The COVID-19 pandemic

[tomh009]

They would most certainly sell it. Shortly after they approved it in their own country, they offered to sell it to almost any other nation that wished to buy it, although naturally there was little interest in it at that point. If Canada has any interest in it, we'd of course have to approve it here first.

That said, I don't see what isn't to trust, especially now that it has been peer reviewed by the global science community. Russia isn't some backwards land of uneducated plebeians, they're an incredible nation with a rich history and have made important contributions to everything from philosophy to space travel to medicine. We trust their rockets to put our astronauts and satellites into space, right? Putin is one man and he does not control everything. Our geopolitical paranoia towards them should not play a part in something important like this, provided it was not sold to us with any caveats that deeply undermine our geopolitics.

Nobody thinks Russia is incapable of producing a vaccine. But the Russian state has shown a willingness to cheat and lie to advance their own image before. They had a very sofisticated system for cheating at the Olympics for example. And a peer review committee is mostly looking for scientific rigour not investigating for outright lies and deceit. They have already been fooled once, last time by an unscrupulous corporation.

I am not saying that the vaccine cannot work, I am just saying I don't trust the honesty of the Russian state or the independence of the vaccine producer. As others have said there is only one peer reviewed study so far. One data point,

Some Russian scientists also doubt the results for the Sputnik trials.
http://osdm.org/english/2021/02/06/a-com...e-3-trial/

[tomh009]

TUESDAY 2021-02-09

Waterloo Region reported 35 new cases today (7.9% of the active cases) and two more for yesterday for a total of 40; 345 new cases for the week (+17), averaging 10.6% of active cases. 408 active cases, -85 in the last seven days.

An average of 1,720 tests per day for the past seven days, for an average positivity rate of 2.87%.

Ontario reported 1,022 new cases today with a seven-day average of 1,367 (-46). 1,388 recoveries and 17 deaths translated to a drop of 383 active cases and a new total of 13,948. -3,413 active cases for the week and 317 deaths (45 per day). 30,798 tests for a positivity rate of 3.32%. The positivity rate is averaging 2.89% for the past seven days, compared to 3.66% for the preceding seven.

318 patients in ICU (-17 today, -23 for the week). Total hospital population 909 (-283 for the week) -- very encouraging numbers from the hospitals now, confirming the downward trend in case numbers.

• 250 cases in Peel: 18.1 per 100K
  
• 343 cases in Toronto: 11.7 per 100K
  
• 128 cases in York: 11.5 per 100K
  
• 9 cases in Chatham-Kent: 8.5 per 100K
  
• 42 cases in Halton: 7.7 per 100K
  
• 41 cases in Waterloo: 6.6 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 24 cases in Middlesex-London: 5.9 per 100K
  
• 12 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 4.4 per 100K
  
• 23 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 4.3 per 100K
  
• 16 cases in Windsor-Essex: 4.1 per 100K
  
• 18 cases in Niagara: 4.0 per 100K
  
• 25 cases in Durham: 3.9 per 100K
  
• 5 cases in Brant: 3.7 per 100K
  
• 25 cases in Ottawa: 2.5 per 100K
  
• 12 cases in Hamilton: 2.1 per 100K
  
• 4 cases in Southwestern Ontario: 2.0 per 100K
  
• 4 cases in Kingston Frontenac: 2.0 per 100K
  

[tomh009]

10-day averages for key regions in Ontario, plus the weekly trend as of 2021-02-10 (posting this every two days).

Region	Cases today	per 100K	10-day average	per 100K	Weekly trend
Peel	196	14.2	292	21.1	-18%
Toronto	393	13.4	528	18.0	-24%
York	125	11.3	145	13.0	-21%
Niagara	19	4.2	58	13.0	-67%
Chatham-Kent	16	15.1	14	12.9	-12%
Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph	14	5.1	28	10.2	-66%
Windsor-Essex	24	6.2	39	10.1	-42%
Hamilton	28	4.8	55	9.5	-36%
Halton	28	5.1	50	9.2	-10%
Waterloo	47	7.6	56	9.0	-28%
Thunder Bay	7	4.7	13	8.6	-31%
Durham	21	3.3	54	8.3	-35%
Middlesex-London	22	5.4	31	7.6	-20%
Simcoe-Muskoka	29	5.4	40	7.5	-12%
Eastern Ontario	2	1.0	13	6.6	-86%
Huron Perth	5	5.1	6	6.4	-31%
Brant	11	8.1	9	6.3	+13%
Southwestern Ontario	4	2.0	11	5.5	-23%
Lambton	8	6.1	7	5.1	-20%
Ottawa	40	4.0	48	4.8	-13%
Ontario total					-21%

[tomh009]

WEDNESDAY 2021-02-10

Waterloo Region reported 34 new cases today (8.3% of the active cases) and no additional ones for yesterday for a total of 34; 346 new cases for the week (+1), averaging 10.9% of active cases. 386 active cases, -61 in the last seven days.

