The COVID-19 pandemic

[ac3r]

21 cases at UW and Laurier due to students partying: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/kitchener...-1.5969854

[danbrotherston]

[panamaniac]

DoFo's shortcomings have (again) been on full display in recent days. His incoherent messaging suggests yet another round of "shut it down too late, so that people can gather for the holiday that I'm telling them not to gather for, and then, when the numbers start coming down, get ready to lift the restrictions too soon". One realizes he's making political calculations and is under pressure from financial supporters, but it comes across like he thinks he can make bargains with a virus.

[danbrotherston]

DoFo's shortcomings have (again) been on full display in recent days.  His incoherent messaging suggests yet another round of "shut it down too late, so that people can gather for the holiday that I'm telling them not to gather for, and then, when the numbers start coming down, get ready to lift the restrictions too soon".  One realizes he's making political calculations and is under pressure from financial supporters, but it comes across like he thinks he can make bargains with a virus.

Yeah, pretty much. I am thinking this is going to be the worst yet, given that ICU capacity is a significantly lagging indicator, we're in for a world of hurt even if he closed now...and given that he's unlikely to actually lock down at all...I really don't know what to say.

[Bjays93]

Ontario has managed things *ok* so far and gets the most scrutiny in Canada. We are headed into a tailspin though and looking at Europe levels of disaster all the sudden.

Whoever's idea it was to reopen at 1000 cases a day is an idiot. We shoulda stuck it out for another month no matter how much that sucks, cases would've been much lower, variant spread massively reduced, vaccine rollout underway, closer to summer and warm weather, and we likely would've been able to open up again and not have yet another lockdown or crisis like this.

[danbrotherston]

Ontario has managed things *ok* so far and gets the most scrutiny in Canada. We are headed into a tailspin though and looking at Europe levels of disaster all the sudden.

Whoever's idea it was to reopen at 1000 cases a day is an idiot. We shoulda stuck it out for another month no matter how much that sucks, cases would've been much lower, variant spread massively reduced, vaccine rollout underway, closer to summer and warm weather, and we likely would've been able to open up again and not have yet another lockdown or crisis like this.

It was a decision, by someone, partly driven by lack of capability, partly by ideology, who is fundamentally incapable of planning for the future.

[tomh009]

WEDNESDAY 2021-03-31

Waterloo Region reported 42 new cases for today (13.5% of the active cases) and one more for yesterday for a total of 23; 297 new cases for the week (+9), averaging 14.8% of active cases. 314 active cases, +58 in the last seven days.

Next testing report on Friday.

3,462 vaccine doses delivered, with a seven-day average of 2,898. At this pace, the dose count will reach 70% of the regional population on 2021-07-29 (-9 days).

Ontario reported 2,333 new cases today, with a seven-day average of 2,316 (+109). 1,973 recoveries and 15 deaths translated to an increase of 345 active cases and a new total of 20,155 -- back into the 20K range for the first time since January. +5,108 active cases for the week -- up by a third! -- and 103 deaths (15 per day). 52,532 tests for a positivity rate of 4.44%. The positivity rate is averaging 4.73% for the past seven days, compared to 3.74% for the preceding seven.

396 patients in ICU (+9 today, +63 for the week) and 1,111 total hospital beds in use (+218 for the week).

89,873 doses of vaccine administered, with a seven-day average of 73,729. At this pace, the dose count will reach 70% of the provincial population on 2021-07-14 (-5 days) -- getting close to the end of June now. There is currently a 14-day gap between the provincial and regional projections (-6 days).

• 433 cases in Peel: 31.3 per 100K
  
• 785 cases in Toronto: 26.8 per 100K
  
• 153 cases in Hamilton: 26.4 per 100K
  
• 93 cases in Middlesex-London: 23.0 per 100K
  
• 30 cases in Thunder Bay: 20.0 per 100K
  
• 222 cases in York: 20.0 per 100K
  
• 120 cases in Durham: 18.6 per 100K
  
• 77 cases in Niagara: 17.2 per 100K
  
• 50 cases in Windsor-Essex: 12.9 per 100K
  
• 124 cases in Ottawa: 12.5 per 100K
  
• 20 cases in Southwestern Ontario: 10.0 per 100K
  
• 20 cases in Eastern Ontario: 9.9 per 100K
  
• 50 cases in Halton: 9.1 per 100K
  
• 10 cases in Brant: 7.4 per 100K
  
• 26 cases in Sudbury: 6.7 per 100K
  
• 38 cases in Waterloo: 6.2 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 5 cases in Northwestern: 5.7 per 100K
  
• 24 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 4.4 per 100K
  
• 11 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 4.0 per 100K
  
• 6 cases in Leeds, Grenville & Lanark: 3.5 per 100K
  
• 7 cases in Kingston Frontenac: 3.4 per 100K
  
• 3 cases in Lambton: 2.3 per 100K
  

Only regions with at least two cases per 100,000 population

[panamaniac]

Ontario has managed things *ok* so far and gets the most scrutiny in Canada. We are headed into a tailspin though and looking at Europe levels of disaster all the sudden.

