The COVID-19 pandemic

[tomh009]

10-day averages for key regions in Ontario, plus the weekly trend as of 2021-03-10 (posting this every two days).

Region	Cases today	per 100K	10-day average	per 100K	Weekly trend
Thunder Bay	67	44.7	52	34.9	+46%
Peel	244	17.7	207	15.0	+35%
Lambton	1	.8	17	13.0	-13%
Toronto	428	14.6	337	11.5	+54%
Brant	14	10.3	12	9.1	-14%
York	149	13.4	100	9.0	+62%
Hamilton	59	10.2	51	8.8	+41%
Northwestern	8	9.1	7	8.2	+16%
Halton	48	8.8	39	7.1	+44%
Windsor-Essex	23	5.9	26	6.8	+44%
Waterloo	25	4.0	42	6.7	-1%
Durham	48	7.4	42	6.5	+32%
Simcoe-Muskoka	31	5.7	34	6.3	+2%
Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph	8	2.9	16	5.8	-3%
Ottawa	59	5.9	57	5.8	-18%
Eastern Ontario	11	5.4	11	5.2	+22%
Sudbury	13	3.3	20	5.2	+29%
Niagara	19	4.2	23	5.2	+7%
Leeds, Grenville & Lanark	11	6.5	8	4.5	+38%
Middlesex-London	2	.5	17	4.2	-13%
Huron Perth	1	1.0	4	3.8	-6%
Chatham-Kent	9	8.5	4	3.6	+589%
Southwestern Ontario	7	3.5	5	2.3	+75%
Kingston Frontenac	1	.5	2	1.2	-29%
Ontario total					+34%

[jamincan]

While the percentage of cases with a mutation are increasing it doesn't appear that there is a noticeable effect on the overall numbers yet, despite that being a clearly defined 3 week trend.

[danbrotherston]

While the percentage of cases with a mutation are increasing it doesn't appear that there is a noticeable effect on the overall numbers yet, despite that being a clearly defined 3 week trend.

We don't really know that...because we haven't isolated the other factors. It's possible that with the red restrictions in place in most places, the numbers would have been dropping if it wasn't for the variants. Because the variants started becoming prevalent at the same time as we changed other factors we cannot know what the expected behaviour would have been (and for that matter, you can never really isolate all human behaviour). We *might* be able to evaluate the effect of policy vs. variants by doing a cross analysis between different zones, but there are an awful lot of variables.

[tomh009]

While the percentage of cases with a mutation are increasing it doesn't appear that there is a noticeable effect on the overall numbers yet, despite that being a clearly defined 3 week trend.

We don't really know that...because we haven't isolated the other factors. It's possible that with the red restrictions in place in most places, the numbers would have been dropping if it wasn't for the variants. Because the variants started becoming prevalent at the same time as we changed other factors we cannot know what the expected behaviour would have been (and for that matter, you can never really isolate all human behaviour). We *might* be able to evaluate the effect of policy vs. variants by doing a cross analysis between different zones, but there are an awful lot of variables.

I agree. Too many variables. But we do know there are a lot more variants now, possibly up to 30%. And we also know that while we have an uptrend in the number of cases, it's not exploding out of hand, at least not yet.

So, the increase in variants would explain why the case numbers are no longer dropping. And why we better not loosen any more restrictions anytime soon, until a substantial number of people has been vaccinated.

[danbrotherston]

We don't really know that...because we haven't isolated the other factors. It's possible that with the red restrictions in place in most places, the numbers would have been dropping if it wasn't for the variants. Because the variants started becoming prevalent at the same time as we changed other factors we cannot know what the expected behaviour would have been (and for that matter, you can never really isolate all human behaviour). We *might* be able to evaluate the effect of policy vs. variants by doing a cross analysis between different zones, but there are an awful lot of variables.

I agree. Too many variables. But we do know there are a lot more variants now, possibly up to 30%. And we also know that while we have an uptrend in the number of cases, it's not exploding out of hand, at least not yet.

So, the increase in variants would explain why the case numbers are no longer dropping. And why we better not loosen any more restrictions anytime soon, until a substantial number of people has been vaccinated.

Indeed, although that is going to take a considerable amount of time, at least in epidemiological terms.