Next testing report on Friday.

Ontario reported 1,062 new cases today with a seven-day average of 1,333 (-34). 1,709 recoveries and 41 deaths translated to a drop of 688 active cases and a new total of 13,260. -3,681 active cases for the week and 291 deaths (42 per day). 52,504 tests for a positivity rate of 2.02%. The positivity rate is averaging 2.83% for the past seven days, compared to 3.53% for the preceding seven.

313 patients in ICU (-5 today, -23 for the week). Total hospital population 948 (-118 for the week).

• 16 cases in Chatham-Kent: 15.1 per 100K
  
• 196 cases in Peel: 14.2 per 100K
  
• 393 cases in Toronto: 13.4 per 100K
  
• 125 cases in York: 11.3 per 100K
  
• 11 cases in Brant: 8.1 per 100K
  
• 47 cases in Waterloo: 7.6 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 24 cases in Windsor-Essex: 6.2 per 100K
  
• 8 cases in Lambton: 6.1 per 100K
  
• 22 cases in Middlesex-London: 5.4 per 100K
  
• 29 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 5.4 per 100K
  
• 14 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 5.1 per 100K
  
• 28 cases in Halton: 5.1 per 100K
  
• 5 cases in Huron Perth: 5.1 per 100K
  
• 28 cases in Hamilton: 4.8 per 100K
  
• 7 cases in Thunder Bay: 4.7 per 100K
  
• 19 cases in Niagara: 4.2 per 100K
  
• 40 cases in Ottawa: 4.0 per 100K
  
• 21 cases in Durham: 3.3 per 100K
  
• 4 cases in Southwestern Ontario: 2.0 per 100K
  

[plam]

I mean, this is what happens when you are looking for villains in vaccine administration:

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/10/us/ho...ccine.html

Seems like a total misadministration of justice to go after this doctor who made good faith efforts to find people to vaccinate and in the end vaccinated his wife, who is high risk. For what it's worth, household members of frontline workers will be eligible for priority vaccine in NZ.

[Coke6pk]

I mean, this is what happens when you are looking for villains in vaccine administration:

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/10/us/ho...ccine.html

Seems like a total misadministration of justice to go after this doctor who made good faith efforts to find people to vaccinate and in the end vaccinated his wife, who is high risk. For what it's worth, household members of frontline workers will be eligible for priority vaccine in NZ.

This is a horrible story, and if his version is in fact accurate, a sad commentary on the punishments for doing the right thing.

Coke

[tomh009]

Only 945 new cases reported for Ontario today ... but it looks like Toronto Public Health reported well less than half of their actual cases due to some system/process problems. I expect the actual number will be 1100+ but it's admittedly just a guess.

[ac3r]

Ontario gives sole-sourced contract to Deloitte to support COVID-19 vaccination campaign: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/o...-1.5909515

[tomh009]

THURSDAY 2021-02-11

Waterloo Region reported 65 new cases today (16.7% of the active cases) and one more for yesterday for a total of 35; 347 new cases for the week (+1), averaging 11.2% of active cases. 403 active cases, -67 in the last seven days.

Next testing report on Friday.

Ontario reported 955 new cases today -- but with only partial Toronto data, again -- with a seven-day average of 1,246 (-86). 1,344 recoveries and 18 deaths translated to a drop of 407 active cases and a new total of 12,853. -3,607 active cases for the week and 221 deaths (32 per day), a big improvement on the mortality numbers. 68,812 tests for a positivity rate of 1.39% (but surely higher once the Toronto data is corrected). The positivity rate is averaging 2.68% for the past seven days, compared to 3.41% for the preceding seven.

299 patients in ICU (-14 today, -24 for the week). Total hospital population 883 (-218 for the week).

• 258 cases in Peel: 18.7 per 100K
  
• 29 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 10.7 per 100K
  
• 116 cases in York: 10.5 per 100K
  
• 8 cases in Huron Perth: 8.2 per 100K
  
• 12 cases in Thunder Bay: 8.0 per 100K
  
• 46 cases in Hamilton: 7.9 per 100K
  
• 15 cases in Eastern Ontario: 7.4 per 100K
  
• 9 cases in Lambton: 6.9 per 100K
  
• 41 cases in Waterloo: 6.6 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 7 cases in Chatham-Kent: 6.6 per 100K
  
• 25 cases in Windsor-Essex: 6.4 per 100K
  
• 63 cases in Ottawa: 6.3 per 100K
  
• 34 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 6.3 per 100K
  
• 31 cases in Halton: 5.7 per 100K
  
• 25 cases in Niagara: 5.6 per 100K
  
• 11 cases in Southwestern Ontario: 5.5 per 100K
  
• 33 cases in Durham: 5.1 per 100K
  
• 20 cases in Middlesex-London: 4.9 per 100K
  
• 112 cases in Toronto: 3.8 per 100K
  
• 5 cases in Leeds, Grenville & Lanark: 2.9 per 100K
  

[ac3r]

Pfenning's Organic Foods in St. Agatha is proudly advertising their business as a safe space for people who want to shop without masks. Judging by their Instagram photos over the last year, virtually nobody working at or shopping in the store wears masks. They'll be getting interviewed by the far-right conspiracy propoganda network Rebel Media about it tomorrow: https://www.instagram.com/p/CLKHe6rgkmH/

Be careful if you happen to shop here because just about everyone in the store is going to be a likely vector for the virus after this. Absolutely reckless and unfortunately this is one of those cases where nothing can be done about it.