Whoever's idea it was to reopen at 1000 cases a day is an idiot. We shoulda stuck it out for another month no matter how much that sucks, cases would've been much lower, variant spread massively reduced, vaccine rollout underway, closer to summer and warm weather, and we likely would've been able to open up again and not have yet another lockdown or crisis like this.

It was a decision, by someone, partly driven by lack of capability, partly by ideology, who is fundamentally incapable of planning for the future.

His name is Doug Ford.

[welltoldtales]

Does anyone think this will actually open the eyes of ontarians? I mean the last two conservative governments have had

1) Walkerton Water Crisis and Dudley George
2) COVID disaster

I mean I get the liberals are also not great... but... I will take some taxpayer waste over people legitimately dying due to stupid decisions. The first lockdown clearly didn't last for long enough as it should have and the colour banding system for regions is a proper disaster. Moving to "red" or even "grey" basically never slowed the spread at all. Now we have a Grey + lockdown for the THIRD TIME.

[Coke6pk]

Now we have a Grey + lockdown for the THIRD TIME.

Do we?

What is the deal with teasing an announcement later in the week, then leaking the information for people to guess at.  (Causing York Region School Board to announce school closures for 4 weeks, even if that isn't the case).  Can't we just put on our big boy pants, make a hard decision and stick with it.  Playing games when lives are at stake is f--king bulls--t!

This isn't a "The Kardashians have a new product to promote", tune in for details at 6 moment. 

Coke

[jamincan]

This isn't a "The Kardashians have a new product to promote", tune in for details at 6 moment. 

I genuinely think that the Conservatives care more about managing the PR and optics of the government as it relates to Covid than they do managing the pandemic response itself.

[danbrotherston]

Now we have a Grey + lockdown for the THIRD TIME.

Do we?

What is the deal with teasing an announcement later in the week, then leaking the information for people to guess at.  (Causing York Region School Board to announce school closures for 4 weeks, even if that isn't the case).  Can't we just put on our big boy pants, make a hard decision and stick with it.  Playing games when lives are at stake is f--king bulls--t!

This isn't a "The Kardashians have a new product to promote", tune in for details at 6 moment. 

Coke

You have to give them time to come up with a good way to blame the Feds. Did you see the twitter fiasco, a dozen or so MPPs tweeted a message about the Feds not delivering as many vaccines as they promsed (by something lik 200k as if that would change things now), anyway, the Feds pointed out this is a straight up lie and they've delivered more vaccines than they promised, and all those tweets are being deleted now.

Most annoying, the Mayor of Guelph, who I largely respect, is "both siding it" by complaining about the governments "trading barbs"...

[danbrotherston]

This isn't a "The Kardashians have a new product to promote", tune in for details at 6 moment. 

I genuinely think that the Conservatives care more about managing the PR and optics of the government as it relates to Covid than they do managing the pandemic response itself.

I don't think anyone should pretend to know what actually motivates people. But it is absolutely the case that the conservatives of late are giving a very strong impression that the optics are what they care about, rather than the problem.

[danbrotherston]

Does anyone think this will actually open the eyes of ontarians? I mean the last two conservative governments have had

1) Walkerton Water Crisis and Dudley George
2) COVID disaster

I mean I get the liberals are also not great... but... I will take some taxpayer waste over people legitimately dying due to stupid decisions. The first lockdown clearly didn't last for long enough as it should have and the colour banding system for regions is a proper disaster. Moving to "red" or even "grey" basically never slowed the spread at all. Now we have a Grey + lockdown for the THIRD TIME.

I don't believe for a second that the conservatives are less wasteful than the liberals.

They spend less and make cuts, that is not the same as reducing waste.

[tomh009]

10-day averages for key regions in Ontario, plus the weekly trend as of 2021-04-01 (posting this every two days).

Region	Cases today	per 100K	10-day average	per 100K	Weekly trend
Peel	484	35.0	382	27.6	+35%
Toronto	743	25.4	695	23.7	+22%
York	311	28.0	238	21.5	+39%
Durham	107	16.6	128	19.8	+31%
Hamilton	119	20.5	103	17.8	+48%
Lambton	30	22.9	23	17.7	-14%
Thunder Bay	27	18.0	24	16.2	-13%
Eastern Ontario	37	18.2	28	13.7	+18%
Middlesex-London	71	17.5	55	13.5	+101%
Ottawa	131	13.2	122	12.3	+35%
Halton	82	15.0	60	10.9	+48%
Niagara	34	7.6	49	10.9	+25%
Brant	27	19.9	13	9.3	+149%
Chatham-Kent	14	13.2	10	9.2	-5%
Simcoe-Muskoka	73	13.5	46	8.5	+32%
Windsor-Essex	37	9.5	32	8.2	+80%
Leeds, Grenville & Lanark	7	4.1	13	7.6	-55%
Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph	43	15.8	20	7.2	+43%
Waterloo	46	7.4	43	6.9	+5%
Southwestern Ontario	13	6.5	13	6.6	+55%
Sudbury	13	3.3	23	6.0	-20%
Northwestern	5	5.7	4	5.0	+25%
Kingston Frontenac	3	1.5	7	3.4	-29%
Ontario total					+30%