[tomh009]

WEDNESDAY 2021-03-10

Waterloo Region reported 36 new cases for today (10.1% of the active cases) and one less for yesterday for a total of 26; 278 new cases for the week (-11), averaging 10.0% of active cases. 332 active cases, -100 in the last seven days.

Next testing report on Friday.

Ontario reported 1,316 new cases today with a seven-day average of 1,238 (+51). 1,212 recoveries and 16 deaths translated to an increase of 88 active cases and a new total of 11,311. +914 active cases for the week and 85 deaths (12 per day). 54,149 tests for a positivity rate of 2.43%. The positivity rate is averaging 2.60% for the past seven days, compared to 2.25% for the preceding seven.

281 patients in ICU (-9 today, +7 for the week) and a total of 678 hospital beds in use (+10 for the week).

N509Y mutation testing was 30.3% positive, averaging 32.2% for the past week.

• 67 cases in Thunder Bay: 44.7 per 100K
  
• 244 cases in Peel: 17.7 per 100K
  
• 428 cases in Toronto: 14.6 per 100K
  
• 149 cases in York: 13.4 per 100K
  
• 14 cases in Brant: 10.3 per 100K
  
• 59 cases in Hamilton: 10.2 per 100K
  
• 8 cases in Northwestern: 9.1 per 100K
  
• 48 cases in Halton: 8.8 per 100K
  
• 9 cases in Chatham-Kent: 8.5 per 100K
  
• 48 cases in Durham: 7.4 per 100K
  
• 11 cases in Leeds, Grenville & Lanark: 6.5 per 100K
  
• 59 cases in Ottawa: 5.9 per 100K
  
• 23 cases in Windsor-Essex: 5.9 per 100K
  
• 31 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 5.7 per 100K
  
• 11 cases in Eastern Ontario: 5.4 per 100K
  
• 19 cases in Niagara: 4.2 per 100K
  
• 25 cases in Waterloo: 4.0 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 7 cases in Southwestern Ontario: 3.5 per 100K
  
• 13 cases in Sudbury: 3.3 per 100K
  
• 8 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 2.9 per 100K
  

Only regions with at least two cases per 100,000 population

[Coke6pk]

11 local cases now linked to a couple of dumbasses throwing a wedding on Monday: https://outline.com/UDwywG

May their marriage end in swift, expensive divorce.

This news story is missing the "Waterloo Regional Police are investigating and will be laying charges to those who were in attendance contrary to the provincial gathering limits."

#OneCanHope

Coke

[tomh009]

THURSDAY 2021-03-11

Waterloo Region reported 29 new cases for today (8.7% of the active cases) and one less for yesterday for a total of 35; 271 new cases for the week (-7), averaging 10.0% of active cases. 332 active cases, -84 in the last seven days.

Next testing report on Friday.

Ontario reported 1,092 new cases today with a seven-day average of 1,252 (+14). 1,110 recoveries and 10 deaths translated to a drop of 28 active cases and a new total of 11,283. +974 active cases for the week and 85 deaths (12 per day). 60,619 tests for a positivity rate of 1.80%. The positivity rate is averaging 2.64% for the past seven days, compared to 2.22% for the preceding seven.

277 patients in ICU (-4 today, -4 for the week) and a total of 680 hospital beds in use (+31 for the week).

• 48 cases in Thunder Bay: 32.0 per 100K
  
• 33 cases in Lambton: 25.2 per 100K
  
• 199 cases in Peel: 14.4 per 100K
  
• 39 cases in Windsor-Essex: 10.0 per 100K
  
• 293 cases in Toronto: 10.0 per 100K
  
• 10 cases in Chatham-Kent: 9.4 per 100K
  
• 18 cases in Eastern Ontario: 8.9 per 100K
  
• 43 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 8.0 per 100K
  
• 79 cases in York: 7.1 per 100K
  
• 38 cases in Hamilton: 6.6 per 100K
  
• 64 cases in Ottawa: 6.4 per 100K
  
• 26 cases in Middlesex-London: 6.4 per 100K
  
• 6 cases in Huron Perth: 6.1 per 100K
  
• 33 cases in Halton: 6.0 per 100K
  
• 37 cases in Waterloo: 6.0 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 26 cases in Niagara: 5.8 per 100K
  
