sub.

At best, nothing done until now was not already planned under the Liberals, but in reality they have delayed many things like the improvements you cite that allowed quicker trip times because Metrolinx was ordered to halt everything for two years while they went into review mode.

Plus, the choices that the Tories have made are OK short term choices for adding a few extra trains to Kitchener but they do nothing for the long run, perhaps even hurt the long run, as electrifying all the way to Kitchener will require complete separation of freight and passenger lines given CN's refusal on those projects, and, ultimately, require the cancelled bypass getting built anyways.

[Bytor]

Also, let us not forget that 3 years ago last month the Ford government explicitly voted against a clear timeline and funding commitment for #2WADGO on the Kitchener line.

https://twitter.com/CFifeKW/status/11138...IhnVQ&s=19

Tory's in this province historically do not like Transit, and the only reason they are funding the core of the go Network this time around is because they want to retain the precious GTA V that got them elected in 2018. Without those votes, they are looking at a minority government or worse.

[tomh009]

That's interesting. For context...a GO train will traverse the 3.6 km in just over 2 minutes at 100km/h (a moderate top speed for GO trains--they can go much faster but usually don't).

How often are Kitchener line trains arriving within 2 minutes of their scheduled arrival time? If they arrive outside this scheduled arrival time they will delay the outgoing train.

Passing tracks can work, but they are very fragile to any scheduling issues like one might have when sharing with freight.

A 2.6 km passing track should be long enough for most (all?) freight trains as well.

[danbrotherston]

That's interesting. For context...a GO train will traverse the 3.6 km in just over 2 minutes at 100km/h (a moderate top speed for GO trains--they can go much faster but usually don't).

How often are Kitchener line trains arriving within 2 minutes of their scheduled arrival time? If they arrive outside this scheduled arrival time they will delay the outgoing train.

Passing tracks can work, but they are very fragile to any scheduling issues like one might have when sharing with freight.

A 2.6 km passing track should be long enough for most (all?) freight trains as well.

Yeah, it should fit freight trains as well, although AFAIK the freight conflicts are generally not on this segment of the Kitchener line, which Metrolinx already owns.

My point was that, for example, a Kitchener bound train may be delayed by a freight train near say Georgetown, and then be arriving in Kitchener 10-15 minutes late. This is a common occurrence. So now, the train OUT of Kitchener cannot depart until 15 minutes late, because it must wait till the train coming into KW reaches the passing segment.

Even worse, unless there is 15 minutes of slack in the schedule somewhere else, that delay is going to continue to cascade through the rest of the day, possibly putting trains in more conflict with other scheduled services and getting delayed further.

As for using the passing segment for a freight train, that's possible as well, but it would be difficult. Freight is slow and adheres poorly to schedules, so it may end up blocking the passing segment for a long time. Which means GO trains wouldn't be able to use it and it would be more difficult to schedule around.

Obviously you can solve these challenges with MORE passing segments, but at a certain point, you should just build a double track line.

I *do* think there is an interesting inversion of thinking that nobody really talks about which is the concept of a double track line with choke points. I'm not sure how this impacts scheduling, but if you widen the track to double tracks everywhere except the most expensive areas (bridges, tunnels, downtown) can you achieve most of the benefit of double track, with a fraction of the cost? Or do you really lose most of the benefits. I'm not really sure, and I don't think anyone can really answer the question definitively without actually studying it, scheduling is another problem that humans aren't very good at (mind you, neither are computers). FWIW...there is a BRT line in Gatineau that uses this concept. It re-uses an old single track railway bridge to cross the...Gatineau? river. Buses arrive and must wait for the bridge to be clear of oncoming traffic before proceeding. FWIW...again, this is something that works better when you aren't sharing with freight trains.

[ijmorlan]

I *do* think there is an interesting inversion of thinking that nobody really talks about which is the concept of a double track line with choke points. I'm not sure how this impacts scheduling, but if you widen the track to double tracks everywhere except the most expensive areas (bridges, tunnels, downtown) can you achieve most of the benefit of double track, with a fraction of the cost? Or do you really lose most of the benefits. I'm not really sure, and I don't think anyone can really answer the question definitively without actually studying it, scheduling is another problem that humans aren't very good at (mind you, neither are computers).  FWIW...there is a BRT line in Gatineau that uses this concept. It re-uses an old single track railway bridge to cross the...Gatineau? river. Buses arrive and must wait for the bridge to be clear of oncoming traffic before proceeding. FWIW...again, this is something that works better when you aren't sharing with freight trains.

I had not heard of this bridge, so looked and sure enough:

https://goo.gl/maps/GEccY3ATXRSmiAh48

You have the right river, and indeed the BRT runs parallel to a rail line which looks to me like it is out of service but still there. At the bridge, both directions of the BRT merge onto the single track; with appropriate protection one could have two-way rail and bus traffic. Incidentally, the rail line is the same one which used to continue across the Ottawa River and whose right of way is now used for the original O-Train on the Ottawa side.