[Coke6pk]

Absolutely reckless and unfortunately this is one of those cases where nothing can be done about it.

Pre-COVID when there were illegal marijuana dispensaries operating, by-law would use concrete highway barriers to block entrances to prevent re-occurrence.

Now when places are openly displaying non-compliance, and not just weed, but something lethal, we do nothing?  I don't get it.

Coke

[EdM]

Pfenning's Organic Foods in St. Agatha is proudly advertising their business as a safe space for people who want to shop without masks.

I saw this from Pfenning's Farm's twitter

Looking for the store in St. Agatha?  Nope, that’s not us! (Same family, separate businesses, separate policies.) Looking for the farm? You found us! We grow lots of certified organic vegetables on ~700 acres.

And Andrew Coppolino has a post on it too. I feel for the folks behind Pfenning's Farm.

[tomh009]

10-day averages for key regions in Ontario, plus the weekly trend as of 2021-02-12 (posting this every two days).

Region	Cases today	per 100K	10-day average	per 100K	Weekly trend
Peel	210	15.2	280	20.2	-20%
Toronto	361	12.3	473	16.1	-33%
York	122	11.0	140	12.6	-24%
Chatham-Kent		.0	13	12.0	-46%
Niagara	17	3.8	50	11.1	-80%
Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph	17	6.3	26	9.7	-65%
Windsor-Essex	18	4.6	36	9.3	-51%
Thunder Bay	22	14.7	14	9.2	-28%
Hamilton	30	5.2	51	8.8	-38%
Halton	31	5.7	48	8.8	-24%
Waterloo	59	9.5	53	8.5	-18%
Durham	31	4.8	51	7.8	-49%
Simcoe-Muskoka	24	4.4	40	7.5	-31%
Middlesex-London	7	1.7	28	7.0	-36%
Huron Perth	1	1.0	6	6.4	-53%
Eastern Ontario	6	3.0	12	5.9	-74%
Brant	13	9.6	8	5.8	+23%
Southwestern Ontario	11	5.5	11	5.7	-32%
Lambton	11	8.4	7	5.7	-18%
Ottawa	52	5.2	48	4.8	-2%
Ontario total					-30%

The Toronto numbers are still pending corrections ...

[ac3r]

Absolutely reckless and unfortunately this is one of those cases where nothing can be done about it.

Pre-COVID when there were illegal marijuana dispensaries operating, by-law would use concrete highway barriers to block entrances to prevent re-occurrence.

Now when places are openly displaying non-compliance, and not just weed, but something lethal, we do nothing?  I don't get it.

Coke

The problem is that we decided one doesn't actually have to prove to anyone they have a medical problem to refuse wearing a mask, it's just your word against theirs. I'm perfectly healthy but if I wanted to just decide one day I don't want to wear any masks, I can just refuse to do so and call anyone who questions that discriminatory. It's ridiculous. I hope in the next pandemic where masks are demonstrated to be necessary we have the sense to not allow this. Make people who are truly exempt have some sort of documentation, it would be no harder to get than a doctors note for work or school.

[tomh009]

Some random COVID tidbits:

• Manitoba has placed an order for 2M vaccine doses from Providence Therapeutics of Calgary. Providence has just started phase 2 trials (the much-bigger phase 3 trial is still in the future) so approval is still well in the future. The company has also purchased land for a production site but apparently no construction has started yet. This will surely arrive after the Novavax production starts in Montreal.
  https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/...-1.5910312
  
  
• Reports from Israel (where the entire population is being monitored) show that the BioNTech-Pfizer vaccine has reduced infections by 93% including asymptomatic cases (the phase 3 trial only check for symptomatic cases)
  https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20210212_08/
  
  
• Some Russian scientists are not so much impressed with the phase 3 study of the Sputnik-V vaccine or the details that were published
  http://osdm.org/english/2021/02/07/comme...k-v-trial/
  
  
• A Finnish company, DSA, is about to go to production with a COVID breathalyzer device that can accurately detect an infection within two minutes
  https://dsa.fi/dsa-breathpass
  
  
• And Miami Heat is using dogs to detect COVID positive patrons with 92% accuracy
  https://www.forbes.com/sites/robertglatt...-new-mvps/