• 36 cases in Durham: 5.6 per 100K
  
• 7 cases in Brant: 5.1 per 100K
  
• 8 cases in Leeds, Grenville & Lanark: 4.7 per 100K
  
• 4 cases in Northwestern: 4.6 per 100K
  
• 6 cases in Southwestern Ontario: 3.0 per 100K
  
• 11 cases in Sudbury: 2.8 per 100K
  

Only regions with at least two cases per 100,000 population

[taylortbb]

The past week has seen pretty consistent increases in vaccine doses per day. Thursday was just shy of 100k, according to https://covid19tracker.ca/vaccinationtracker.html , so that's a big uptick even without the online booking system.

We were talking a couple weeks ago about the US reaching 1.7M/day, which population adjusted is about 180k/day, so we're not quite there yet but much closer.

According to https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/s...llout.html we'll receive over 2M doses the week of March 22. We'll need to average 291k/day that week to keep up. If we can manage that we'll be matching or exceeding the US's current pace (population adjusted). The next couple weeks will be the real test of whether the provinces are ready.

[jamincan]

Apparently now that Pfizer is churning out vaccines again, they've accelerated their deliveries to Canada and that we're now on track to receive 38 million doses by June/July.

[danbrotherston]

Apparently now that Pfizer is churning out vaccines again, they've accelerated their deliveries to Canada and that we're now on track to receive 38 million doses by June/July.

I mean like, that was the point of them shutting down for a time, was to increase capacity.

[tomh009]

So ... Ontario government ... hello, could we get an updated plan, please?

The supply constraint seems to be in the past now, no more excuses there. Can we actually deliver 250-300K shots per day? If we can, we should be able to easily have everyone (over 18) with at least their first shots by the end of July.

[jamincan]

So ... Ontario government ... hello, could we get an updated plan, please?

The supply constraint seems to be in the past now, no more excuses there. Can we actually deliver 250-300K shots per day? If we can, we should be able to easily have everyone (over 18) with at least their first shots by the end of July.

Suggest a way that Doug Ford can use vaccine administration to funnel money toward his developer pals, and I'm sure he'll start treating it as a high priority.

[danbrotherston]

So ... Ontario government ... hello, could we get an updated plan, please?

The supply constraint seems to be in the past now, no more excuses there. Can we actually deliver 250-300K shots per day? If we can, we should be able to easily have everyone (over 18) with at least their first shots by the end of July.

Didn't we already have a new plan announced, Hillier said that he expected everyone to have a first shot by June 20th.

I felt that was a reasonably ambitious plan.

[tomh009]

10-day averages for key regions in Ontario, plus the weekly trend as of 2021-03-12 (posting this every two days).

Region	Cases today	per 100K	10-day average	per 100K	Weekly trend
Thunder Bay	52	34.7	53	35.3	+30%
Lambton	27	20.6	21	15.6	+9%
Peel	225	16.3	209	15.1	+33%
Toronto	371	12.7	350	11.9	+26%
Hamilton	109	18.8	58	10.1	+49%
York	111	10.0	105	9.4	+19%
Brant	11	8.1	11	8.3	-15%
Northwestern	13	14.8	7	8.2	+69%
Windsor-Essex	39	10.0	30	7.6	+60%
Halton	34	6.2	39	7.1	+22%
Waterloo	36	5.8	40	6.5	-7%
Durham	35	5.4	42	6.5	-1%
Simcoe-Muskoka	43	8.0	35	6.5	+35%
Eastern Ontario	12	5.9	12	5.9	+20%
Ottawa	83	8.3	59	5.9	+22%
Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph	19	7.0	16	5.7	-37%
Sudbury	37	9.5	22	5.7	+15%
Niagara	22	4.9	25	5.5	-13%
Chatham-Kent	10	9.4	6	5.5	+243%
Leeds, Grenville & Lanark	10	5.9	9	5.2	-9%
Middlesex-London	31	7.7	20	5.0	+7%
Huron Perth	3	3.1	4	4.1	-16%
Southwestern Ontario	3	1.5	5	2.7	-20%
Ontario total					+23%