I think for intermediate levels of service, this kind of concept can make a lot of sense. Instead of insisting on double track absolutely everywhere, leave some narrow areas. This also gives a turnback location for free. Even on the LRT this could have been done, for example on King between Allen and the Uptown station. The LRTs almost always meet at Allen so north of that location there is only one vehicle on the two tracks at a time. Of course, as you point out, as soon as something goes wrong it can cascade to the other direction; and at some point with increasing frequency it would start to cause significant problems.

[tomh009]

I *do* think there is an interesting inversion of thinking that nobody really talks about which is the concept of a double track line with choke points. I'm not sure how this impacts scheduling, but if you widen the track to double tracks everywhere except the most expensive areas (bridges, tunnels, downtown) can you achieve most of the benefit of double track, with a fraction of the cost? Or do you really lose most of the benefits. I'm not really sure, and I don't think anyone can really answer the question definitively without actually studying it, scheduling is another problem that humans aren't very good at (mind you, neither are computers).  FWIW...there is a BRT line in Gatineau that uses this concept. It re-uses an old single track railway bridge to cross the...Gatineau? river. Buses arrive and must wait for the bridge to be clear of oncoming traffic before proceeding. FWIW...again, this is something that works better when you aren't sharing with freight trains.

You would likely use a Monte Carlo simulation to study the impacts of the passing tracks in the various areas, along with schedule delays (the likelihood of which should be possible to simulate based on historical data). I absolutely believe that they can determine how much a 2.6 km passing track would help, as compared to a 1.6 km or 3.6 km segment. Not for a particular day, but on average, and with standard deviations.

[jamincan]

Isn't one of the major achievements of the Shinkansen that it's basically always on time? Between humans and computers, one of them figured out how to do scheduling there.

[ac3r]

Don't vote PCPO if you want to see all day GO service here, but vote PCPO if you want Doug Ford to bring it to Bowmanville: https://nationalpost.com/news/ontario-el...owmanville

[tomh009]

Isn't one of the major achievements of the Shinkansen that it's basically always on time? Between humans and computers, one of them figured out how to do scheduling there.

As a rule, trains run on time in Japan. Of course, accidents or other incidents can throw that off, but normal operation is super punctual.

[danbrotherston]

Isn't one of the major achievements of the Shinkansen that it's basically always on time? Between humans and computers, one of them figured out how to do scheduling there.

By "scheduling" I meant in the computer science meaning...i.e., finding a schedule which meets a set of constraints, and I meant hard in a computer science meaning as well...there isn't a fast algorithm to solve it.

It is certainly the case for a given context, on a human train scale, we can find a schedule.

I meant humans are not good at it, in that our intuitions do not usually give us a good direction on finding an optimal solution.

But even then, the on time performance of the Shinkansen (or any train really) isn't about finding a schedule, it's about ensuring that all the constraints are correctly identified and either removed (by eliminating sources of delays) or built into the schedule.

As for the Shinkansen specifically and Japanese trains in general, as I think we've probably covered here, schedules are easier and more reliable when they don't need to account for sharing with freight.

[KevinL]

Is this new Breslau passing track in the same area where they plan to build the station?

[SammyOES]

Is this new Breslau passing track in the same area where they plan to build the station?

It almost has to be.  The bridge is on the west side of Breslau and not being touched (as I understand it).  Then it’s only about 2km from there to the proposed station which is on the east side.  I don’t think Breslau is even 3km wide.

Edit: Looking at google images, I guess maybe it’ll be started around where the tracks cross Woolwich street and then go by the new station and out past Breslau.

They mention the shantz station bridge being expanded and thats about 3km from the fountain street bridge so maybe the lane does start closer to the new station and not in the older part of Breslau.

[KevinL]

Several new train trips starting May 24; I think this gets us back to pre-pandemic frequency. 

Starting Tuesday, May 24, we’re bringing back more evening rail service on the Kitchener line.

One additional eastbound trip will depart Kitchener GO at 8:45 p.m.
Two additional westbound trips to Kitchener GO will depart Union Station at 5:34 p.m. and 9:34 p.m., and one additional trip to Guelph GO will depart Union Station at 10:34 p.m.
To offer Kitchener line service later into the evening, the 8:43 p.m. westbound trip from Union Station will stop at Mount Pleasant GO, with bus connections to Kitchener.
Also starting Tuesday, May 24, more trips will start and end at Kitchener GO throughout the day.

Eastbound trips at 8:45 a.m., 11:45 a.m., and 2:47 p.m. will begin at Kitchener GO.
Westbound trips at 9:34 a.m. and 12:34 p.m. will be extended to Kitchener GO.

To offer more consistent service during the afternoon rush hour, the 5:49 p.m. westbound trip to Kitchener GO will depart 15 minutes later, at 6:04 p.m.

To accommodate rail traffic in the network, the 8:34 a.m. westbound train trip from Union Station will be cancelled and replaced by bus service, departing from the Union Station Bus Terminal at 8:16 a.m.

https://www.gotransit.com/en/trip-planni...le-changes